Floods in the Marche:we need the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan

The weekly round-up on the climate crisis and data on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

Eleven dead, two missing, over fifty injured, enormous damage to homes and infrastructure.It is the sad balance of severe floods which devastated the Marche between 15 and 16 September.In two or three hours about 400 mm of rain fell, he said the Civil Protection, a third of the rain that usually falls in a year.The provinces of Ancona, Pesaro and Urbino were the most affected.In Senigallia the Misa river broke its banks and invaded the city center.

Yes question on the real possibility of predicting an event of this severity, on the effectiveness of the Civil Protection weather warning systems and on the state of the prevention measures adopted in recent years by the Region and Municipality to limit the impact of extreme events, which unfortunately are increasingly frequent now at all latitudes.

In the meantime have been opened two investigations, one by the Ancona Prosecutor's Office and one by the Urbino Prosecutor's Office.The Public Prosecutor's Office of Ancora has opened a case against unknown persons, hypothesizing the crimes of multiple manslaughter and negligent flooding, and is trying to understand above all whether there was a failure to alert the Municipalities on the part of the Region.On the afternoon of 15 September, the Marche Civil Protection department had issued a weather bulletin in which it did not highlight any hydraulic and hydrogeological criticality throughout the region (green alert) and signaled a yellow alert, i.e. an ordinary level of criticality, for thunderstorms, only in the internal areas of the provinces of Pesaro and Urbino and Ancona.The Urbino Prosecutor's Office has instead opened an investigation with the sole hypothesis of the crime of negligent flooding.Also in this case the chain of alerts of the Municipalities affected by the rains is being investigated.

What happened? As explains al Corriere della Sera Bernardo Gozzini, director of the Lamma-CNR center, the conditions for a storm called V-shaped occurred in the Marche region, i.e. V-shaped, continuously fed by currents of humid air.In these cases, the humidity is first raised by an ascending current, then when it is very cold it expands like a fan, as happens to smoke from a fireplace.

“It was a self-healing storm cell,” he states to Huffington Post, Gianmaria Sannino, Head of the ENEA Climate Modeling and Impacts Laboratory.It is a storm that “continued to build, remaining in the same area for several hours.As the air blew over the mountain, it was increasingly forced to rise, to generate clouds full of water which were then discharged into the opposite generation to where the air flow was".

These types of storms they are called that because “as they are discharged, they self-sustain thanks to the contribution of the humidity produced by the sea.When it is hot, the amount of vapor in the atmosphere increases and therefore the amount of water that can turn into rain.If there is a sea nearby that is not too deep (with water, therefore, at a fairly high temperature), everything is amplified:the quantity of vapor that 'transforms into a cloud' becomes enormous and therefore the rains take on a cloudburst character".In the case of the Marche, "the currents meant that the storm did not disperse, but remained stuck in the area for hours.This is why the amount of rain that has fallen has reached levels that normally accumulate over months."

Because such an event was not easily foreseeable. According to Sannino, a distinction must be made between two points of view, the climatological one and the meteorological one.From a climatological point of view, after a dry summer and with the beginning of the meteorological autumn (which begins on September 1st) and the arrival of colder air infiltrations from northern Europe, events of this type were foreseeable, but it was impossible to establish where in detail.

Weather forecast models, based on algorithms and equations used throughout the world, explain further Gozzini, allow you to predict day by day whether there will be a very strong storm, but not to establish precisely where and when.In particular on 15 September, "a certain phenomenon had been predicted, but the available tools did not allow its impact to be precisely predicted" and this could have led to the underestimation of the storm event by the Civil Protection.

Delays in prevention measures. The first reconnaissances by the Carabinieri have also begun to determine the state of the infrastructures and flooded waterways and to verify whether, in recent years, the successive municipal and regional administrations have adopted the necessary measures to prevent such extreme meteorological events.

Although the mayors said they were not adequately informed about the severity of what was about to happen and were caught off guard, there had been some warning signs in past years.In 2014, in fact, a very similar flood caused three deaths and 179 million euros in damage, once again particularly in the areas of Senigallia, Ostra and Ostra Vetere, hit in recent days.And, although according to the latest report on hydrogeological instability in Italy by ISPRA, in the Marche at most areas with medium hydraulic danger (P2) are indicated, which risk floods or extreme scenarios between 100 and 200 years, reading the Civil Protection Emergency Plan of the Municipality of Senigallia, explains Barbara Lastoria, hydraulic engineer of the Higher Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), "in the city between 1892 and 2014 there were episodes of flooding every 8 years.In 2014, in three hours, the level of the Misa River went from below the warning level to above the alarm level, reaching 6.00 meters."

Behind the discrepancy between the ISPRA mapping and the Senigallia Civil Protection plan could be a failure to record and transmit data on possible extreme events by the Marche Region, writes Luca Martinelli on Manifest.A high level of danger implies "a very stringent protection regime which also involves the need to ensure safety for the people who live in an area", explains Lastoria who, in another interview with Republic, introduces a further element of complexity:“Storms are different from those in our memory.They can cause real disasters.If we see even just 10 centimeters of water, it means that a river has burst its banks.You don't have to go to the garage.You don't have to take the car.You must move away from bridges and underpasses.You should not stay on the lower floors of a building if you live near a body of water.More than half of the victims of the Marche region could have been saved if they had adopted correct behaviour."

Despite all this, in all these years little or nothing was done.As regards the Misa river, the construction site to build new lamination tanks, which serve to contain excess water in the event of flooding, only began last February despite the project having been discussed for years, observe Andrea Dignani, fluvial geologist-geomorphologist, scientific consultant for the WWF, has been engaged in analysis of the Marche region for years.Furthermore, "better management of agricultural areas with small rainwater collection basins and hillside lakes also useful for dry periods" would be needed.

Does climate change have anything to do with it? “It is difficult to attribute a single episode to climate change,” explains Giulio Betti, climatologist at the Lamma-CNR Lamma centre.“What we saw, however, fits the patterns.It is an exceptional event, which follows other exceptional events of this type."And more will come, writes Ferdinando Cotugno on Tomorrow:“In Italy, at the gates of autumn, according to Legambiente there have already been 132 extreme events, and we are at the beginning of the critical season, made more dangerous by the Mediterranean with temperatures almost like the Red Sea and the hottest July-August in European history , according to Copernicus data”.

The temperatures of the Mediterranean Sea are much higher than those recorded in 2003 which led to numerous flash floods in Carrara, Val Canale, in the province of Taranto, writes meteorologist Federico Grazzini on Facebook.“As a result of global warming, the sea is accumulating a frightening amount of heat, and this in turn leads to a greater probability of extreme precipitation developing”

According to the Global Climate Risk Index 2021, continues Cotugno, “over the last twenty years, Italy has been the 22nd country in the world for climate risk, the sixth for victims, the ninth for victims in proportion to the population, the twelfth for economic impact .From 2013 to 2019, the damage from events linked to the climate emergency, according to Greenpeace, is 20.3 billion euros, approximately 3 billion per year.Every autumn we bury the dead and rebuild a country exposed more than others - due to latitude, geography, orography - to the extremes of a compromised climate".Yet, “the adaptation of the territory is at a standstill:there is a lack of planning, fight against land consumption, integrated warning systems and above all the overall vision of the National Adaptation Plan, awaiting approval by the entire legislature".

GThe extreme events of recent months are often experienced as temporary emergencies.The reality is that we live in a complex and globalized world, where everything is connected, and we still act as if we were dealing with a simple system, where an action corresponds to a single reaction and everything ends there, explains the climatologist Antonello Pasini, who spoke on 19 September in Rome, at the CNEL headquarters, to propose the establishment of a scientific consultancy body on climate and environment for the Government and Parliament.“Solving the climate crisis (which represents the litmus test of our incorrect relationship with nature) is the necessary element for the solution of all the emergencies that afflict us”, concludes Pasini.

Pakistan does not contribute to climate change but pays the price for it

A study conducted by 26 scientists from nine countries, as part of the World Weather Attribution group, he estimated that climate change may have made the rainfall that generated the floods that devastated Pakistan up to 50% heavier.According to the study's models, the rainfall was significantly heavier than it would have been without global temperatures rising by at least 1.1°C since pre-industrial times.

Most models “show a potentially very large increase in probability and intensity,” the study authors said.“There is an urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan.”

The unusually hot summer may also have played a role, amplifying the melting of Pakistan's 7,000 glaciers that feed the Indus River.However, the relative contribution of glacial meltwater to flooding is unknown, the research explains.Likewise, it is also difficult to determine the effect of the recurring La Niña weather pattern, which this year caused the floods in Australia.

After visiting some of the areas affected by the floods, the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, he declared that I have never seen such scale destruction caused by climate and launched an appeal to the international community for help Pakistan, underlining that the Asian country is a victim of climate changes produced by the most industrialized countries.“We are faced with a choice:collective action or collective suicide”, he declared Guterres. The Secretary General of the United Nations he urged countries to "tax the extra profits of fossil fuel companies and redirect the proceeds to vulnerable nations suffering increasingly severe losses from the climate crisis and people struggling with rising food and energy prices."Guterres added that "polluters must pay" for the growing damage caused by heat waves, floods, droughts and other climate impacts:“The time has come to warn fossil fuel producers, investors and intermediaries.” These are important statements, observe the editorialist of Washington Post Hamid Mir who adds:“According to experts, Pakistan is responsible for less than 1% of global emissions.Now he is paying a heavy price for the mistakes made by others.Our country has the right to demand climate justice."

Pakistan leads the so-called Group of 77, a coalition of developing countries at the United Nations, which has long been committed to advancing the issue of climate finance and the price paid by poorer nations suffering the consequences of climate change due to the industrialization of rich nations.

The first global fossil fuel registry is born

On the occasion of the climate talks during the United Nations General Assembly in New York, the Global Fossil Fuel Registry.It is the first large-scale public database to track global fossil fuel production, oil and gas reserves, and emissions.

Developed by Carbon Tracker, a non-profit think tank that studies the effects of the energy transition on financial markets, and the Global Energy Monitor, which tracks a number of global energy projects, the Global Fossil Fuel Registry is built using data from over 50,000 deposits in 89 countries, covering approximately 75% of global reserves, production and emissions.

Unlike public data maintained by the International Energy Agency, which looks at demand for fossil fuels, this database tracks what has yet to be burned. Carbon Tracker and Global Energy Monitor hope this data could help environmental and climate groups pressure national leaders to agree on stronger policies that lead to reductions in carbon dioxide emissions.“Civil society groups need to focus more on what governments intend to do in terms of licensing, whether for coal or oil and gas, and start questioning this permitting process,” he declared Mark Campanale, founder of Carbon Tracker.

Oxford University study:“Switching to renewable energy could save thousands of billions”

According to one study from the University of Oxford, switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy could save the world as much as $12 trillion by 2050.

Based on the analysis of historical data on the prices of renewable energy and fossil fuels, the researchers created a model that predicted how costs may change in the future.Fossil fuel data goes back over 100 years from 2020 and shows that, given inflation and market volatility, the price hasn't changed much.Renewable energy has only existed for a few decades, so the data is less robust, but in this time, continuous technological improvements have meant that the cost of solar and wind energy has fallen rapidly, at a rate approaching 10%. % per annum.“Our central conclusion is that we should go full speed ahead with the transition to green energy because it will save us money,” he declared at the BBC News Professor Doyne Farmer of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, among the authors of the research.

The study predicts that the price of renewable energy will continue to fall.“Our latest research shows that the scale-up of key green technologies will continue to drive down their costs, and the faster we go, the more we will save,” commented Dr Rupert Way, lead author of the report from the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. Wind and solar are already the cheapest option for new energy projects, but questions remain about how to best store energy and balance the grid when climate change leads to a decline in renewable generation.

The story of the billionaire owner of Patagonia who sold his company to fight the climate crisis

“From today, Earth is our sole shareholder,” the company announced.“All profits, in perpetuity, will go towards our mission to 'save our planet'.” Patagonia founder Yvon Chouinard, who turned his passion for climbing into one of the most successful sportswear brands in the world, he decided to give in the entire company, valued at around $3 billion, to a trust and a non-profit association to allocate all its profits - around $100 million a year - to safeguarding the planet.

Together with his wife, two children and a team of company lawyers, Chouinard, 83, has created a structure that allows Patagonia to continue operating as a for-profit company whose proceeds will benefit environmental initiatives.The Chouinard family has donated 2% of all shares and all decision-making powers to a trust, which will oversee the company's mission and values.The fund, which will be overseen by family members and their closest advisors, is intended to ensure that Patagonia lives up to its commitment to run a socially responsible company and donate its profits.The remaining 98% of the company's shares will be donated to a non-profit organization called Holdfast Collective, which will “use every dollar it receives to fight the environmental crisis, protect nature and biodiversity, and support thriving communities, as quickly as possible” .

“We hope that this will lead to a new form of capitalism that does not give rise to a world with a few rich people and many poor people", he said Chouinard in an interview.“We will give the maximum amount of money to people who are actively working to save the planet.”

Patagonia was one of the first companies to become a b-Corp, undergoing certification of compliance with certain environmental and social standards.In the 1980s the company began donating 1% of its sales to environmental groups.In 2001 the initiative was then formalized into the “1% for the Planet Scheme” program which, according to Patagonia, went as far as allocating 140 million dollars in donations for the conservation and restoration of the natural environment.In recent years the company has become more politically active, going so far as to sue the Trump administration in an attempt to protect Bears Ears National Monument.

“I feel very relieved to have put my life in order,” Chouinard said."For us this was the ideal solution."

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