US presidential elections 2024, the results that led to Trump's victory

Republicans are gaining support everywhere, even in swing states.Donald Trump's victory is clear.

The United States is holding its breath.Today is the day of the US presidential elections, which will elect the forty-seventh president of the United States.The current vice president will compete Kamala Harris, Democratic candidate she could become the first female president in the country's history, and the former president Donald Trump, which in recent years has made the Republican Party seem more in its own image.Only in one place, however, has a vote already been taken:to Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, six voters have already gone to the polls since midnight on election day, as per tradition.And this tiny community, which has six inhabitants, seems to reflect the great uncertainty that dominated the electoral campaign and will accompany us until the last counted vote which LifeGate will follow live with a live blog starting at 11pm.According to journalists who followed the rapid counting in Dixville Notch, in fact, three electors voted for Kamala Harris and three for Donald Trump.

How the US electoral system works

The US presidential elections are the set of 50 different elections in as many states.However, this is an indirect election:citizens vote for the candidate they prefer, but their vote actually goes to the so-called Big voters who represent the party, the number of which varies in individual states depending on the population.You can vote at the polling stations during election day but there is early voting, early voting by post or at polling stations opened in advance, which this year was chosen by 78 million voters.With the exception of Maine and Nebraska, which assign their delegates using a proportional system, in the other states the winner gets them all, regardless of the gap with the challenger:a system that is called winner takes all.To win you need them 270 on 538.

The Electoral College is the body that actually elects the president.Each elector is nominated by the party he represents, usually the Democratic or Republican party.The representatives of the college elected by the people However, they do not have a mandate constraint, that is, they do not have to vote compulsorily for the presidential candidate corresponding to that of the party they represent.This eventuality, however, happened very few times and never had any effect on the final result.The number of people in the electoral college is the sum of the members of the House of Representatives, senators and 3 electors for the capital Washington, which is not part of any state.Not all states they therefore have the same "weight": in California, the most populous state, there are 54 electors, while sparsely populated states such as North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming have 3, the minimum number required to guarantee representation.For this reason, over the years the US electoral system has allowed presidents to be elected without having a majority of popular preferences:it happened with Donald Trump in 2016 running with Hillary Clinton, and George W.Bush, who had challenged Al Gore in 2000.

Which are the key states in the US presidential elections

There will be 7 swing states, the key states in which these elections will most likely be played.First of all, Michigan and Wisconsin in the so-called “Rust Belt“, the region between the northern Appalachian Mountains and the Great Lakes area on the border with Canada.Here beats the heart of the national heavy industry and of the workers' vote, which for years has represented an uncertain but extremely decisive component at the polls.Then there is Pennsylvania, which can be defined the swing state among the swing states:here the majority of the polls were not unbalanced because the gap between the two candidates is so thin as to make any prediction impossible.This is also why the cities of Pennsylvania were the most frequented by the candidates in the last hours of the election campaign.These three states guaranteed Trump's victory in 2016.Going south, we find the states of the so-called "Sun Belt", i.e. the band that divides the southern United States from coast to coast:Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.The last three have traditionally been republicans, but they may reserve potentially decisive surprises.

US presidential elections, what the polls say about Harris and Trump

The most important US pollsters, from FiveThirtyEight to the newsletter Silver Bulletin of the famous pollster Nate Silver, agree on the fact that great uncertainty will dominate the last hours of the electoral campaign.In the last few hours it seems that Trump has caught up with Harris in Pennsylvania, but the current vice president would have jumped ahead in Iowa.In recent days there has been much discussion about the possible winning combinations for one or the other candidate in the various states, based on the most up-to-date polls available.But in many of these the margin of waste is so minimal that a rollover cannot be ruled out.

06/11/2024 11:43 am – Putin does not congratulate Trump

According to what reported by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin has no intention of congratulating Donald Trump.Relations between the US and Russia, he claims, “are currently at an all-time low”.

06/11/2024 11:38 am – According to AP and CNN, Trump has exceeded the threshold of 270 electors

Both AP and CNN also attribute to Trump the victory of another key state, Wisconsin, which assigns ten electors and in 2020 saw Joe Biden prevail.In this way, Donald Trump exceeds the decisive threshold of 270 electors.

06/11/2024 11:13 am – Zelensky on the election of Donald Trump

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Donald Trump.“I remember the great meeting with President Trump in September, when we discussed in detail the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States, the victory plan and ways to end Russian aggression against Ukraine,” he wrote, hoping expressly that the United States confirms its support for Ukraine.The topic is far from trivial, because in recent months the Republicans have slowed down the approval of new aid.During the election campaign, Trump said he being able to resolve the war “in one day”.In this regard, his vice presidential candidate JD Vance described a peace plan that actually it would also encounter various conditions requested by Russian President Vladimir Putin, such as the maintenance of lands occupied by Russia and the "guarantee of neutrality" by Ukraine.

06/11/2024 10:00 am – Kamala Harris won in Minnesota

According to CNN, Kamala Harris won in Minnesota, a state that awards ten major electors.At the moment, according to the newspaper, Trump is at 266, very close to the 270 threshold.AP assigns him 267, including one from Maine, the only state together with Nebraska that does not adopt the "winner takes all" system.

06/11/2024 08:31 am – Trump speaks to his supporters

Donald Trump spoke to supporters waiting for him in West Palm Beach, Florida. “It's the largest political movement ever in the history of this country,” he said.He reiterates that he has a majority in the Senate and also speaks out for the Chamber, even though the results are not yet official.

06/11/2024 08:26 am – Trump won Pennsylvania

Donald Trump won in Pennsylvania which, with its 19 electors, is the decisive swing state.Both CNN and AP confirm this.

06/11/2024 07:28 am – Trump's victory appears very close

The results are not yet official but, according to the New York Times, Trump has over 95 percent chance of winning.CNN underlines how the only possibility left for Harris is to win over the 19 electors of Pennsylvania, where, however, with 93 percent of the votes counted, Trump is ahead by three percentage points.

06/11/2024 7:21 am – According to AP, Harris won in New Hampshire

According to AP, Harris won in New Hampshire.The state is worth four electors and has gone to the Democrats in seven of the last eight presidential elections.

06/11/2024 6:45 am – The Senate is in Republican hands

The Republicans have officially won the 51st seat in the Senate, and with it the majority of the upper house.

06/11/2024 6:45 am – CNN, Trump also conquers Georgia

According to CNN, Donald Trump also won Georgia, one of the key states that were most in the balance, rising to 246 electors.The victory of the Republican candidate is now very close.

 

06/11/2024 6:40 am – Delays in Nevada, Gen Z has problems with signature in cursive

Delays in counting ballots in Nevada because "many Gen Z voters have difficulty with cursive and this could slow down the counting of votes" said the Nevada Secretary of State:many mail-in ballots would have been voided or sub judice due to problems with young voters' signatures.In 2010, many schools stopped teaching cursive, leaving a generation unfamiliar with the style.

06/11/2024 6:25 am – Trump also ahead in the popular vote, almost done in the Senate

With 62 million votes against 57.4 Donald Trump is close to becoming president of the United States again, this time winning not only in terms of electors but also in popular vote.Almost done, for the Republicans, even in the Senate, where according to CNN projections Trump's party has already won 49 seats of the 51 needed for a majority.The game still seems open in Congress, however, with the Republicans ahead 178-150 (majority 218).

06/11/2024 6:15 am – Trump slightly ahead in the three swing states in the balance

In Pennsylvania, one of the decisive states, with 85 percent of the votes counted, Donald Trump is ahead with 51 percent and about two hundred thousand more net votes.The gap in Wisconsin is much smaller, at 75 percent of the vote.In Michigan, 50 percent of the ballots counted, Trump is at 52 percent with a difference of 170 thousand votes.

06/11/2024 6:05 am – Washington State votes on very ambitious climate law

Washington state voted to maintain an ambitious climate law that limits CO2 emissions and uses money from big polluters to invest in environmental programs.

11/06/2024 6:00 am – Harris at 216 with wins in New Mexico and Hawaii

With her victory in New Mexico and Hawaii, Kamala Harris reaches 216 electors, with Trump stuck at 230.However, the Republican candidate is actually only missing one of the remaining swing states.The situation in Georgia is still "too close", i.e. the two parties are too close to indicate a possible winner.

06/11/2024 5:50 am – Harris wins in Virginia and reaches 200

Kamala Harris prevails in Virginia, which assigns 13 votes of the electors, and reaches 200, rekindling a small flame of hope in the Democrats, who also gain points in Congress, returning to compete to obtain the majority in at least one of the two chambers .

06/11/2024 5:40 am – Julie Johnson is the first LGBT member elected to Congress in a Southern state

According to NBC News projections, Congresswoman Julie Johnson has won the race to represent Texas' 32nd congressional district, becoming the first openly LGBTQ person from the South elected to Congress. Johnson, a Democrat, defeated Republican Darrell Day.“Together, we broke barriers and proved that representation matters,” Johnson wrote on Instagram.“This moment is a testament to the power of collective action.It's about the countless people who have fought for equality and inclusion, and the belief that our government should reflect the will of its people.To everyone who knocked on doors, made phone calls, donated, shared our message and believed in this campaign, your efforts were not in vain.This victory belongs to you."

 

06/11/2024 5:30 am – North Carolina to Trump, which rises to 230 electors

Donald Trump's victory in North Carolina is now official, giving the Republican candidate another 16 electors:now Trump rises to 230 votes, -40 from the threshold necessary for final victory.Harris consoles herself with Oregon, which brings her to 187, but the road for the Democrat is increasingly uphill.

06/11/2024 5:20 am – Republicans ahead in the House and Senate

At the moment the victory of the Republicans appears to be total:Donald Trump also currently has an advantage in the popular vote, which determines the composition of the House and Senate.For the first time since 2004, the two chambers could be the prerogative of the same Republican majority (currently 48 seats against 39 in the Senate and 163-108 in the House), giving Trump unprecedented strength.Considering that the Supreme Court also has a Republican majority, the only democratic counter-power remains New York and California, very influential states and cities.

06/11/2024 5:10 am – Trump takes Idaho, Harris takes California

Donald Trump prevails in Idaho, which assigns 4 electors, and Kamala Harris in California, which brings 54.Everything as expected on the eve and results that do not shift the inertia of the counting underway:at this point Harris, despite rising at 179 seats against 214, it must establish itself in the three main swing states, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, to hope to make it.But it is currently lagging behind in all three states, though not by much.

06/11/2024 5:35 am – Trump ahead in the main swing states

With victory now probable in Iowa, Trump has risen to 210 electors out of the 270 needed to be proclaimed president of the United States.Kamala Harris, who seems to have won in Illinois, rises to 113.Still far away, especially considering that in almost all the large key states, albeit by a small margin, Trump seems to be ahead.

06/11/2024 5:05 am – Trump is also ahead in Pennsylvania

Another possible turning point on election night in favor of Donald Trump:the American tycoon would have a strong advantage in Pennsylvania, one of the key states in the race for the White House.The New York Times' needle now tips towards the Republican candidate with 84 percent of the chances.

06/11/2024 4:25 am – 269 all scenario also possible

At the current state of the electoral counting in the various states, 3 different cases can be foreseen in which Donald Trump and Kamala Harris could end up tied, with 269 ​​electors each.In that case, the person who obtained a clear victory in the greatest number of states would be elected president.

06/11/2024 4:15 am – Right to abortion:defeat in Florida, victory in New York

A victory and a 'democratic' defeat on the right to abortion, on election night.In Florida, the referendum which proposed to expand the right to terminate a pregnancy, which is currently only possible within the first 6 weeks, did not reach a quorum:a victory for the Republicans led in the East Coast state by Ron De Santis.On the contrary, the voters of New York they approved a Equal Rights Amendment that provides protection for abortion and LGBTQ rights in the State Constitution.

06/11/2024 4:00 am – Nyt, downhill race for Trump

The US presidential race is starting to tilt towards Donald Trump, especially after the tycoon's victory in North Carolina, one of the swing states, and in Georgia.Trump victory also in Utah and Montana.If the results in these two states are consolidated, explains the New York Times, Kamala Harris will probably have to conquer Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to reverse the situation, which currently sees her with 99 electors against 194:a possibility that is standing, but grasped complicated.New York itself currently gives Trump a 70 percent chance.

06/11/2024 3:55 am – Bomb alerts in 4 states, again from Russian email domains

There are 4 states in which voting operations were marred by threats and bomb scares at polling stations:Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia.As confirmed by the FBI, which intervened in all four states, in all cases the threats came from Russian email domains and were considered not credible.

06/11/2024 3:40 am – North Carolina towards Trump

Donald Trump should have won North Carolina, the first of the seven swing states, the states considered decisive for the race for the White House, which awards 16 electoral votes.

11/06/2024 3:30 am – New York Times:Trump's chances at 69 percent

On the map, the states currently dominated by Kamala Harris are in blue, those of Donald Trump are in red.According to the New York Times, Trump currently has a 69 percent chance of victory.

06/11/2024 3:25 am – Polls closed in several key states, including Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin

The polls closed at 9pm in several states, including some key territories such as Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.There is still little certainty about the data.Among the states in which elections are closed there are also Coloroado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North and South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming.

06/11/2024 3:15 am – CNN projections:Trump wins in Wyoming and South Dakota

According to CNN projections, Donald Trump would have won Wyoming and South Dakota, for a total of 6 electors.In the previous elections the two states were also won by the former president.

06/11/2024 2:30 am – Vote counting in Georgia is slow also due to a series of bomb scares

In 32 of 177 polling stations in Fulton County, authorities received bomb threats, which later turned out to be false.The series of alerts has lengthened the voting time and, consequently, the time to be allocated to counting the results.According to the FBI, the alerts sent via email could be traced back to Russian accounts.

06/11/2024 2:00 am – Trump ahead in Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma

Again, no surprises:the successful projections for Trump in the Republican states raise the number of electors for the former president to 105.

06/11/2024 2:00 am – Harris ahead in Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Washington DC

These are traditionally Democratic states, which bring Harris's electors to 31.

11/06/2024 1:45 am – Trump is ahead among independent voters in Georgia, exit polls say

According to post-voting statements, Trump would have an 11-point lead over independent voters, who could play a decisive role in attributing one of the main swing states to one of the two candidates.Georgia is traditionally a Republican state, but in 2020 Biden won with 49.47 percent of the vote and a 9-point lead among independent voters.The data suggested by the exit polls seems to go in the opposite direction.

06/11/2024 1:30 am – Donald Trump ahead in West Virginia

Also in this case it is a confirmation for the Republicans, since the state remained in the hands of the Grand Old Party (Gop) in the previous 6 US presidential elections.West Virginia elects 4 electors.

06/11/2024 1 am – Donald Trump ahead in Kentucky and Indiana, Harris in Vermont

The first states "called" are Kentucky, Indiana and Vermont.Former President Trump will win in the first two, projections say, while Harris is ahead in Vermont.Kentucky elects 8 electors, Indiana 11 and Vermont 3.

06/11/2024 00:29 – The first polling stations closed in Indiana and Kentucky

It will still take about an hour for the polls to completely close in the two traditionally republican states.At that point the first projections should be communicated.

06/11/2024 00:20 – According to exit polls, democracy matters more than the economy

According to exit polls released by NBC, 35 percent of US citizens believe it is democracy the most important issue in these elections, followed by the economy (30 percent).A surprise, given that many observers and polls leading up to it considered the state of the economy to be the theme around which these elections should have been played out.

06/11/2024 00:00 – Even for Barack Obama it could take days to know the result of the elections

The election boards of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia said that in some precincts the polls will close later due to technical problems with the machines that count the ballots.In Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 30,000 mail-in ballots will be counted by hand.Meanwhile, Barack Obama has also expressed his opinion on the possibility that the time needed to understand the winner will be long, as has already happened in the past.

05/11/2024 11:35 pm – For Donald Trump there would be "huge electoral districts" in Pennsylvania

He wrote it on Truth, the social network he founded, denouncing fraud in Philadelphia, the largest city in the most important state of these elections according to many observers.On CNN, the Philadelphia Police Department told CNN it was not aware of the fraud reported by the former president, nor of any voting problems that required law enforcement intervention.

05/11/2024 11:20 pm – CNN exit polls:three-quarters of voters reject Biden's work

About three-quarters of voters have a negative view about how things are going in the United States today.While waiting for the polls to close, CNN exit polls arrived from the United States which, unlike the Italian ones, do not provide information on the electorate's voting indications.However, they are useful for understanding more general trends, capable of communicating what direction the vote has taken regarding certain issues.Above all, the one relating to vote of minorities but not only.For example, if the words of the voters were to show a good result by Kamala Harris among the white electorate, it would be excellent news for the vice president.Likewise, if Trump were to prove popular among minorities, Latinos and African Americans above all, the balance could begin to tip in his favor.

05/11/2024 10.46 pm – Election night begins:when polls close in the 50 states

The election results will arrive from polling stations spread across the 50 American states in a staggered manner throughout the night.The first to arrive should be, around midnight Italian, those of Indiana and some areas of Kentucky. Around one it should be the turn of South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia and Georgia.The latter is one of the swing states, so the projections may provide us with an initial but important piece of information on where the balance will tip between Harris and Trump in the US presidential elections.

By 2am Italian time Polls will close in many states:Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee and West Virginia – where Trump will most likely win.Seats also closed in some Democratic strongholds such as Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Washington DC.

Two swing states such as North Carolina and Pennsylvania will also begin counting, which could take a long time.This especially concerns Pennsylvania, the swing state among swing states:this is where Harris and Trump will go all out to become president.

Between 3 and 4 Italian time instead, results should arrive from all other states, including the key states of the so-called “Blue Wall” – the stronghold of the Democrats –  Michigan and Wisconsin.Even Arizona and Nevada, traditionally Republicans but for years now considered in the balance, will close their polls at this time.

The closing of the polls and the arrival of the screenings will not automatically mean a clear outcome:knowing the winner could take several hours at best, days at worst.A scenario that will inevitably raise the tone of competition and could make the vote much more open to disputes over the legitimacy of the electoral process.