«2023 will be the hottest year ever recorded on Earth»:Copernicus' prediction

The report from the EU satellite observation programme:«In recent months all temperature records have been shattered»

There are almost two months left until the end of the year but we can already say with some certainty that 2023 will be the hottest year on record.This is stated by data from Copernicus, the European Union satellite Earth observation programme, which uses billions of readings from satellites, ships, planes and meteorological stations for its analyses.The latest bulletin shows that October 2023 was the warmest ever recorded globally, with an average temperature of 15.3°C, 0.85°C above the average of the last thirty years.And if we add to this data the temperatures of the previous months and the forecast for November and December, everything seems to indicate that 2023 will set a new record.«October 2023 saw exceptional anomalies, after four months of global temperature records shattered», observes Samantah Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus service dedicated to climate change.«We can say almost with certainty – he adds – that 2023 will be the hottest year on record».

Records broken in 2023

Taking into consideration the first ten months of the year, from January to October, the global average temperature for 2023 was 1.43°C higher than the pre-industrial average, i.e. the period between 1850 and 1900.This is also higher than the first ten months of 2016, which to date still holds the record for the hottest year on record.What worries experts is the fact that the Paris Agreements, signed just eight years ago, risk becoming obsolete already.On that occasion, in fact, political leaders from all over the world committed to keeping the increase in global temperatures this century "well below" 2°C and to do everything possible not to exceed the threshold of 1 ,5°C.A limit that according to experts is essential not to exceed if we want to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.Less than a decade has passed since the signing of the agreement and that threshold has already been crossed several times.In the first months of 2023 alone, the world recorded around 75 days above the 1.5°C limit.

The "sense of urgency" in view of Cop28

The main cause of this situation is obviously man-made global warming.This time however, as already happened in 2016, there is another factor that has contributed to making things even worse.This is El Niño, a climate phenomenon that occurs on average every five years and causes a strong warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean and, consequently, of the entire planet.Last summer, several areas of the world had to deal with temperatures never seen before.A situation that has not spared even Europe, grappling with what Copernicus himself defined as «the hottest summer ever».The rapid succession of record temperatures only adds to the pressure on climate negotiations.In fact, Copernicus' warning comes a few weeks before the start of COP28, the annual meeting in which UN countries discuss all the policies necessary to tackle the climate crisis.This year the conference will be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and according to Samantah Burgess “the sense of urgency for ambitious action has never been stronger”.If only for the fact that the consequences of climate change are now clear for everyone to see.And the records broken year after year are there to remind us of this.

Photo credits:EPA | A firefighter deals with a fire near Alberta, Canada (June 8, 2023)