Moldova has chosen Europe, but is divided:what will happen now?

In the referendum for integration into the European Union, "yes" wins by a handful of votes.The outgoing president Maia Sandu goes to the run-off.

A country split in half.This is the photograph that emerges from referendum on accession to the European Union which was held on 20 October 2024 Moldova, coinciding with the presidential elections.After the initial advance of the "no" vote, the result was overturned during the night with the counting of votes arriving from abroad.In the end it has won the “yes” for a handful of preferences:50.39 percent of people are in favor of joining the EU versus 49.61 percent.

We go to ballot regarding the presidential elections, where the outgoing president Maia Sandu she failed to get reconfirmed in the first round, despite remaining in the lead with 42.45 percent of the votes, against 25.98 percent of her main challenger Alexandr Stoianoglo.

Amid accusations of “unprecedented interference” leveled at Kremlin, and counter-charges of "an unfree electoral campaign" countered by Moscow, the match between Russia and theWest this time it is played on the Moldova pitch.

What changes after the referendum 

In essence, the outcome of the referendum does not accelerate the process of accession of the former Soviet republic to the European Union.In fact, this is a consultation not necessarily requested by Brussels, called by Chișinău with the aim of changing the Constitution to join the European Union.In short, a call to the polls intended to define the geopolitical direction of the country, where even today there is a large portion of the pro-Russian population, concentrated above all in the separatist regions of Transnistria and of Gagauzia.In these two regions, in fact, the "no" to Europe was overwhelming:in Gagauzia 94.84 percent of voters voted against, in Transnistria 68.98 percent.

The road that leads to the "European family" - as the outgoing president Maia Sandu defined it - is therefore still long. Chișinău had applied in Brussels in March 2022 and the formal start of negotiations began in June 2024, in parallel with those withUkraine. THEThe date for becoming a full member has been set by Sandu for 2030.But much will depend on the outcome of the run-off between the outgoing, pro-European president and the socialist Alexandr Stoianoglo, former attorney general of Moldova, who although defending himself in favor of integration with the EU and dialogue with the USA and Russia, in the press conference he spoke of a "propaganda referendum done in the interest of some people".

Which Eastern countries are moving closer to the EU

Moldova is not the only country informer Soviet bloc or in any case Eastern Europe to have taken the first steps towards integration with the EU.THE'Ukraine, the Georgia, the Türkiye and i Western Balkans (including the Serbia, historic ally of Russia) have obtained the status of candidate countries.Obviously the accession path is long and, in the case of Moldova, it is closely linked to the completion of reforms, the fight against corruption and "deoligarchization", as well as the resolution of some internal problems such as hostilities with Transnistria.

However, the EU has already allocated various funds to support the economic growth of this country and accelerate its integration process.Last in order of time, the package of aid of 1.8 billion euros adopted a few days before the vote, on 10 October 2024:defined as "the largest package of financial support for Moldova's independence", it aims to "stimulate the Moldovan economy and bring the country closer to EU membership by accelerating reforms”.Aid that deeply irritated Moscow.

Russian reactions

The outcome of the referendum in Moldova was one of the most discussed news on Russian federal channels.Commentators close to the Kremlin have spoken of irregularities in the vote, of rampant Russophobia and an imbalance in the number of polling stations set up for Moldovan citizens residing in Russia.The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Marija Zakharova in fact, he defined it as unacceptable that just ten thousand ballot papers were distributed in Russia compared to the approximately 500,000 Moldovan citizens residing in the territory of the Russian Federation, and that they were open only two seats (in Moscow and St. Petersburg).For comparison, in Italy, where the Moldovan community is smaller (about 300,000 people) there were set up 60 seats throughout the national territory.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitrij Peskov he spoke of an "unfree electoral campaign" due to the limitations imposed on the opposition:in fact, the Moldovan authorities have put al announcement the party, media companies and various Telegram channels of the main opposition leader, Ilan Shor, convicted in absentia in 15 years for fraud and money laundering and accused by many of being the man the Kremlin would use to influence the outcome of the vote.

From criticism to threats:one of the leading Russian propagandists, Dmitry Kisilev, declared that “if we continue on this path, territorial losses for Moldova are inevitable:Transnistria will be gone forever, and the fate of Gagauzia is far from clear."The risk that the Ukrainian scenario will repeat itself, with a possible intervention by Moscow in the pro-Russian separatist regions, therefore seems to be a real threat.

The comments

The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, who just ten days before the referendum had visited Chișinău announcing the package of aid of 1.8 billion euros, congratulated the Moldovan people on the victory of the yes vote:“You did it again!Faced with Russia's hybrid tactics, Moldova proves that it is independent, strong and wants a European future!”, he wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

“We fought fairly in an unjust battle and we won.But the fight is not over.We will continue to push for peace, prosperity and the freedom to build our future,” he tweeted Maia Sandu, who spoke of "criminal gangs" and "irrefutable evidence" of an attempt to "buy 300,000 voters" to set up an electoral fraud "of an unprecedented scale".

Beyond the cross accusations of fraud and interference, the fact remains that the victory of the yes vote was snatched by a whisker.

But what impact will this narrow victory have on the EU accession process?“If this referendum had an impact on the last step before signing up for EU integration, then questions would arise.But we are at the beginning of a still long journey – he commented Alexey Tulbure, former representative of Moldova to the UN and the Council of Europe -.This referendum has more political than institutional value, and I am sure that the talks will continue.Moldovan society is divided and this vote clearly demonstrated it.And he sets a fundamental task before him:that of unifying Moldovan society.This will be Maia Sandu's priority."

The ballot for the presidential elections it will be held on November 3.And unlike before, now the two candidates have agreed to face each other in a public debate.