What's in the IPCC report on climate change and why we need to act now

The document by the experts of the United Nations body not only illustrates the risks of climate inaction which become more concrete every day, but also suggests solutions that governments and industries could adopt to reduce the climate impact of human activities

“The window for action is closing rapidly.”This is the most important message contained in the last one IPCC report on the state of action on climate change in 2023.In the 37 pages of the summary for policymakers – the full report has not yet been published – the experts of the United Nations body have summarized the conclusions reached by the panel of scientists who examined it in detail thousands of studies on climate change.The document summarizes "the state of knowledge of climate change, its large-scale impact and the risks it entails".The bottom line is clear, humans' excessive consumption of fossil fuels is harming us all, but it is harming some more than others.The report, however, not only illustrates the risks of climate inaction which are becoming more concrete every day, but also suggests solutions that governments and industries could adopt to reduce the climate impact of human activities, which the IPCC indicates as certain cause of global warming ongoing in recent years.What is done between now and 2030 will have the biggest impact on any slowing of temperature rise.

What is the current situation?

The global average temperature is currently 1.1 degrees higher than in the pre-industrial period.The increase has been faster from 1970 to today than in any other historical period studied.This warming threshold, all in all modest compared to what we are facing if drastic action is not taken, has already generated "traumas" due to extreme meteorological events which are much more frequent today than in the past.Just as it has accentuated the loss of human "lives and cultures", that of terrestrial and marine biodiversity, and has worsened global agricultural yields.And it will continue to do so as temperatures rise.

The report indicates that it is "very probable" that the rise in sea level seen from 1971 to today, which has accelerated in recent decades, going from 1.3 millimeters per year to 3.7 millimeters per year, is caused by human activities.Furthermore, the document states that it is "probable" that human activities have generated the increase in extreme weather events seen in recent years.We talk about heat waves, water bombs, floods, droughts, landslides, landslides, tropical cyclones.According to the IPCC, they are at least 3.3 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change.The most affected macro-areas are in Africa, Asia, and South America.Less developed countries, small islands, and arctic regions.With almost absolute certainty, the report informs that due to climate change, mortality has increased in all regions of the world.As well as the incidence of diseases transmitted through food and water, mental health problems related to high temperatures, and reductions in food production.The more the temperature increases, the more these phenomena will worsen.

Even if the necessary emissions cuts were immediate, the Earth would continue to warm for decades to come.The result is that a child born in 2020 has a considerable chance of seeing the planet's average temperature increase beyond 2100.The more recently you were born, the more exposed you are to risks, as illustrated by this graph.

However, there is a difference between humans and humans, the report highlights.Of the 8 billion people who inhabit the earth, approximately 10% are responsible for a share of greenhouse gas emissions of between 35 and 45 percent.The 50%, however, produce just 13-15%.And in fact it is precisely the most vulnerable communities that suffer the most from the consequences of the actions of the wealthiest.Suffice it to say that the entire African continent, where they live as well 1.2 billion people, produced less than 4% of greenhouse gas emissions.

Future prospects

According to the report, the threshold of 1.5 degrees of warming, considered fundamental to avoid the most catastrophic consequences;the same beyond which the States had committed not to go with the Paris agreements of 2015, will come overcome by the first half of the 2030s.This will also happen due to the greenhouse gas emissions already accumulated in the atmosphere, which cannot be removed except with cutting technologies. carbon capture, which are currently far from large-scale use.If we want to return to the 1.5 degree threshold, greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 will have to be halved compared to today's.While carbon neutrality must be achieved by 2050.In any case, even with a drastic and immediate cut in emissions, the effects of the reduction on the climate would not be visible for about 20 years, while the effects on the atmospheric composition could be seen within five years.

The IPCC hypothesizes four main warming scenarios.The first is what you would have with 1.5 degrees more than in the pre-industrial period, the second with 2 degrees, the third with 3, and the fourth with 4 or more.Even just between the first two, the difference is considerable.With 1.5 degrees of warming, the world could still have coral reefs and Arctic ice in the summer.At 2 degrees of heating, almost certainly not.In essence, 1.5 degrees is the limit to keep the world similar to how we know it today.Beyond the threshold, entire communities may have to change their lives, leaving the places where they grew up.The problem arises especially for settlements located at sea level.According to the report, humanity is unlikely to be able to keep the increase in global temperature within 2 degrees centigrade.All this requires immediate action, as according to the report, it is likely that Current policies will cause the Earth's average temperature to increase by 3.2 degrees in 2100.

The effects of various heating levels are illustrated in an infographic.In all scenarios, the maximum temperature of the hottest day of the year is expected to increase significantly, with peaks of 150% in monsoon regions, temperate zones and semi-arid ones, such as those of the southern Mediterranean.In the second line of the graph, you can see how the areas that are already characterized by low soil humidity will see this figure decrease further.On the other hand, in areas that are particularly humid all year round, this figure will increase considerably.In essence, the extremes will become even more extreme. The same goes for the heaviest rainfall of the year, which will be increasingly similar to the storms that we have seen become increasingly frequent in recent years, and which have also hit our country, for example in the Marche.

Climate change will have more serious effects the greater its magnitude.In the graph below, the IPCC illustrates how the risk of biodiversity loss, heat-related health problems in humans and decreased food production would change under various warming scenarios.The images are eloquent, but it is important to note that the relationship between the increase in temperature and the increase in risks is not linear.

This is due to the existence of some tipping points, i.e. points of no return which, once triggered, can no longer be stopped.For example, mountain and Arctic glaciers reflect sunlight, limiting the Earth's warming.At a certain point, however, their melting could be such as to trigger a vicious cycle impossible to stop in which more melting leads to a greater increase in temperature, which in turn leads to even more melting, and so on.Others tipping points they concern equatorial rainforests, which could reach the point of no longer regenerating, and the melting of permafrost, which releases methane into the atmosphere, a short-lived greenhouse gas, but 30 times more powerful than carbon dioxide.Finally, ocean warming could change the circulation of currents, with unpredictable consequences.However, the greater the warming, the worse its effects will be.Even if we act now, sea levels will continue to rise for millennia, but when they stop and how much they rise are related to how much the temperature will increase.

What should we do?

But that doesn't mean there's no way to meet deadlines.According to the 2020 data analyzed, humanity still has a 50% chance of returning below 1.5 degrees of warming after an initial peak above this threshold.Overall and with adequate political, social and economic interventions, between now and 2050, the possibility of remaining below 2 degrees is 67%.However, by maintaining current policies, which also include already planned investments in fossil fuels, the 2 degree limit will be broken with a probability of 83%.The calculations were made considering that every thousand gigatons of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere corresponds to an increase of 0.45 degrees Celsius.

The report suggests increase the share of solar and wind in the energy mix, improve energy efficiency, make cities suitable for pedestrians and cyclists, reduce nitrogen pollution produced by agriculture, reduce food waste and promote sustainable diets, restore natural environments, rapidly cut methane emissions.The document points out that private individuals and small producers also have the possibility of switching to renewable energy and diversifying their supply sources to avoid blackouts.We then read about the mitigation of production processes and a circular use of materials.The importance of electric vehicles is underlined and how these have become increasingly widespread thanks to the improvement of batteries.

The city they will have to be developed in a manner compact and with clear planning, favoring the sustainable mobility of pedestrians and cyclists.Workplaces must be close to homes and easily accessible by public transport.Planning should be as long-term as possible.industries will have to prefer sustainable materials, and their extraction will have to be supported by a regeneration of the ecosystems that generated them.As regards nutrition, cultivation and breeding, we must return to a community approach, which reduces the distances traveled and integrates with the protection and conservation of ecosystems.The conservation and treatment of water, specifically, require particular attention.By adopting these solutions, we will not only mitigate climate change, but the quality of people's lives will improve.Environmental protection must be combined with that of the communities most at risk, which need more drastic interventions to adapt to climate change.

The money is there

All these measures are considered by the IPCC «technically implementable immediately» given the political will and the allocation of funds, which the richer regions will have to pay to the poorer ones so that adaptation can take place for everyone.Furthermore, the IPCC points out that solutions can only be truly implemented when there is collaboration between governments, civil society and the private sector.The problem is not economic, given that it is reiterated several times that the money is there, but the will to spend it to do what is needed is lacking.Choices must favor inclusive development, give priority to risk reduction, fair solutions and justice.Specifically, adaptation must occur by the 2030s, before climatic conditions make it too difficult to implement, and it must be part of a system that does not give up economic growth.These actions have also been summarized by the IPCC in an infographic.

Compared to 2010, solar energy production has become cheaper by 85%, wind production by 55%, and lithium ion battery production by 85%.The political will, and the allocation of funds, at the moment, however, do not seem to be there, given that on a global scale, the funds allocated to fossil fuels are even greater than those dedicated to green energy.Once emissions are drastically reduced, there will be some that cannot be eliminated, arising from agriculture, aviation, transport and some industrial processes.These will have to be removed from the atmosphere with technologies carbon capture which are currently in the embryonic stage.