Save the seas to save ourselves, Guterres' warning

Global mean sea level is rising at unprecedented rates over the past 3,000 years due to global warming.Urgent, global action is needed.

• António Guterres opened the works of the Pacific Islands Forum.
• For the occasion, the UN published a new report on rising sea levels.
• The global average of sea rise has reached 9.4 cm per year:a record.

The UN Secretary General, António Guterres, launched a heartfelt SOS on rising seas from the islands of Samoa and Tonga, in Oceania, where the Pacific islands forum, an event organized to give voice to the Pacific countries at an international level.For the occasion, Guterres presented the report “Surging seas in a warming world”, which highlights the seriousness of the situation:according to NASA data, the global average sea rise has reached 9.4 cm, with Apia, Samoa, already recording a 31cm increase since 1990.

Guterres stressed that rising seas are a crisis entirely caused by man and which, without immediate interventions, will reach unimaginable dimensions.He also urged G20 countries to lead the global response, with a particular focus on the need to rapidly eliminate the fossil fuels and to financially support vulnerable countries.Ahead of COP29, which will be held in Baku, the Secretary-General called for a significant increase in funding and an ambitious new climate finance target.

The sea is rising at unprecedented rates

In 2021, the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded – with “high certainty” – that global mean sea levels are rising at unprecedented rates over the last 3,000 years due to human-induced global warming.From 1901 to 1971, the average rate of sea level rise was 0.13 centimeters per year, but increased to 0.37 centimeters per year between 2006 and 2018.This trend has accelerated in the last ten years, doubling compared to the first decade of satellite observations.

There melting of glaciers and the polar ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica is the main cause of this rise, together with the thermal expansion of ocean water due to the absorption of excess heat accumulated by the Earth system.Coastal communities and low-lying island nations are already feeling the effects of this phenomenon, and the pace of change looks set to accelerate further.The political decisions and climate actions of world leaders in the coming years will determine how devastating these impacts become and how quickly they worsen.

Future projections of sea level rise

The magnitude, timing and rate of sea level rise this century and subsequent millennia will depend on the global temperature at which global warming stabilizes, as well as greenhouse gas emissions.Even after reaching net zero emissions, sea levels will continue to rise due to warming oceans and melting ice sheets, which are already underway.According to the IPCC, historical emissions up to 2016 could lead to a sea ​​level rise between 0.7 and 1.1 meters by 2300.

Projections for 2100 vary greatly depending on emissions scenarios, with a possible increase of between 38 cm and 77 cm compared to 1995-2014 levels.But the most pessimistic scenarios indicate that the rise could be much higher, up to 2.3 metres, due to accelerated ice loss in Antarctica and Greenland.In particular, recent research suggests that global warming of 2 degrees Celsius could lead to the near-total loss of Greenland and much of West Antarctica, resulting in sea levels rising by 12-20 meters in the millennia to come.3 degrees warming could accelerate this loss within the next few centuries, causing widespread damage to coastal communities around the world.

Cop 29, Guterres urges urgent action

Predicting future sea level rise and quantifying associated impacts remains a complex challenge, influenced by many geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties.However, one thing is certain:the climate crisis and rising sea levels they are no longer distant threats, especially for Pacific Island States.Deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions are needed to keep global warming to 1.5-2°C.At the same time, it is essential to enhance coastal adaptation and invest in resilience to minimize the growing impacts and risks associated with sea level rise.International agreements, like the next Cop 29, represent a crucial opportunity for countries to take immediate measures to reduce emissions and build the resilience needed to face future challenges.