Trump and cold relations with Putin and the Near East

Lukewarm statements came from Moscow after Trump's victory.The future of the invasion of Ukraine remains uncertain.

On the eve of the US elections, the Russia she had sewn her mouth shut.Or at least he tried.Even if the state television channels had shown a certain predilection for the Republican candidate Donald Trump, for the entire period preceding the vote, no convincing statements on Moscow's preferences between the two candidates had been leaked from the Russian palaces of power. Kamala Harris or Trump?If at the end of summer Kommersant, the well-known Russian political and economic newspaper, had the headline “neither Harris nor Trump are among us”, in September the Russian president Vladimir Putin, speaking at the Economic Forum in Vladivostok, had indulged in an ironic endorsement of the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris which had raised more doubts than certainties:“Our favorite, so to speak, was incumbent President Joe Biden.But he withdrew from the race, and urged all his supporters to back Ms. Harris.So, we will do the same, we will support it,” Putin said, visibly amused.

Putin doesn't say anything about Trump

Now that the die has been cast, with Trump celebrating his second non-consecutive term in the White House, the Kremlin seems intent on still playing with its cards face down. This can be seen from the first tepid statements from the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.However, they were denied a few hours later.“I am not aware that the Russian president plans to congratulate Trump.Let's remember that this is a hostile country”, Peskov said.

Then Putin did it, he congratulated:“I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Trump on his election as President of the United States.I have already said that we will work with any head of state that the American people trust."According to the Russian news agency Tass, Putin is "ready to discuss" with Trump.

Before these words, the Russian president and senior representatives of the authorities they were congratulated with Trump through unofficial channels.Congratulations were also sent "through acquaintances" by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the Vice-President of the Security Council Dmitrji Medvedev and the presidents of the houses of parliament Valentina Matvienko and Vyacheslav Volodin.Rumors that lead one to think that the Kremlin wants to "maintain relations" with Washington, given that Moscow "has some hopes" towards Trump, as reported by the senior official cited by Verstka.And these hopes, the newspaper reports, are linked above all to the idea that the White House can reduce aid to Ukraine. 

Trump's victory?Bad news for Ukraine

One of the first to comment on the outcome of the vote was the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, according to which Trump's victory is probably bad news for Kiev:“Trump has a useful quality for us:being a businessman to the core, he mortally hates spending money on various parasites and foolish allies and on useless charity projects,” he wrote on Telegram, adding that the Ukrainian authorities fall into the category of people on whom Trump will probably not want to spend too much money.

Through one Note official, the Russian Foreign Ministry has made it known that the authorities "have no illusions regarding the new American president", given that "the political elite in power in the United States, regardless of party affiliation, maintains a anti-Russian position and one policy of 'containment of Moscow'.Russia will work with the new Administration by firmly defending Russian national interests, focusing on achieving all objectives of the special military operation."

And it is precisely the military operation in Ukraine one of the hottest issues now appearing on the horizon after Trump's election campaign promised Of end the conflict “in 24 hours”. 

How will the Ukrainian invasion of Russia end?

“Trump's pacifist aspirations are important statements.But sometimes, after the victory, the statements take on a different tone – commented the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov –.We have said several times that the United States is capable of helping to resolve the conflict.Of course, it cannot be done overnight, but since the United States is the country that constantly fuels this conflict and participates directly in it, yes, Washington can change the trajectory of its foreign policy.But we will only see it after January."

Speaking on condition of anonymity, some senior Russian officials have made it known that Trump's return to the White House could provide a boost to Russia in its war against Ukraine, weakening the European Union and allowing a partial resumption of relations between Washington and Moscow.

“Until Trump takes office we will continue to advance in Ukraine,” a Russian government official said.It would be useful to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by January, and then we will decide what to do with Kherson (controlled by Kiev and partially occupied by Russia, ed.)”.

If Russian forces continue to advance into Ukraine, it would be logical and easy for the new US administration to propose gods negotiations to stop the fighting, another official said, convinced that Kiev would then also be more willing to negotiate.

“As soon as Trump takes office, we can agree to start consultations.It will be convenient for him to negotiate.At the moment, there is no one who can come to Moscow for some negotiations, no one to talk to,” another Russian official added.

The reactions of Kiev and Belarus

The Ukrainian president Volodomyr Zelensky he tried to put on a brave face.Ha called Trump's victory "impressive" and hoped that the result would help Ukraine achieve "a just peace”.

“Congratulations to Donald Trump on his stunning election victory,” Zelensky wrote on X.The Ukrainian president then made it known that he had had an "excellent" telephone exchange with Trump.“We agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance our cooperation.Strong and unwavering US leadership is essential for our world and for a just peace,” Zelensky said.

The other reactions coming from Kiev were contained.The parliamentarian Oleksiy Goncharenko he said that Trump's victory represents "a huge challenge and great hopes."

“I'm very skeptical that the war will end quickly, in 24 hours, as Trump promised,” he said Tymofiy Mylovanov, former Ukrainian Economy Minister and now president of the Kyiv School of Economics.“We certainly won't be bored.”

From the Belarusian, Moscow's biggest ally that borders Ukraine, the president Alexander Lukashenko he spoke of the outcome of the vote as “the embodiment of a personal heroic deed” accomplished “in the name of America and its citizens.I wish you strong health and wise political decisions that will make America great again." he said Lukashenko.

Reactions from the Caucasus and Central Asia

Words of congratulations also came from the president of the Georgia Salome Zourabichvili, which ended up in the news in recent days for not having recognized theoutcome of the local parliamentary elections which confirmed the victory of the ruling Georgian Dream party:“Now more than ever we need a strong America – our strategic partner and friend for 33 years – to support Georgia's Euro-Atlantic integration, strengthen regional security and stability, and protect our freedom and independence.”

Ilham Aliyev, the president ofAzerbaijan which next week in Baku will host the climate summit of the United Nations, told Trump:“Your assured victory is a clear reflection of the great support and trust that the friendly American people place in you personally and in the policy you pursue.”

An invitation to collaboration was also launched by Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan:“I look forward to working with her to strengthen the strategic bilateral relationship between Armenia and the US, based on our common values, priorities and interests.”

Beyond the good wishes, perhaps the word that best summarizes this new chapter in history is "uncertainty", suggests the analyst Oleg Itskhoki, professor of economics at the University of California, Los Angeles.“We don't know Trump's foreign policy plans.He raised a slogan about ending the war in Ukraine in a few hours but the details of his plan are not known.A period of great uncertainty begins regarding the war in Ukraine and relations with Russia.Maybe we will only begin to understand it over the next three or six months."