United States, electricity production from renewables is about to surpass that from coal

The increase in energy produced by wind, sun and water, also encouraged by the Inflation Reduction Act, may not be enough to achieve the US's climate objectives.

• At the end of 2022, electricity production from renewables will exceed that from coal
• Yet the slowdown in the installation of new solar and wind plants risks slowing down the overtaking of renewables
• The hope is that the incentives provided by the recent Inflation Reduction Act will stimulate the installation of new capacity and the retirement of coal-fired power plants

In the United States production grows from renewable sources:by the end of 2022 the electricity generated by wind, sun and water will amount to 22 percent of the total, against the 20 percent produced by coal and 19 percent from nuclear.Compared to the same period of the previous year, it estimates the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), the analysis agency of US Department of Energy (DOE), the growth is 18 percentage points, 58 if the comparison is with 2019.

The growth rate of renewables is not enough

Yet, writes the well-known American popular science magazine Scientific American, the constraints and difficulties encountered along the entire process supply chain and trade disputes are slowing the new installations of renewables.The objective of the climate plan by Joe Biden Of reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by 2030 compared to 2005 levels depends on the growth rate of alternative sources, which in the first months of 2022 was 11 gigawatts (GW).

To achieve such a challenging emissions cut, researchers atPrinceton University they estimate that between 2022 and 2024 it will be necessary install 50 GW of new wind and solar photovoltaic power, double the 25 GW installed annually by the United States in 2020 and 2021.

The Inflation Reduction Act can accelerate new installations

The confident opinion of many analysts is that there could be a change of direction thanks to the 369 billion dollars in investments foreseen byInflation reduction act, the federal law of 2022 which, precisely, will try to curb inflation (also) by investing in the production of energy, particularly renewable ones, exploiting internal resources.

This provides that the entire energy system of the country face this growth:network operators will have to make up for the delay accumulated in the construction of new transmission lines.The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, a DOE laboratory run by the University of California, estimates that around 930 GW of new wind, solar and battery projects will need to be connected to the electricity grid, when today the total capacity is (only) around 1,150 GW.

It may take some time for them to tax indications contained in the Inflation Reduction Act become operational and the law triggers a boom in renewables.It is true that businesses today are subject to strong headwinds – interest rates high and the looming threat of a recession – but it is also true that, unlike the times when subsidies for renewables had to be extended by Congress every two years, today investors have greater certainty with incentives guaranteed for 10 years.

Coal's shadow weighs on renewables in the United States

Greater production from renewable sources equates to lower consumption fossil fuels.However, concerns about the supply chain and pace of construction of new solar and wind farms are delaying the retirement of power plants in coal.THE'IHS Markit, the global provider of information, analytics and solutions for the world's major markets, estimates a two-year delay in retirement of 13 GW of power plants.The EIA plans to stop at 8 GW in 2023.

If the use of these power plants was "parsimonious", limited to satisfying the demand peaks, the impact on the planet and people could be limited.In any case, coal is still there most used source globally for energy production and the use of this highly polluting resource remains bad news in terms of climate change.Especially for the energy transition, for which the first years are crucial and every year lost in terms of new installed capacity is a year lost for climate protection.