Natural disasters

Hurricane Helene caused deadly and destructive flooding when it swept through the Southeast on Sept. 26-29, 2024. Across a broad swath of western North Carolina, where the worst flooding occurred, the amount of rainfall exceeded levels that would be expected on average only once every 1,000 years. But this wasn’t the first 1,000-year rainstorm in North Carolina this year. In mid-September, an unnamed slow-moving storm produced more than a foot of rainfall closer to the Atlantic coast. This storm inundated areas that had already been drenched by Tropical Storm Debby in August. As atmospheric scientists and state climatologists, we believe it’s important for the public to understand the risk that extreme events may occur. That’s especially true as climate change alters the conditions that create and feed storms. Here’s how scientists calculate storm probabilities, and why events like a 1,000-year storm can happen much more frequently in some places than tha...

Millions of Americans have been watching with growing alarm as their homeowners insurance premiums rise and their coverage shrinks. Nationwide, premiums rose 34% between 2017 and 2023, and they continued to rise in 2024 across much of the country. To add insult to injury, those rates go even higher if you make a claim – as much as 25% if you claim a total loss of your home. Why is this happening? There are a few reasons, but a common thread: Climate change is fueling more severe weather, and insurers are responding to rising damage claims. The losses are exacerbated by more frequent extreme weather disasters striking densely populated areas, rising construction costs and homeowners experiencing damage that was once more rare. Hurricane Ian, supercharged by warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, hit Florida as a Category 4 hurricane in October 2022 and caused an estimated $112.9 billion in damage. Ricardo Arduengo/AFP via...

Warm water in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico can fuel powerful hurricanes, but how destructive a storm becomes isn’t just about the climate and weather – it also depends on the people and property in harm’s way. In many coastal cities, fast population growth has left more people living in areas at high risk of flooding. I am a geographer who studies the human dimensions of climate change and natural disasters. My research and mapping with colleagues shows that socially vulnerable communities – those least able to prepare for disasters or recover afterward – tend to be concentrated in areas that are more susceptible to flooding, particularly on the Gulf Coast. Larger, vulnerable populations Nearly 40% of the U.S. population lives in a coastal county today. Many of these areas are increasingly exposed to disasters, including hurricanes and high tide flooding that has been worsened by sea level rise. The Gulf of Mexico region, in particular,...

Over the past two decades, a staggering 21.8 million Americans found themselves living within 3 miles (5 kilometers) of a large wildfire. Most of those residents would have had to evacuate, and many would have been exposed to smoke and emotional trauma from the fire. Nearly 600,000 of them were directly exposed to the fire, with their homes inside the wildfire perimeter. Those statistics reflect how the number of people directly exposed to wildfires more than doubled from 2000 to 2019, my team’s new research shows. But while commentators often blame the rising risk on homebuilders pushing deeper into the wildland areas, we found that the population growth in these high-risk areas explained only a small part of the increase in the number of people who were exposed to wildfires. Instead, three-quarters of this trend was driven by intense fires growing out of control and encroaching on existing communities. A wildfire in 2017 dest...

The heat dome that descended upon the Pacific Northwest in late June 2021 met a population radically unprepared for it. Almost two-thirds of households earning US$50,000 or less and 70% of rented houses in Washington’s King, Pierce and Snohomish counties had no air conditioning. In Spokane, nearly one-quarter of survey respondents didn’t have in-home air conditioning, and among those who did, 1 in 5 faced significant, often financial, barriers to using it. Imagine having no way to cool your home as temperatures spiked to 108 degrees Fahrenheit (43 Celsius), and 120 F (49 C) in some places. People in urban heat islands – areas with few trees and lots of asphalt and concrete that can absorb and radiate heat – saw temperatures as much as 14 F (7.8 C) higher than that. Extreme heat disasters like this are becoming increasingly common in regions where high heat used to be rare. Blackouts during severe heat waves can also leave residents who believe they are...