Weather forecasting

Weather forecasts have gotten quite good over the years, but their temperatures aren’t always spot on – and the result when they underplay extremes can be lethal. Even a 1-degree difference in a forecast’s accuracy can be the difference between life and death, our research shows. As economists, we have studied how people use forecasts to manage weather risks. In a new working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, we looked at how human survival depends on the accuracy of temperature forecasts, particularly during heat waves like large parts of the U.S. have been experiencing in recent days. We found that when the forecasts underplayed the risk, even small forecast errors led to more deaths. Our results also show that improving forecasts pays off. They suggest that making forecasts 50% more accurate would save 2,200 lives per year across the country and would have a net value that’s nearly twice the annual budget of the National Weather Ser...

Flash droughts develop fast, and when they hit at the wrong time, they can devastate a region’s agriculture. They’re also becoming increasingly common as the planet warms. In a new study published May 25, 2023, we found that the risk of flash droughts, which can develop in the span of a few weeks, is on pace to rise in every major agriculture region around the world in the coming decades. In North America and Europe, cropland that had a 32% annual chance of a flash drought a few years ago could have as much as a 53% annual chance of a flash drought by the final decades of this century. The result would put food production, energy and water supplies under increasing pressure. The cost of damage will also rise. A flash drought in the Dakotas and Montana in 2017 caused US$2.6 billion in agricultural damage in the U.S. alone. Stunted corn in Nebraska struggles to grow during the 2012 flash drought that covered much of the cent...

Meteorologists began warning about severe weather with the potential for tornadoes several days before storms tore across the Southeast and the Central U.S. in late March 2023. At one point, more than 28 million people were under a tornado watch. But pinpointing exactly where a tornado will touch down – like the tornadoes that hit Rolling Fork, Mississippi, on March 24, and towns in Arkansas, Illinois and multiple other states on March 31 – still relies heavily on seeing the storms developing on radar. Chris Nowotarski, an atmospheric scientist, explains why, and how forecast technology is improving. Why are tornadoes still so difficult to forecast? Meteorologists have gotten a lot better at forecasting the conditions that make tornadoes more likely. But predicting exactly which thunderstorms will produce a tornado and when is harder, and that’s where a lot of severe weather research is focused today. Often, you’ll have a line of thunderstorms in an envi...

With chatbots like ChatGPT making a splash, machine learning is playing an increasingly prominent role in our lives. For many of us, it’s been a mixed bag. We rejoice when our Spotify For You playlist finds us a new jam, but groan as we scroll through a slew of targeted ads on our Instagram feeds. Machine learning is also changing many fields that may seem surprising. One example is my discipline, ornithology – the study of birds. It isn’t just solving some of the biggest challenges associated with studying bird migration; more broadly, machine learning is expanding the ways in which people engage with birds. As spring migration picks up, here’s a look at how machine learning is influencing ways to research birds and, ultimately, to protect them. The challenge of conserving migratory birds Most birds in the Western Hemisphere migrate twice a year, flying over entire continents between their breeding and nonbreeding grounds. While these journeys are awe-i...

Many people are familiar with flash floods – torrents that develop quickly after heavy rainfall. But there’s also such a thing as a flash drought, and these sudden, extreme dry spells are becoming a big concern for farmers and water utilities. Flash droughts start and intensify quickly, over periods of weeks to months, compared to years or decades for conventional droughts. Still, they can cause substantial economic damage, since communities have less time to prepare for the impacts of a rapidly evolving drought. In 2017, a flash drought in Montana and the Dakotas damaged crops and grasses that served as forage for cattle, causing US$2.6 billion in agricultural losses. Flash droughts also can increase wildfire risks, cause public water supply shortages and reduce stream flow, which harms fish and other aquatic life. A developing flash drought in the central U.S. covered 64% of corn territory and 57% of soybean territory in la...