The IEA report on the energy market in 2030:«50% of electricity from renewable sources and electric cars increased tenfold»

According to the International Energy Agency, renewables have had “a phenomenal increase”.But to achieve the objectives set by the Paris Agreement, a change of pace is needed

The path is the right one, but the pace at which we are traveling along it is still too slow.The alarm is raised by World Energy Outlook 2023, published today by the International Energy Agency (IEA).The report speaks of "a phenomenal increase" in clean energy sources such as solar and wind, but warns that demand for fossil fuels is still too high to maintain the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the increase in average global temperatures at 1.5°C.To hit the target set in 2015, considered fundamental by the scientific community to avoid some of the worst consequences of climate change, a change of pace is also needed in energy policies.«The transition to clean energy is happening all over the world and is unstoppable – commented the executive director of the IEA Faith Birol -.It's not a question of 'if', it's just a question of 'how soon'."

The scenario from now to 2030

From the IEA's latest World Energy Outlook it is clear that by the end of the decade the energy system will be radically different from today's.Any examples?In 2030 the number of electric cars circulating in the world will be 10 times greater than today.Solar PV will generate more energy than the entire U.S. energy system currently produces.More heat pumps will be sold worldwide than fossil fuel boilers.Or again:Investments for new offshore wind farm projects will be three times higher than those for the construction of new gas or coal-fired power plants.According to IEA estimates, the global energy mix in 2030 will be made up of 50% renewable sources, compared to 30% today.In short, the direction taken is the right one.However, the IEA warns, “even stronger measures would be needed to keep alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C”.

The gas market

The report also warns about possible developments in the natural gas market.According to the document, the surge in new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects is set to add more than 250 billion cubic meters per year of new capacity by 2050.This will lead to a reduction in LNG prices and allay concerns about gas supply, especially in Europe.At the same time, the IEA warns, this situation risks creating an excess of supply.“Taking into account the tensions and volatility that characterize traditional energy markets today, claims that oil and gas represent safe choices for the world's energy and climate future appear weaker than ever,” Birol explained.

The five pillars of the IEA

Global demand for coal, oil and gas will peak before 2030, according to World Energy Outlook estimates.2025, in particular, should be the year in which global carbon dioxide emissions linked to energy production will reach the highest value ever recorded.At that point, the descent should begin.And as burdensome as decarbonization energy policies may be, "the costs of inaction could be enormous," the agency warns.According to the IEA report, there are five pillars to follow to get back on track and achieve the objectives set for the next few years.First:triple global renewable capacity.Second:reduce methane emissions linked to fossil fuels by 75%.Third:incentivize investments in clean energy in developing countries.Fourth:invest in energy efficiency.And finally, say goodbye in a definitive but "orderly" way to fossil fuels.

Photo credits:EPA/Tannen Maury | A wind energy facility in Refugio, Texas (October 30, 2021)