World Meteorological Organization (WMO):The Earth could exceed the 1.5°C threshold by 2027

According to a study by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in the next five years the Earth will experiment new temperature records and global warming will probably exceed 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, a threshold beyond which there could be potentially irreversible disastrous consequences for the planet.

New #StateofClimate update from WMO and @MetOffice:

66% chance that annual global surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of next 5 years

98% likelihood that at least one of next five years will be warmest on
record. pic.twitter.com/30KcRT9Tht

— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) May 17, 2023

The relationship, published on May 17, found a 66% chance of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold in at least one year between 2023 and 2027 (last year for the five-year period between 2022 and 2026 the probability was 50%).For each year from 2023 to 2027, global near-surface temperatures are projected to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C above the preindustrial average.This would be a marked acceleration of human impact on the global climate system that would plunge the world into "uncharted territory", the UN agency has warned.With the Paris climate agreement in 2015, states committed to trying to keep global temperatures to no more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C indicated in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years.However, WMO warns that we will exceed the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis and with increasing frequency,” commented WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas.“This will have far-reaching implications for health, food security, water management and the environment.”

Global average surface temperatures have never exceeded the 1.5 C mark.The highest average in previous years was 1.28°C above pre-industrial levels.

Many areas of the world saw new record temperatures during last year's heat waves, but the report says these spikes could be just the beginning, as climate disruption and the impact of an El Niño weather system developing countries combine to create heat waves around the world.

El Niño is part of an oscillating weather system developing in the Pacific.For the past three years, the world has been in the opposite phase, known as La Niña, which has had a dampening effect on rising temperatures across the globe.With the end of La Niña and the development of a new El Niño, there is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record, scientists have found.

The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the world and this appears to be having an impact on global weather systems, including the jet stream, a band of winds blowing from west to east around the planet that has shocked temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere.We saw it in the case of polar vortex which has caused dozens of deaths in the United States in late 2022.

According to the report, rainfall is likely to decrease in the Amazon, Central America, Australia and Indonesia this year.This is particularly bad news for the Amazon:Scientists are increasingly worried about a vicious cycle of warming and deforestation can transform the rainforest into a savannah with disastrous consequences for the planet that relies on rainforests as huge carbon sinks.

According to the report, above-average precipitation is likely to occur in northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and the Sahel over the next five years.

In November, governments will gather for the annual United Nations climate conference, COP28, to assess progress made towards meeting the goals set out in the Paris Agreement.On this occasion, observe The Guardian, we will realize that we are far from reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43% in this decade, a crucial objective to have a good chance of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C.

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