Extreme weather

Many Americans think of power outages as infrequent inconveniences, but that’s quickly changing. Nationwide, major power outages have increased tenfold since 1980, largely because of an aging electrical grid and damage sustained from severe storms as the planet warms. At the same time, electricity demand is rising as the population grows and an increasing number of people use electricity to cool and heat their homes, cook their meals and power their cars. A growing number of Americans also rely on electricity-powered medical equipment, such as oxygen concentrators to help with breathing, lifts for movement and infusion pumps to deliver medications and fluids to their bodies. For older adults and others with health conditions, a loss of power may be more than an inconvenience. It can be life-threatening. We study environmental health, including the effects of extreme heat and storms on people. In a new study, we analyzed data from New York City and the surrounding area to...

To understand how important weather and climate risks are to the economy, watch investors. New research shows that two long-range seasonal weather forecasts in particular can move the stock market in interesting ways. We often think about forecasts as telling us what the weather will bring in coming days, but the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also predicts weather conditions several months out. These seasonal climate outlooks tell us whether the hurricane season is likely to be active, whether the winter is likely to be snowy or cold, and whether an El Niño or La Niña climate pattern is likely to emerge with the potential to influence weather across the U.S. I study the impacts of weather on economic activity as an economist. In a new paper, an atmospheric scientist at NOAA and I analyzed the influence of long-range forecasts by looking at the changing prices of stock options over 10 years and thousands of companies. We found that investors are payin...

Scenes from the Houston area looked like the aftermath of a hurricane in early May 2024 after a series of powerful storms flooded highways and neighborhoods and sent rivers over their banks north of the city. Hundreds of people had to be rescued from homes, rooftops and cars during storms, according to The Associated Press. Huntsville registered nearly 20 inches of rain from April 29 to May 4. More storm systems over the following weeks blew out windows in Houston high rises and caused more flash flooding on urban streets and already saturated ground in the region. Floods are complex events, and they are about more than just heavy rain. Each community has its own unique geography and climate that can exacerbate flooding. On top of those risks, extreme downpours are becoming more common as global temperatures rise. I work with a center at the University of Michigan that helps communities turn climate knowledge into projects that can reduce the harm of future climate disasters. F...

Dozens of tornadoes hit the central U.S. April 26-28, 2024, tearing through suburbs and small towns and damaging hundreds of homes from Oklahoma to Nebraska and Iowa. Spring is tornado season in the U.S., but the tornadoes in Nebraska and Iowa were quite a bit farther north and east of what would be typical for tornadoes in late April, when tornado activity is more common in Oklahoma and Texas. The outbreak did fit another pattern for severe weather events, however, that occur as the atmosphere transitions out of El Niño. And this is exactly what was happening in late April. I study tornadoes and the conditions under which they form. Here’s how these storm systems develop and what El Niño has to do with it. Preliminary reports of tornadoes and hail during severe storms on April 26, 2024, collected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center. NOAA...

Climate change is threatening America’s water infrastructure as intensifying storms deluge communities and droughts dry up freshwater supplies in regions that aren’t prepared. Severe storms that swept through the South in April 2024 illustrated some of the risks: In New Orleans, rain fell much faster as the city’s pumps could remove it. A water line broke during the storm near Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Other communities faced power outages and advisories to boil water for safety before using it. We study infrastructure resilience and sustainability and see a crisis growing, particularly in the U.S. Southeast, where aging water supply systems and stormwater infrastructure are leaving more communities at risk as weather becomes more extreme. Neighborhoods across the New Orleans area flooded on April 10 as the region’s pumps couldn’t keep up with the rainfall. Credit: Reed Timmer. To find the best solutions and b...