Hurricane forecasting

The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, and forecasters are keeping a close eye on rising ocean temperatures, and not just in the Atlantic. Globally, warm sea surface temperatures that can fuel hurricanes have been off the charts in the spring of 2023, but what really matters for Atlantic hurricanes are the ocean temperatures in two locations: the North Atlantic basin, where hurricanes are born and intensify, and the eastern-central tropical Pacific Ocean, where El Niño forms. This year, the two are in conflict – and likely to exert counteracting influences on the crucial conditions that can make or break an Atlantic hurricane season. The result could be good news for the Caribbean and Atlantic coasts: a near-average hurricane season. But forecasters are warning that that hurricane forecast hinges on El Niño panning out. Ingredients of a hurricane In general, hurricanes are more likely to form and intensify when a tropical low-pressure system encounter...

Hurricane Ian strengthened into a major hurricane on Tuesday as it headed for Florida and was on track to bring dangerous storm surge to the coast and flooding rainfall to large parts of the state. Several areas were under evacuation orders. After a slow start to the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, Ian formed in ideal conditions, with minimal vertical wind shear, which can tear apart a storm, and warm ocean surface waters providing fuel. Forecasters expect Ian to remain a major hurricane – meaning Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with winds over 110 mph – as it heads for landfall in Florida, expected Wednesday. But the scale doesn’t take water risk into account, and flooding and storm surge are both major risks from Ian. Large parts of the state could see 15 inches or more of rain from Hurricane Ian. National Hurricane Center As a meteorologist livin...