Heat wave

Leer en español. Southeast Michigan seemed like the perfect “climate haven.” “My family has owned my home since the ‘60s. … Even when my dad was a kid and lived there, no floods, no floods, no floods, no floods. Until [2021],” one southeast Michigan resident told us. That June, a storm dumped more than 6 inches of rain on the region, overloading stormwater systems and flooding homes. That sense of living through unexpected and unprecedented disasters resonates with more Americans each year, we have found in our research into the past, present and future of risk and resilience. An analysis of federal disaster declarations for weather-related events puts more data behind the fears – the average number of disaster declarations has skyrocketed since 2000 to nearly twice that of the preceding 20-year period. A powerful storm system in 2023 flooded communities across Vermont and left large par...

Picture two homes on the same street: one constructed in the 1950s and the other in the 1990s. There are no trees or other shade. The air conditioning units are identical, recently replaced, and operating perfectly. Identical thermostats are set at 82 degrees Fahrenheit (27.8 Celsius). When it’s 110 F (43.3 C) outside, the 1950s house will likely feel at least 10 F (5.6 C) warmer inside, even with the same air temperature. Why? The answer has to do with radiant heat. Radiant heat is what keeps you toasty warm at a campfire on a cold winter night. The fire doesn’t warm the air much; rather, like the Sun, most of the fire’s heat moves through invisible waves directly from the campfire to your body. In the radiant heat of the Arizona sun, the surface temperature of the uninsulated post-and-beam ceilings in my house, one of 41,000 built in Tucson during the post-World War II era, can reach over 100 F (37.8 C). The single-glazed steel windows register 122 F (50 C...

Scorching temperatures have put millions of Americans in danger during recent heat waves, with heat extremes hitting states from coast to coast. Phoenix hit 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 Celsius) or higher every day for over three weeks in July 2023. Other major cities, from Las Vegas to Miami, experienced relentless high temperatures, which residents described as “hell on earth.” While the evening news runs footage of miserable sunbathers and joggers dousing themselves with water, these images conceal a growing hidden crisis: the millions of older adults who are suffering behind closed doors. As researchers who study older adults’ health and climate change, we have found that two societal trends point to a potentially dire future: The population is getting older, and temperatures are rising. During the July 2023 heat wave, people gathered at the Justa Center, a day cooling center in downtown Phoenix for people age 55...

Weather forecasts have gotten quite good over the years, but their temperatures aren’t always spot on – and the result when they underplay extremes can be lethal. Even a 1-degree difference in a forecast’s accuracy can be the difference between life and death, our research shows. As economists, we have studied how people use forecasts to manage weather risks. In a new working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, we looked at how human survival depends on the accuracy of temperature forecasts, particularly during heat waves like large parts of the U.S. have been experiencing in recent days. We found that when the forecasts underplayed the risk, even small forecast errors led to more deaths. Our results also show that improving forecasts pays off. They suggest that making forecasts 50% more accurate would save 2,200 lives per year across the country and would have a net value that’s nearly twice the annual budget of the National Weather Ser...

Extreme heat has been breaking records across Europe, Asia and North America, with millions of people sweltering in heat and humidity well above “normal” for days on end. Death Valley hit a temperature of 128 degrees Fahrenheit (53.3 degrees Celsius) on July 16, 2023 – not quite the world’s hottest day on record, but close. Phoenix broke a record heat streak with 19 straight days with temperatures above 110 F (43.3 C), and had more in the forecast, accompanied by several nights that never got below 90 F (32.2 C). Globally, Earth likely had its hottest week on modern record in early July. Heat waves are becoming supercharged as the climate changes – lasting longer, becoming more frequent and getting just plain hotter. One question a lot of people are asking is: “When will it get too hot for normal daily activity as we know it, even for young, healthy adults?” The answer goes beyond the temperature you see on the thermometer. It’s...