2024 will be the hottest year ever.And the Mediterranean is too hot:“High risk of extreme events”

October 2024 is the 15th month in a row with temperatures above average and 2024, say Copernicus experts, is now certain to be the hottest year in history.Scientists are throwing yet another challenge to climate change policy

ROME - It is now practically certain that 2024 will be the hottest year on record.And characterized by a constant average of 1.5 degrees higher compared to pre-industrial levels.A record, in short, which between now and the end of the year could even become 1.55 degrees.This is what the experts say Copernicus, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess said this “marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should act as a catalyst to raise ambition for the next Climate Change Conference, COP29."In fact, the increase in the average global temperature above 1.5 degrees was the 'limit' set by the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which aimed to limit global warming well below 2°C and to continue efforts to keep it at least below 1.5°C.In fact, the risk of catastrophic events caused by climate change (droughts, heat waves or torrential rains) would exist if average global temperatures were to be above 1.5°C for 20-30 years.But the world, according to experts, is on track to face this scenario.
Copernicus points out that precipitation were above average in October Spain (with the record flood that hit Valencia), but also in France, In the northern Italy and in Norway.Scientists agree that, across most of the planet, extreme precipitation is becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change.And they note that, if current policies are maintained, the planet is heading for “catastrophic” warming of 3.1°C this century, according to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).

THE DATA FOR 2024

The average global temperature anomaly for the first 10 months of 2024 (from January to October) is 0.71°C above the average between 1991 and 2020, the highest ever recorded for this period and 0.16°C warmer than the same period in 2023.It is therefore now practically certain that 2024 will be the hottest year on record.The average temperature anomaly for the remainder of 2024 would have to drop to near zero for 2024 not to be the warmest year.

There global average temperature of the last 12 months (November 2023-October 2024) was 0.74°C above the average between 1991 and 2020 and 1.62°C above the pre-industrial average between 1850 and 1900.

ONLY OCTOBER 2023 WARMER THAN OCTOBER 2024:15.25 DEGREES AVERAGE

October 2024 was the second warmest globally, after October 2023, with an average surface air temperature of 15.25°C, 0.80°C above the 1991-2020 average for October. October 2024 was 1.65°C above pre-industrial level and it was the 15th month in a 16-month period in which the global average surface air temperature exceeded pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C.

THE ALARM FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN

Scientists agree on the alarming situation, but unfortunately "public opinions are distracted":for Anbi (the national association of land reclamation consortia). Current climatic conditions in the Mediterranean Sea are ideal for extremely violent meteorological phenomena across Europe, but mainly on countries in the South of the continent, such as Italy.And it's about time we worried about this.The temperatures recorded are 23 degrees in the Ionian and lower Adriatic and even 25 degrees along the coasts of Northern Africa and the Middle East.

Even the air temperature, at a global level, has returned to recording growing anomalies, and today comes the news that 2024 will be the hottest year in history.“Let's repeat it again:waiting for planetary policies for mitigation We urgently need adaptation policies capable of containing the risks for the population.What happened in Spain can also be repeated here and we need to be aware of it", says Francesco Vincenzi, President of the National Association of Consortia for the Management and Protection of Land and Irrigation Waters (Anbi).
“From politics, at every level, we ask for awareness that investing in hydrogeological prevention is an unavoidable condition for development.Together with funding for infrastructure capable of responding to the climate situation, which is consolidating, We need a civil prevention campaign because, faced with the extremes of atmospheric events, it is necessary for everyone to assume new awareness even in daily life", adds Massimo Gargano, General Director of Anbi.

Anbi then reviews the situation in Italy, region by region.As regards the hydro-climatic situation of our country, after the exceptional rainfall contributions of the month of October, the water reserves of Northern Italy and partially of Central Italy recorded a further growth in the volumes stored in the basins, in the flow rates of water and underlying groundwater;in the South, however, the extreme localization and concentration of even very violent rainfall did not allow the very long period of water scarcity to be counteracted.The example comes from Sicily where in October, an average of 70 millimeters of water fell on the province of Messina with cumulative amounts ranging from 28 mm in Montalbano Elicona to mm.217 of Antillo up to 316.2 mm in 5 days on Fiumedinisi.
In the southern regions, autumn rains have so far not been sufficient to fill the enormous water deficit created in a year of drought.In Puglia, in the Capitanata basins, 89% of water is missing and only a volume of 36.76 million cubic meters remains (last year, Tavoliere agriculture had three times as much water).In Basilicata, the water present in the tanks is only 15% of that which can be filled;following a further reduction of over 5 million cubic metres, the gap with 2023 has risen to almost million.mc.150.
In Calabria the levels of the Coscile river are increasing, while those of the Lao are decreasing;the flows of the Ancinale have almost disappeared after the flows of this river had been revitalized in recent weeks.thanks to the abundant rainfall, which had affected the Catanzaro area.If in Campania the flows of the rivers (Sele, Volturno, Garigliano) are increasing, in Sardinia the reservoirs are overall at 39.76% full:Lake Maccheronis (North-Eastern Sardinia) holds 570,000 cubic meters out of over 22 million that can be invaded (2.48%), while the basins of Alto Cixerri (South-Western Sardinia) contain only 6.49% of the water that can be invaded (mln.mc.1.42 out of mln.18.80 m).
(SAY) Rome, 7 Nov.– In Lazio, the level of Lake Bracciano, thanks to the meteoric contributions of the second half of October, rises by 6 centimeters, while the small Nemi basin shows endemic difficulties in retaining the flooded water in rainy periods, lowering by 2 centimeters after only a few days of sun and good weather.The flows of the rivers begin to reduce again with the Tiber, which drops below the typical flows of the period, as do the Aniene and the Velino.In Umbria the flow "trend" in the Chiascio, Topino and Paglia rivers is negative.The deficient hydrometric height of Lake Trasimeno is unchanged, despite the October rainfall (mm.180 approximately), well above the averages of more recent years.
In the Marche, the heights of the Potenza, Esino, Tronto, Nera and Sentino rivers return to their lowest levels in the five-year period.In Tuscany, all rivers are recording decreasing flows and lower than the monthly averages.Also in Liguria, a clear reduction in flows in the river basins, which in recent weeks had caused damage and caused concern;the Magra river returns below average.
There is also a clear reduction in the flows of the Apennine rivers of Emilia-Romagna, where only the Secchia continues to record flows higher than normal (+16%).The Piacenza basins, having fulfilled the fundamental function of flood mitigation in recent days, now retain over 10 million cubic meters of water, i.e. a quantity much higher than the typical one for the period (almost never higher than million.mc.3).
With the flow of the flood, the flows of the Po river, although remaining above average, are however less threatening:in Pontelagoscuro, at the gates of the delta, there was approximately +68% compared to usual, while upstream, in the Alessandria area affected by storms in recent weeks, the flow of the Great River was reduced by 76% in 7 days, however remaining at 31% % higher than the average for the period.
(SAY) Rome, 7 Nov.– In Piedmont, the average flow in the Tanaro river, which last week was 1404 cubic meters per second, dropped to 172 m3/s (-32% on the average);the Stura di Lanzo, with a flow reduction of almost 100 cubic meters per second, now records a flow equal to 80% of the monthly average.In the region the month of October was hot (+1.6°) and very humid with a rainfall surplus of 153%, but which even reached +200% in the Cervo, Bormida, Orba, Pellice, Stura di Lanzo, Orco basins , Residual Po-confluence Dora Baltea (source:ARPA Piedmont).
In Northern Italy, the respite from the bad weather has reduced the huge flows in the waterways and allowed the "great lakes" to stabilize at more reassuring levels:among the large lakes, the level of the Maggiore drops by half a meter in 7 days, still remaining at a filling volume of more than 100%;Lake Como is at 53.5%, that of Garda at 78.6% and Sebino at 79.3%.
In Valle d'Aosta the flows of the Dora Baltea and the Lys torrent are reduced.In Lombardy, the total water reserves reached 2 billion and 60 million cubic meters, an amount approximately 39% higher than typical for the period.
A generalized drop in hydrometric levels was also recorded in Veneto:in some cases the current flow rates are lower than the average ones for the period (Muson dei Sassi -31%, Bacchiglione -19.4%).