How Putin's plans to blackmail Europe over gas supplies failed and how to prepare for next winter

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When gas prices soared uncontrollably every day on European markets last summer, bill prices skyrocketed and supply difficulties portended a cold winter, Europe it seemed one step away from catastrophe. 

Because energy prices around the world are skyrocketing

These were the tones of the main European leaders.German Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned of "catastrophic" industrial closures, disrupted supply chains and mass unemployment.The president of France, Emmanuel Macron, urged citizens to turn down the heat.While former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev predicted a harsh winter for Europe:“The cold will come soon.Europeans will freeze in their homes,” he said last June.

And instead it went better than one could have imagined.Worst-case scenarios did not materialize.The European Union has so far managed to overcome the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and will be able to manage the winter even if Russia were to abruptly cut off all gas flows thanks to alternative supplies and even a winter mild.But this does not mean that the critical situation is definitively behind us, explains the Bruegel think tank.Indeed, it is necessary to prepare now for next winter and fill the storage facilities to 90% by 1 October 2023, aware that Europe will walk a tightrope for the next two years, in the absence of a structural shift away from gas .Energy security, continues the think tank, passes through a continuous structural shift away from gas and a rapid implementation of renewable energy, energy efficiency, heat pumps and collaboration with industry to accelerate the adoption of new low-emission production methods of carbon.

How Europe managed to survive the winter

New suppliers, new infrastructure for liquefied natural gas (LNG), mutual support in case of gas shortages in different countries and energy saving policies.In this way, it reads in an analysis of Guardian, the bloc of 27 European states has managed to replace around 80% of the natural gas it used to draw via Russian gas pipelines and to overcome the progressive reduction in gas supply from Russia.

“Last autumn I feared that some European governments would react to the crisis by prioritizing their own energy supplies and stopping sharing them with neighbors, which would be economically and politically devastating,” explains Simone Tagliapietra, an energy expert at the Bruegel think tank of Brussels.“But Europe has managed to avoid the temptation of protectionism and keep its internal market intact.”

This was the case, for example, of the Netherlands, the EU's largest natural gas producer, which relied on Russian gas for 15-20% of its supplies after closing the huge Groningen field , while doubling their LNG import capacity with storage and regasification units in Rotterdam and Eemshaven.The extra capacities were used to meet domestic demand, which was itself reduced by 22% compared to previous years' averages - and to supply excess gas to the Czech Republic, Germany and France.As with other countries, consumer energy prices have increased, but have been subsidized and capped.

According to the Bruegel's estimates, over the whole of 2022, gas demand in the European Union was 12% lower than the average for the 2019-2021 period.Germany, among the most dependent on Russian gas, last year managed to consume 14% less gas than the average between 2018 and 2021.Gas tanks will be 80% full in February, compared to 36% last year.And the repercussions on German industry were not as catastrophic as Habeck feared.

The Nordic countries they managed to reduce gas consumption to an even greater extent:Denmark reduced total demand - for energy production, industry and home heating - by 24%, Sweden by 36% and Finland by as much as 47% (although natural gas represents only 5% of overall energy requirement).

And finally there has been a commitment to energy saving even on the part of those countries that were initially more reluctant, such as Spain which accepted a 7-8% reduction in gas consumption, after having argued that the common objective of 15% was not fair to those who did not depend on Russian gas.In July, the Socialist-led coalition government announced a series of measures aimed at reducing the country's energy consumption and use of Russian oil and gas.

France managed to overcome a moment of crisis when, from May to October, about half of its 56 reactors remained idle for repair work, turning Europe's biggest electricity exporter into a net importer.By the time French officials had prepared their contingency plan in case of power outages in December, the situation stabilized.By mid-January, 73% of France's nuclear fleet was back in operation, helping France regain its place as the EU's top electricity exporter.

When nuclear power plants struggled, renewables came to the rescue.Notably, Sweden, with an energy mix long dominated by nuclear and hydropower, became Europe's largest electricity exporter in 2022, selling 20% ​​of its production abroad, partly thanks to the rapid growth of onshore wind, writes the Guardian.Plans to expand renewable energy production have been radically accelerated by the energy crisis in all three Nordic countries, with onshore wind and solar power expected to more than double by 2030 and wind set to become the dominant energy source dominant.

The Scandinavian economic context cannot be extended to all of Europe.There are many countries (including Italy) who preferred the path of alternative gas suppliers and the reopening of coal-fired power plants.Poland, for example, which still relies on coal for much of its heating needs, has introduced a coal franchise and frozen electricity prices for individual households and businesses.

How to prepare for next winter

However, the road is not downhill yet.Assuming that Russia continues to supply gas next year, albeit to a limited extent as now, and that weather conditions are seasonal, the EU is called upon to reduce gas demand by 13% by 1 October 2023, beyond current deadline of March 31st, explains Simone Tagliapietra in a detailed Twitter thread summarizing the main aspects of Bruegel's study.

“Two variables will determine the ease with which the objective can be achieved,” observes Tagliapietra:1) The supply of Liquefied Natural Gas and 2) The nature of demand reductions.

On LNG, plans for rapid deployment of floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) will ease concerns about the capacity of the LNG import infrastructure.However, the EU will continue to compete internationally for LNG cargoes and remain vulnerable to global dynamics.From this perspective, economic growth in China could tighten markets.

The way in which the demand for gas is reduced will then determine the economic consequences.So far, sharp reductions in industrial gas demand have not been accompanied by dramatic declines in industrial production, suggesting good substitution options.

However, very little gas was saved in the electricity sector last year, due to weak nuclear and hydroelectric production.The return of French nuclear production could have a positive impact.

Finally, households have reduced their demand for gas, partly as a result of higher-than-normal temperatures.A record number of heat pumps were registered in 2022, suggesting the start of a structural shift away from demand for gas for heating.

The International Energy Agency's plan to cut gas imports from Russia

And politics, concludes Tagliapietra, should support precisely this structural shift away from gas.This involves enabling rapid deployment of renewable energy, energy efficiency, heat pumps and collaboration with industry to accelerate the adoption of new low-carbon production methods.

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Preview image:Audriusa (Audrius Meskauskas), CC BY-SA 3.0, go Wikimedia Commons

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