Climate change, the director of the EU Copernicus program:«This is why I have low expectations about Cop28» – The interview

The words of the director of the Copernicus climate change service Carlo Buontempo a few days after the UN conference in Dubai:«I hoped it could be an opportunity for oil-producing countries but I don't see encouraging signs»

Tomorrow, November 30th, in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, the Cop28, the twenty-eighth edition of the annual meeting attended by all the countries that have ratified the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.Between unexpected absences (starting with that of the American president Joe Biden) and controversy over the host country, the conference begins with even lower expectations than usual."I think it will be the umpteenth conference at which an agreement on emissions will not be reached, so I don't expect great results", he confesses to Open Carlo Buontempo, director of the climate change service of the European Copernicus programme.He will also be in Dubai in the next few days for COP28, not to participate personally in the negotiations but to bring Copernicus data and observations into the conference pavilions.

On 17 and 18 November, according to Copernicus data, we exceeded 2°C of global warming compared to the pre-industrial period for the first time.Should we already consider the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement lost?

«It's true, for the first time we have exceeded this threshold of 2°C compared to the pre-industrial period, but this is a daily figure.The data to which the Paris Agreement refers is averaged over twenty years or more, so these are two different things.That said, it is true that we are getting closer to exceeding this 1.5°C threshold on a weekly, monthly or even annual basis.I don't think there are many climate scientists who think we can stay below a degree and a half of warming all the time.We currently think that this threshold will be exceeded around 2034-2035 and there is not much we can do to avoid it.The real discussion is another:once we have exceeded this threshold, will we be able to go back below it in the following decades?The answer depends largely on our ability to decarbonize and reach zero emissions as soon as possible."

In recent years, the European Union has established itself internationally for its most ambitious climate policies.How do you evaluate the action taken so far and what still needs to be worked on?

«Europe has moved quickly and organizedly on all fronts regarding climate policies:mitigation, adaptation and also observation.Copernicus is a unique program in the world from this point of view.At the same time, Europe has not moved enough.If the aim is to achieve zero emissions, the effort is commendable but it is not enough.There is a lot to do and with each passing year the game becomes more complicated.It's not for me to tell politicians what to do, but the physics is clear:to stabilize the temperature we must reach zero emissions.And the more we continue to add greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the more vertical the decrease profile necessary will be to keep us below the thresholds we were referring to."

Are you afraid that with a change of majority in the next European elections we could take steps backwards on climate policies?

«We citizens are the ones who have our future in our hands.It is up to us to choose the politicians who represent us most based on the challenges we perceive as priorities.I think that the climate issue is not only the priority, but the greatest challenge that humanity has ever had to face.As a citizen I will therefore try to vote in a direction suited to these personal interests of mine.After that, everyone is responsible for their own choices.We will work with any government and majority."

Europe is also the continent that is warming the fastest.Why does this happen?

«Over the last 30 years, Europe has warmed at almost double the rate of the rest of the world.Unfortunately, as often happens with climate, we don't have a simple explanation.There are several phenomena that may have contributed.Within the European domain, for example, there is a good part of the Arctic Ocean, which has lost a lot of polar ice.Then there is the loss of snow and ice in the Alps and Pyrenees and the general decrease in snow days across Europe.Then there is the drought and drying up of the southern part of the continent to take into account.These are certainly some of the factors that may have played a role in making Europe the continent that, with the exception of the Arctic, is warming the fastest."

Cop28 starts tomorrow in Dubai.Do you feel optimistic?

«I think there are not many people who are optimistic about this COP.I think it will be the umpteenth conference where no agreement on emissions is reached, so I don't expect great results.The steps we have taken from the Paris Agreement to today, considering the size of the problem, have been quite small."

The president of Cop28, Sultan Al-Jaber, is also the director of a fossil fuel giant.Does this contribute to the entire conference losing credibility?

«I don't have a strong opinion on the matter.When it was announced that Cop28 would take place in Dubai, I thought the opposite:that it could be a great opportunity for oil-producing countries to show a change in priorities in terms of investments.At the moment, however, the signs we see are not particularly encouraging."

On the cover:Graphic design by Vincenzo Monaco