The Po is as dry as in summer.Is this the prelude to an alarming new year of drought?

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Dry rivers, lakes below their usual levels, increasingly thin snowpacks, hydroelectric power at a standstill, agriculture in serious difficulty.The weekend will bring cold weather and probably snow and rain, but Italy and, in particular, the northern regions, are grappling with a prolonged lack of precipitation which heralds an alarming new year of drought.

The dry Po is the worst crisis of the last 70 years

The above-normal temperatures and the lack of rain in these winter months have dried out Northern Italy and the snowfall has been insufficient to replenish the waterways.According to data from the Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences (ISAC) and the CNR, collected in the Drought Observatory bulletin, 2022 was the driest year since 1800 with a deficit of 30% at the end of the period.In the North the percentage of less rain rises to 40%:out of 12 months, only December was average.The same argument can be extended to the snowy season.

The first months of 2023 were no better.The mild temperatures in February further thinned the snow cover in the Alpine regions with repercussions on watercourses, reports the latest communication from the Observatory of the National Association of Consortia for the Management and Protection of the Territory and Irrigation Waters (ANBI).In Piedmont the flow rate of almost all rivers is decreasing considerably (Sesia -74%, Stura di Demonte -52%, Stura di Lanzo -34%, Toce -46%);in Lombardy, the snow cover, although higher than last year, stands at around 59% of the historical average and the Adda, Serio and Oglio rivers are at minimum levels;in Friuli Venezia Giulia, the hydrometric level of the Tagliamento and Cellina are lower than 2022;in Veneto, apart from the Piave, the other rivers, including the Adige, remain at their lowest.

“The condition of the Po river is dramatic which, along its entire course, records flows below the historic minimum,” observes the Observatory.Compared to the average, the levels are 23.53% lower in Piacenza and 73% in the further upstream sections:in Turin, the flow rate is 15.7 m3/s (normally in this period it is 60.2 m3/s), in Pontelagoscuro we are now close to the minimum flow limit to counteract the advancement of the salt wedge.In the Pavia area the river is 3.3 meters below hydrometric zero with the banks reduced to sandy beaches.

The satellite images of Copernicus, the Earth observation program managed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Commission, processed by the ADAM (Advanced geospatial data management) platform, which compare the environmental conditions on the ground in February 2021 and 2023, show the extent of the water deficit of the Po in the central-western part is emblematic.

The Po District is, in fact, practically divided in two by drought.The central-western part is still affected by last year's intense and long-lasting drought, which was not filled by autumn and winter rainfall.Large areas are in an "extreme drought" situation, communicate the Po River District Authority.Things are better in the south-eastern Lombardy plain and in Emilia Romagna, where rainfall has been more consistent and the situation is "normal".

Also decreasing are lake basin levels.Lake Maggiore is at 38% full, Lario at 18.8%, Sebino at 15%.Lake Garda has subsided to such an extent that in recent days the isthmus connecting Isola dei Conigli to Manerba del Garda has resurfaced.Now the islet can be reached on foot from the mainland.


In February this year, the waters of Garda they have an average level of 44 centimeters above the hydrometric zero and a discharge level of 14 cubic meters per second.A year ago, at this time, the average level was more than double, 106 centimeters.In 2013 it was 122 centimeters, in 2003, 129 centimeters.A worrying drop also witnessed by Arpa Lombardia which estimated a drop in water reserves for the region of 44%, reports Geopop.

Will it be a dry summer?

Do today's droughts herald the drought that awaits us next summer?At the moment it is not possible to say with certainty, much will depend on the snow accumulation and spring rains.“There are no certainties yet for next summer, but if it doesn't rain in March and April, the situation this summer will be even worse,” comment Roberto Perotti, president of the Order of Geologists of Lombardy.

“If it were to rain more or less on average in the spring, we would probably carry with us the suffering of last year and have some difficulties, but we would not enter into a crisis.If it rains significantly less than average, then we will enter a crisis, because we will have two consecutive dry years.If it rains significantly above average, however, we will recover last year's deficit and be calm." explains in an interview with Linkiesta Emanuele Romano, researcher at the CNR Water Research Institute and expert in water resource management and drought.

In themselves “this year's data are not sensationally serious.However, they must be read in relation to the fact that the system is already under stress due to last year's very strong drought", adds Romano.“What still causes concern here, as in the Po district, is the fact that some water resources have long recharge times:It's not enough for it to rain for three months to regenerate them.Surface resources and smaller underground resources have emerged from the difficult situation, but we cannot say the same for the larger underground resources:we are monitoring the situation, but it will take at least two years before we know what impact the latest drought has had on them."

Snowfall at high altitude and its accumulation are another indicator to take into consideration to understand whether this year will also be dry because the snowpack conserves water resources in the winter and then releases them in the spring.In other words, the more it snows in the Alps in the winter months, the more water will be slowly released for thawing.

“Currently in the Po basin there is 1/3 of snow compared to the last decade.The time for accumulating snow is running out, it will start to melt in spring,” we read in a Twitter thread from the CIMA Research Foundation (International Center for Research in Environmental Monitoring).The situation is only slightly better in the North East where CIMA estimates half of the snow water resources compared to the last decade in the Adige river.

Second a recent study published on Nature Climate Change, only in the last century has the duration of the snow cover shortened by more than a month, something never seen for 600 years now.For this reason, it will be essential to monitor the level of rainfall in the coming months.

Finally, in the Po Delta the salt wedge is also a concern.“If the water table that feeds the river is lowered, the salt water from the sea will tend to advance inland, not being overwhelmed by the mass of fresh water.This will create a wedge inland with salt water:the wells near the delta will extract salt water and not fresh water, and it will be a problem in agriculture", it reads in the bulletin of the Basin Authority.

A problem, that of “salt wedge”, which is not born today, how he explained last summer in an article in Repubblica Antonello Pasini, climate physicist for the CNR.The rise in sea level and the water abstractions of recent decades, which have lowered the land, were already causing the "salt wedge" to enter the interior, allowing sea water to reach the wells that went to fish salt water from the aquifers, thus preventing it from being used both to irrigate the fields and to quench people's thirst.

“The situation is worse than last year”, when losses of six billion euros in crops were recorded, writes the National Association of Land and Irrigation Water Management and Protection Consortia.“From durum wheat for pasta to tomato sauce, from great cheeses such as parmigiano reggiano and grana padano to the most prestigious cured meats such as Parma ham or culatello di Zibello up to fruit and vegetables”, there is a third at risk of agri-food production.

What solutions?

“Week after week, the water situation worsens in a country, penalized by the absence of infrastructure capable of counteracting the consequences of the climate crisis.Thus it happens that in the South we are forced to release quantities of water into the sea, exceeding the capacity of the reservoirs and that in the North only a small part of the snow melting that has already begun is capitalized", highlight Massimo Gargano, General Director of ANBI.

Italy – continues Gargano – could soon find itself in the same situation as France, close to water rationing in some areas of the country, or the United Kingdom, where quotas on the purchases of some agricultural products, such as peppers, tomatoes and lettuce, have already begun .According to the CNR, ANBI always reports in its latest bulletin, a percentage between 6% and 15% of the Italian population now lives in territories exposed to severe or extreme drought.“Given the data in hand, it is reasonable to assume that, for at least three and a half million Italians, water from the tap can no longer be taken for granted”, observe the president of ANBI, Francesco Vincenzi.

“If we want to limit the serious consequences that the climate situation is having for Italy, we must immediately equip ourselves to better manage an emergency situation, applying solutions for the optimization of the use of water resources and starting interventions to increase water reserves:from making existing works more efficient to the creation of new multifunctional basins, as envisaged by the Lakes Plan, proposed by ANBI and Coldiretti", states Gargano.

The solutions mentioned by the general director of ANBI are contemplated in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) which provides 3.2 billion euros for construction of 10 thousand basins by 2030.At the moment, however, "only 223 projects have started and just 2% have been completed", it reads in an article about Lifegate. 

The government's response "hasn't really happened", continues Gargano, referring to the 1.9 billion tender from the Development and Cohesion Fund for water and irrigation interventions in which managing bodies and the world of consortia participated:“Unspent money that would be ready to finance interventions”.To HANDLE, Gargano he said which urgently need a national water plan, with a framework of interventions, with rules and resources and the establishment of a single agency for decisions, with coordination powers, because today the water issue is dealt with by three different ministries:Infrastructure, Environment and Agriculture”.

Meanwhile, local authorities are trying to coordinate to combat the water crisis in Garda.“Together, we have taken note of the critical situation we are experiencing and agreed that everyone will make their own share of sacrifice to save water resources.We then learned with satisfaction of the efforts already made by the consortia of downstream users:experiments aimed at using water more sparingly and with less expense", explains the general director of the Garda Community in Peschiera, Pierlucio Ceresa.

In the meantime, Minister Lollobrigida has started the public consultation on the Climate Change Adaptation Plan to plan interventions in the area against the recurrence of extreme events and drought seasons.

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