Natural disasters

Major wildfires on the Hawaiian island of Maui have killed dozens of people and caused heavy damage, particularly in the historic town of Lahaina, as of Aug. 10, 2023. The state has asked all visitors to leave Maui and those planning to travel there to reschedule their trips – a harsh blow to a destination whose economy relies heavily on tourism. University of South Carolina research professor Rich Harrill, an expert on hospitality and tourism, explains how such events affect places like Maui in the short and long terms. How tourism-dependent is Hawaii compared to other popular destinations? Compared to other destinations, Hawaii is very reliant on tourism – it comprises about 25% of the state’s economy. According to the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, visitor spending was projected to be US$20.8 billion in 2023 and $23.4 billion in 2026. Tourism plays an even greater role on Maui. Maui County has the state’s highest re...

Weather forecasts have gotten quite good over the years, but their temperatures aren’t always spot on – and the result when they underplay extremes can be lethal. Even a 1-degree difference in a forecast’s accuracy can be the difference between life and death, our research shows. As economists, we have studied how people use forecasts to manage weather risks. In a new working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, we looked at how human survival depends on the accuracy of temperature forecasts, particularly during heat waves like large parts of the U.S. have been experiencing in recent days. We found that when the forecasts underplayed the risk, even small forecast errors led to more deaths. Our results also show that improving forecasts pays off. They suggest that making forecasts 50% more accurate would save 2,200 lives per year across the country and would have a net value that’s nearly twice the annual budget of the National Weather Ser...

Heavy rainfall generated widespread flooding. in the Upper Midwest in late June 2024, putting at least one aging dam at risk. In southern Minnesota, the Blue Earth River cut a path around the Rapidan Dam in Rapidan Township, about 15 miles south of Mankato, on June 24, putting the structure at imminent risk of failing. Officials warned local residents that if the dam burst, the river could rise by 2 feet, but said that evacuations were not needed. This event comes a year after flooding in Vermont collapsed at least one dam and threatened others. Hiba Baroud, associate professor and associate chair in the department of civil and environmental engineering at Vanderbilt University, explains how flooding stresses dams in a changing climate. How serious is the risk when water flows over or around a dam? These conditions can result in erosion, which subsequently could lead to a dam breach or failure and a sudden, uncontrolled release of impounded water. The risk reflects the combin...

Powerful storm systems that hit the U.S. Northeast starting July 9, 2023, dumped close to 10 inches of rain on New York’s Lower Hudson Valley in less than a day and sent mountain rivers spilling over their banks and into towns across Vermont. Vermont Gov. Phil Scott said he hadn’t seen rainfall like it since Hurricane Irene devastated the region in 2011. Extreme water disasters like this have disrupted lives in countries around the world in the past few years, from the Alps and Western Europe to Pakistan, India and Australia, along with several U.S. states in 2022 and 2023. The role of climate change is becoming increasingly evident in these types of deluges. Cars were stranded in floodwater on the campus of the United States Military Academy at West Point, N.Y., on July 10, 2023. U.S. Military Academy via AP Studies by scientists around the world show that the water cycle has been inte...

Hundreds of industrial facilities with toxic pollutants were in Hurricane Helene’s path as the powerful storm flooded communities across the Southeast in late September 2024. Near the coast and into Georgia, Helene swept over paper mills, fertilizer factories and oil and gas storage facilities. Paper mills are among the most polluting industries on the planet – some with thousands of pounds of lead on-site from prior production practices. Florida officials reported that a retired nuclear power plant just south of Cedar Key experienced a storm surge of as much as 12 feet that inundated buildings and an industrial wastewater pond. Spent nuclear fuel stored at the site, which also flooded during Hurricane Idalia in 2023, was believed to be secure, Bloomberg reported. Further inland, the storm dumped more than a foot of rain on industrial sites in the Carolinas and Tennessee, some near waterways that quickly flooded with runoff from the mountains....