International Energy Agency:“Global CO2 emissions will grow less than 1% this year thanks to renewable energy”

The weekly round-up on the climate crisis and data on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will increase by less than 1% this year (much less than the nearly 4% increase seen last year) thanks to the rapid growth of renewable energy and electric vehicles that has outpaced the demand for coal.That's it emerges from one new analysis of the International Energy Agency (IEA), according to which the increase of almost 300 million tonnes (MtCO2) was much smaller than the increase of almost 2 billion tonnes expected for 2021.

However, demand for oil is expected to grow more than any other fossil fuel in 2022, with an increase in CO2 emissions of around 180 million tonnes, largely driven by the transport sector, after the easing of restrictions related to the pandemic.The aviation sector contributes around three-quarters of the increase in emissions from oil use, particularly due to increased international air travel, although aviation emissions are still 80% of pre-existing levels. pandemic.

“The global energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine has pushed many countries to turn to other energy sources to replace supplies of Russian natural gas.The encouraging news is that solar and wind are filling much of the gap, while coal's rise appears to be relatively small and temporary,” commented Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA.

Global CO2 emissions would be set for a 3-times-bigger rise in 2022 – of nearly 1 gigatonne – were it not for a major expansion of solar, wind & EVs, new @IEA analysis shows

This is contributing to an improvement in the CO2 intensity of global energy supply, summarizing a key trend pic.twitter.com/fI2MrzY1SQ

— Fatih Birol (@fbirol) October 19, 2022

According to the report, solar PV and wind have led to an increase in global electricity generation from renewable sources by more than 700 terawatt hours (TWh) this year, the largest annual increase on record.Without this increase, global CO2 emissions would have been more than 600 million tonnes higher this year.

Despite drought in several regions, global hydropower production also increased compared to the previous year, contributing more than a fifth of the expected growth in renewable energy.

The European Union's CO2 emissions are set to fall this year, despite an increase in coal emissions that is expected to be temporary, the IEA continues.In China, CO2 emissions are expected to remain essentially unchanged due to a combination of factors, including weaker economic growth, the impact of drought on hydropower and the spread of solar and wind energy.

However, according to a recent study of the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) - which has developed all the "feasible" paths to limit the increase in global warming to 1.5°C since the pre-industrial age - investments in low-emission energy sources of carbon are insufficient to meet climate objectives.All published studies, IISD writes, agree that the development of new oil and gas fields is “incompatible” with the 1.5°C goal.Therefore, redirecting the planned $570 billion in annual oil and gas investment could “fully fund” wind and solar expansion, in line with the 1.5°C goal.

“The international community should be six times more ambitious than it has been this year if it wants to avoid catastrophic climate change and keep global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century,” he adds Bloomberg relaunching another study published by the non-profit research group World Resources Institute (WRI).

According to the research of the WRI, which took stock of the implementation of national emissions reduction contributions (NDCs), the commitments made so far would allow a reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by only 7% compared to 2019 levels by 2030.A far cry from the 43% needed to align with what the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says is sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement goal.

“If we were to maintain the pace we have had so far, the world will not only fail to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, but will miss them by a significant amount,” the report reads.

EU, still no agreement on gas price cap:everything postponed to November 24th

I'm starting over.Not even at the meeting of the European Union energy ministers on Tuesday 25 October in Luxembourg they managed to find an agreement on a scheme that caps the price of gas and agreed to hold another emergency meeting, in a month's time, on November 24.It will be the fourth meeting since last July, when the EU hastily approved measures aimed at saving fuel, filling gas storage depots and stemming high bills.

Last week, the European Commission he presented a series of measures whose drafting requires the approval of the Member States.These include the introduction of a "dynamic ceiling on electricity and gas prices" on the Dutch gas market, where the reference prices for the European Union are set, and the proposal for the joint purchase of gas by EU countries.

Some diplomats they said to Reuters that the summit in Luxembourg was as inconclusive as previous meetings.Germany and the Netherlands continue to be sceptical, arguing that a cap on the price of gas could cause an increase in consumption or make it difficult for countries to purchase enough gas, while Italy and 14 other countries continue to ask for its introduction to limit inflation.

“The main question is how to ensure that the cap allows us to buy the gas we need on the market,” said Czech Energy Minister Jozef Síkela, whose country currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU Council .

Also on the table is the possibility of extending the so-called Spanish model to the entire EU, a state aid program introduced in Spain and Portugal this summer that partially covers the high price of gas used to produce electricity.The subsidy is given to gas-fired power plants and compensates for the difference between the real market price and the maximum price.This translates into lower bills for consumers and businesses.

In an informal document, reports Euronews, the European Commission said that the application of this system throughout the EU would bring about 13 billion euros in net benefits, but at the same time could lead to an increase in gas demand of between 5 and 9 billion cubic meters (bcm).As a state aid program, the Spanish model could lead to high costs for countries that rely heavily on gas-fired power plants, such as Germany, the Netherlands and Italy.Eastern, Nordic and Baltic countries could also enjoy fewer benefits from the measure, given their different energy mixes.France would, however, be the "largest net beneficiary", according to the Commission's estimates.

“It is up to member states to find a solution, especially on how to address flows to third countries or how to agree on cost-sharing principles,” said European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson.

In the informal document, the Commission proposes an alternative route:a new type of long-term contract that would apply only to renewable energy and nuclear power plants, to avoid the contagion effect of gas prices.

Meanwhile, gas prices fell below 100 euros per megawatt hour for the first time since mid-June.However, Czech Energy Minister Síkela commented that “the game is not over, we need an emergency measure, regardless of the position in the [price] curve.”

Meanwhile, France too, afterwards Spain, Poland And Netherlands, pulled out of the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), an agreement among 53 countries designed in the 1990s to “protect private investments in fossil fuels, from extraction to consumption, from policy changes that could threaten their profits”, as writes The Guardian.The treaty, he adds The Financial Times, dissuades governments from phasing out fossil fuels for fear of legal action against them.Investors can, in fact, sue the signatory states of the pact if they believe that their assets are threatened by legislative or political changes.Three energy groups, including Germany's RWE, are suing three European governments over fossil fuel investments.Italy withdrew from the pact in 2016 but remains bound by a 20-year sunset clause.A proposal for the "modernization" of the treaty presented by the European Commission will be discussed in Mongolia next month.

Finally, the energy ministers reached a political agreement on the revision of the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) with the aim of achieving a completely decarbonised and zero-emission building stock within the European Union by 2050.

COP27 in Egypt is the greenwashing of a police state

According to an email seen by the Guardian, civil society organizations and governments they may be forced to cancel the events that will be held in the opening days of the United Nations climate summit, except for meetings involving heads of state, for a strengthening of security measures by the Egyptian organizers.

In the first two days of the COP, world leaders will gather at the convention center for talks and to lead their negotiating teams.And precisely their presence would have made it necessary to close the pavilions in the "blue zone", where negotiations take place and where NGOs, observers and the media can mingle with the delegations.Although sections of the blue zone are always closed for the COPS leaders' summit segment, canceling events that had been scheduled is a highly unusual action by the host country.

NGOs fear that Egypt may intend to limit their activities for the duration of the COP and also prevent street demonstrations, an important part of previous Climate Conferences to put pressure on governments.

“One thing is certain,” writes Naomi Klein in an editorial on Guardian:“We will not achieve the kind of change that the climate crisis requires without the freedom to demonstrate, to sit-in, to speak the truth in public.If demonstrations are banned and inconvenient facts are defined as 'fake news', as happens in al-Sisi's Egypt, then that's it.Without strikes, protests and investigative research, we would be in much worse conditions than we are in.And each of these activities would be enough to land an Egyptian activist or journalist in a dark cell next to Abd El-Fattah's,” the activist symbol of the Arab Spring in prison in Egypt.

By all accounts, Klein continues, the Egyptian government is building a bubble in Sharm el-Sheikh, where it will play the part of something resembling a democracy.The question that civil society groups ask those who will participate in the Climate Conference is:will you play along or will you do everything you can to ruin the show?

John Kerry:“We must resume talks with China to win the climate battle”

In an interview with Guardian, US Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry he urged China to return to the negotiating table with the USA on the climate crisis, to revive stalled global progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

“China accounts for 30% of all emissions.We have to get China involved,” Kerry said.Relations between the two countries have entered a crisis after Nancy Pelosi's visit, Speaker of the House of Representatives, in Taiwan this summer.This visit was considered a serious provocation by Beijing, which claims sovereignty over the disputed islands, and diplomatic relations were effectively interrupted.

“I think China and the United States need to work together to win this [climate] battle.And I'm really very worried about the breakdown of relations due to events that have nothing to do with the climate,” commented Kerry who said he was very upset about what happened.“Personally I strongly disagree.Climate is a universal issue, a universal threat.Without political ideology, without political party.It does not represent global competition.It represents a global threat to the world, from which the two largest emitters and the two largest economies could benefit enormously by coming together and cooperating to try to address it."

With respect to the Climate Conference that will begin on November 6 in Egypt, Kerry said that he does not expect either a significant turning point or a single big decision that could change the course of the climate crisis, but that he hopes for a series of initiatives from countries and in the desire to make progress in reducing emissions.

UNICEF:“1 in 4 children in the world are exposed to intense and frequent heat waves.By 2050 all children could be affected."

In a year that is recording record temperatures, a UNICEF study highlight that 559 million children were affected by high frequency heat waves.The report also estimates that by 2050, all 2.02 billion children in the world will be exposed to a high frequency of heat waves, regardless of whether the world reaches a “low greenhouse gas emissions scenario,” with a estimated warming of 1.7 degrees in 2050, or a “very high greenhouse gas emission scenario” with an estimated warming of 2.4 degrees in 2050.

“Already, 1 in 3 children live in countries facing extreme temperatures and nearly 1 in 4 children are exposed to high frequency heat waves,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell.And the situation is destined to get worse.“Over the next thirty years, more children will be affected by longer, hotter and more frequent heat waves, which will threaten their health and wellbeing.The extent of these changes depends on the actions we take now.At a minimum, governments must urgently limit global warming to 1.5°C and double adaptation funding by 2025.This is the only way to save the lives and futures of children - and the future of the planet."

Heat waves are particularly harmful to children, who are less able to regulate their body temperature than adults.The more children are exposed to heat waves, the greater the chance of health problems, including asthma and cardiovascular disease.Infants and young children are most at risk of heat-related mortality.Heat waves can also affect the environment in which children live, their safety, nutrition and access to water, as well as their education and future livelihoods.

Preview image: catazul away Pixabay