Mortality

When wildfires rage, the immediate threat is obvious – but smoke from the fires actually kills far more people than the flames. As fires become more frequent, that smoke is leading to a public health crisis. In a new study published in the journal Science Advances, we found that wildfire smoke likely contributed to more than 52,000 premature deaths across California alone from 2008 to 2018, with an economic impact from the deaths of more than US$430 billion. Previous studies have examined the short-term health risks from wildfire smoke, but few have assessed how exposure to wildfire smoke over years adds up to shorten human lives. Smoke from far-off wildfires turns the skies orange over San Francisco in 2020. Running in wildfire smoke carries harmful particles deep into a person’s lungs. AP Photo/Tony Avelar Wildfire risk and severity have grown as the climate has changed and as more...

Weather forecasts have gotten quite good over the years, but their temperatures aren’t always spot on – and the result when they underplay extremes can be lethal. Even a 1-degree difference in a forecast’s accuracy can be the difference between life and death, our research shows. As economists, we have studied how people use forecasts to manage weather risks. In a new working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, we looked at how human survival depends on the accuracy of temperature forecasts, particularly during heat waves like large parts of the U.S. have been experiencing in recent days. We found that when the forecasts underplayed the risk, even small forecast errors led to more deaths. Our results also show that improving forecasts pays off. They suggest that making forecasts 50% more accurate would save 2,200 lives per year across the country and would have a net value that’s nearly twice the annual budget of the National Weather Ser...