With these emissions, our future is mortgaged

Greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow unabated and fearlessly.Because we are the first to be unconscious and challenge the climate.

• The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by 11.4 percent in 20 years.
• This means that the temperature will also remain high for “several decades”.
• And even ecosystems are abandoning us because they can no longer absorb carbon dioxide.

The last time the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere was equal to what we are experiencing today, the evolution of the human being was in its infancy.Let's talk about a period between 5 and 6 million years ago.The average global temperature was between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius higher and sea levels were between 10 and 20 meters higher than today.In short, it was definitely another planet.A world that took millions of years to transform and become what it was until recently:that perfect world that allowed us, gem of evolution, of becoming what we are.This was, in extreme summary and in images, the conclusion of the latest bulletin on greenhouse gas emissions from the World Meteorological Organization.An annual bulletin that has now reached 20 editions.

+11.4% of CO2 in the atmosphere in just 20 years

Today the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is equal to 420 parts per million (ppm).The first time the WMO published the report, in 2004, it was 377.1 ppm. This is an increase of 42.9 ppm, equal to 11.4 percent.What does all this mean?In short, two things:the first is that our future is has now been, technically, mortgaged.Given the persistence that greenhouse gases - led by CO2, but to which methane and nitrous oxide must also be added - have in the atmosphere, it is scientifically established that the temperatures of the various geographical areas most "affected" by warming (the so-called hotspots, such as the Mediterranean and the Arctic) and, more generally, the average global temperature will increase regardless of what we do today.Even if we woke up tomorrow in a world with no more emissions, the current concentration of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere is such that the greater temperature that we are already experiencing (1.5 degrees higher than the average of the pre-industrial period from 1850 to 1900) will remain so for “several decades”, meteorologists say.

And this, it must be clarified, It doesn't mean we should feel relieved of responsibility, does not mean that we should stop acting (with the understanding that very little is being done as emissions continue to grow) because “every part per million and every tenth of a degree of temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet”, as he recalls Celestial Saul, general secretary of the WMO.And therefore every effort, even the smallest and seemingly insignificant one can save lives and avoid damage.In 2023 - in particular - the increase in CO2 concentration was 2.3 ppm.It is the twelfth consecutive year that we have managed to exceed the 2 ppm increase in just 12.It's a lot.To go from 418 to 420 ppm we released 57.1 billion tons into the atmosphere (gigatons) of greenhouse gases.A thousand (billion) of them are enough to increase the average global temperature by 0.45 degrees according to calculations by the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

And ecosystems are telling us they can't take it anymore

The second thing this new WMO bulletin tells us is that the risk we are running by going forward like this is that of ending up in a vicious circle.A circle where even ecosystems risk transforming from allies to contributing causes (the main cause is us with the overbuilding and use of coal, oil and gas) of a warmer climate.The fires, In fact, increasingly vast and extreme environments release enormous quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere.Just think of fires like the Park Fire which wiped out nearly 180,000 hectares of vegetation in California in two months – between July and September 2024.Even him oceans, As always, incredible carbon dioxide sinks are starting to slow down in their absorption work, thus leaving even more CO2 in the atmosphere, further accelerating global warming.

Even in this case there is an incredible fact that makes us understand what we are doing to the Earth's climate.It's the one linked to the radiative forcing (radiative forcing) of greenhouse gases which, from 1990 to today, increased by 51.5 percent.This is the value that makes us understand how much the ability of greenhouse gases to increase the temperature of the atmosphere has strengthened.And this is the most important magnitude.

Every part per million and every tenth of a degree of temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet.

Celeste Saulo, general secretary of the WMO

How much do we have to lower emissions to have any chance

Linking these data to those of the report published a few days ago by the United Nations Environment Programme, the dark picture on the eve of COP29 in Baku is complete.THE'Emissions gap, this was his name, he reminded us how quickly we need to reduce emissions to try to stay within the limits that science (1.5 degrees) and politics (well below 2 degrees) had set themselves at the time of the 2015 Paris Agreement.That is, 42 percent between now and 2030 if we want to stay within one and a half degrees;by 28 percent if we want to stay within 2 degrees.Reduction calculated compared to the emission levels recorded way back in 1990.In fact, at this rate we are heading on a collision course towards an increase in temperature global average by more than 3 degrees, in the worst case scenario.At best we are around 2.5 degrees.This means that the promises, but above all the policies adopted by governments around the world are nowhere near sufficient to achieve the objectives of the international climate treaty.And at this point the question arises spontaneously: Is it time to say goodbye to the Paris Agreement?