Life on Earth is 'under siege' by man

The weekly round-up on the climate crisis and data on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

In recent days the Sultan, Al Jaber, head of the next United Nations Climate Conference, COP28, which will be held from 30 November to 12 December in Dubai, organized two days of pre-COP talks in Abu Dhabi.Many have defined them crucial.Why?

Because these conversations came in a very particular context:after a summer characterized by prolonged heat waves, droughts, storms, floods;during the war between Israel and Hamas;following the publication of a series of studies and analyzes on the state of the melting of glaciers, on the trend of CO2 emissions, on deforestation, on global warming which are in some ways disheartening. A recent study on Nature found that extreme heat waves in Western Europe increased faster than the 170 climate simulations analyzed by the research expected.Extreme weather events follow one another non-stop, we know what we have to do, yet there is still a strong reluctance to launch towards a zero-emission development model.

Just last week, Hurricane Otis he provoked hundreds of victims in Acapulco, Mexico.Less than a day before it hit Acapulco, meteorologists described Otis as a tropical storm that could only bring heavy rain to Acapulco.But in just 12 hours, Otis reached speeds of 125 miles per hour over the warming waters of the Pacific to become a major hurricane, in what some meteorologists called the most extreme example of "rapid intensification" ever seen, and which Eric Blake, meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center, called it "a nightmare scenario".

“Something like this was bound to happen,” explained climate scientist Michael Mann because the Pacific Ocean near Acapulco was unusually warm for this time of year, due to a combination of fossil fuel pollution and the effects of the El Niño current.And phenomena of this type could occur elsewhere, "in Miami, in Tampa", added Mann.

Ironically, the hurricane hit Acapulco less than a week after the publication of a major report by climate scientist Andra Garner, which he discovered that cases of rapid intensification of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin have doubled in the last half century.And the cause is almost certainly man-made climate change.

“The most important lesson that can be drawn from what has been observed so far about the Earth's climate is its duality:its resilience and fragility”, explains Mann further, adding:“Humans have developed the technology and know-how to prevent the Earth's temperature from dangerously rising further, but what this does is political will, because the climate history of our planet is telling us that if we continue with this trend , everything will get out of control."

In normal times, a tragedy like this would have made the news but instead it went unnoticed.At the same time, while we are in the midst of two conflicts, one in Ukraine, the other between Israel and Hamas, which open up scenarios that are difficult to imagine and which could actually have the effect of delaying the ecological transition in the name of energy security, less than encouraging signs from governments and energy companies that are disinvesting in their clean energy programs.

In short, there is an air of disengagement.The climate seems to increasingly slip out of the priorities of the media and political agendas, indeed it becomes the scene of a political battle, in some cases characterized as a "cultural war", and therefore a space for disinformation and easy propaganda by the so-called climate deniers.Just look at what is happening in the United States, where Biden's climate programs and the new speaker of the House are put at risk he is openly pro-fossil stance. 

The scenario is gloomy and this is also two days of talks it didn't go very well.Countries have been divided over the future of fossil fuels, with some countries, including France, Spain, Ireland, Kenya, asking to include the gradual elimination of fossil fuels in the framework of the negotiations of the next COP.

At the pre-COP talks we should have discussed what to do about emissions, to maintain the 1.5°C threshold, on increasing funding for the most vulnerable and poorest countries, on the fund for "loss and damage" and on “global budget”, an assessment of countries' progress in achieving the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement.Meanwhile, Sultan Al Jaber he threw a “net zero emissions transition charter” aimed at companies, in a bid to encourage more businesses to align their activities with the goals of the Paris Agreement.

2023 is set to be the warmest year on record

Second an analysis of the British site Carbon Brief, which combined several temperature data sets, 99% predicts 2023 will be the warmest year on record.After a cooler start to the year, the last four months have seen truly exceptional global temperatures, far exceeding previous monthly records.The global average temperature recorded in September, 16.44°C, was higher than the July averages from 2001 to 2010.

September 2023 was Earth's warmest September in 174-year record, NOAA confirmed today.With a global mean temperature of 16.44°C, it was warmer than the average July from 2001-2010.

2023 is now virtually certain to become the warmest year ever directly measured. pic.twitter.com/PU8kJ8GTYt

— Nahel Belgherze (@WxNB_) October 13, 2023

According to one analysis published on New York Times According to climate researcher Zeke Hausfather, global warming has accelerated over the past 15 years, rather than continuing at a gradual, steady pace.There are three data points that support this acceleration, explains Hausfather:1) The rate of warming of land and oceans over the past fifteen years has been 40% higher than that recorded since the 1970s, and the past nine years have been the warmest on record;2) There has been an acceleration of the total heat content of the Earth's oceans, where more than 90% of the energy trapped by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere accumulates;3) There has been a sharp increase in the amount of heat trapped on Earth compared to the amount of heat escaping from the atmosphere.All this, concludes Hausfather, leads us to believe that climate change concerns the present, and not the future, as was thought only a few years ago, and in the coming years the ice caps and glaciers will melt more rapidly, extreme meteorological events will become more frequent and an even greater number of plants and animals will be at risk of extinction.

Just in these days, new research from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) he noted that the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is “inevitable” will continue regardless of any reduction in emissions.This means that we will have to prepare for a rise in sea levels of several meters in the coming centuries, explain the authors of the study, who however also said that there is still time to avoid even worse changes in the 22nd century.

Research conducted by Hausfather reached the same conclusions James Hansen, the American scientist who first alerted the world to the greenhouse effect and who, with his testimony to the American Senate in 1988, in which he presented the evidence of global warming, contributed to raising public awareness of the problem.“We are in the early stages of a climate emergency,” warns the study.“This acceleration of global warming – which would lead the planet to surpass the internationally agreed 1.5°C threshold set out in the Paris climate agreement much sooner than expected – is dangerous in a climate system already far from equilibrium ”.Reversing the trend is essential:we need to cool the planet to preserve coastlines and save the world's coastal cities, the study concludes.“We would be damn foolish and bad scientists if we didn't expect an acceleration of global warming,” Hansen said.“We are starting to feel the effects of our Faustian bargain.That's why the rate of global warming is accelerating."

Meanwhile, a group of United Nations researchers - the same ones who first spoke of a "climate emergency" in 2019 - he warned that we are close to exceeding critical risk points that could jeopardize our ability to cope with the effects of climate change.Risk tipping points are different from climate tipping points.Climate tipping points are large-scale changes driven by human-caused global warming, while critical risk points are impacts on people's lives.From a social, economic and health point of view.

“Climate change is one of the biggest public health issues.I see no area in which climate change will not have adverse effects on public health.I know it sounds a little provocative, but climate change may be the last chance for public health, but we need politicians to act." he said recently the director of the Department of Public Health, Environment and Social Determinants of Health of the World Health Organization, Maria Neira.

The picture drawn leaves you breathless.But it is not yet irreversible, explains Hausfather.In this year's World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said demand for oil, gas and coal will peak before 2030, thanks to an explosion in renewable energy.“The transition to clean energy is happening around the world and is unstoppable,” IEA director Fatih Birol said in an interview with AFP.

The IEA formulated this questiontor scenario based not on climate commitments but on the basis of policies declared by governments.So, this means that the global energy transition is underway.For example, in China, demand for fossil fuels will peak as early as next year.While, on a global level, the report talks about 2025.

At the end of this decade, the IEA predicts that renewable energy will provide half of the world's electricity.And this is thanks to the significant progress made globally by individual countries in expanding renewable energy and supporting the transition to electric vehicles and heat pumps (instead of gas boilers) for consumers.

Reaching the peak does not mean that the collapse of fossil fuel consumption will be drastic or imminent.Without stronger climate action there will be a wave-like decline lasting many years.For example, oil demand in the petrochemical, aviation and maritime sectors will continue to increase until 2050, but will be offset by the increase in electric vehicles on the road.

Finally, the IEA predicts that global emissions will still remain high enough that by the end of the century, average global temperatures will increase by about 2.4°C this century.However, and this is the second consideration, according to the agency, the Israel-Hamas war and the war in Ukraine are making oil and gas increasingly less safe energy choices for countries and consumers, and this should accelerate the transition to clean sources.

Despite the IEA's predictions, energy companies like Chevron and Big Oil continue to bet on increasing demand for fossil fuels.ExxonMobil just spent $60 billion to buy a major US shale oil producer, Pioneer, in a deal that will double down on fossil fuels just as scientists (and some countries) are calling for their phase-out.

How the war between Israel and Hamas could slow action on global warming

The war between Israel and Hamas could have negative effects on climate policies.And we could already see the first consequences at the next climate conference.Over the 20 months there has been a lot of mediation work to preserve the climate negotiations from hostilities and fractures following the different positions regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.This new war front, moreover in a region rich in energy sources, amplifies the risks of a further slowdown in the action against global warming.Many countries may be pushed to secure their oil and gas supplies rather than abandon them.

A article of New York Times identifies at least three possible effects of the ongoing war:the increase in the price of oil, with direct repercussions on citizens all over the world;greater conflict between countries which could undermine the already fragile climate diplomacy;the shift to previously predicted climate resource warfare.

The zero waste city:what the German city of Kiel can teach the world

In northern Germany, the city of Kiel is exploring new solutions to produce less waste and recycle even more.The city council has announced several projects ranging from the ban on disposable items in public institutions to the installation of more public drinking fountains, through to the introduction of a specific subject at school on waste disposal and the possible uses generated by waste recycling.And then it is trying to encourage people to change consolidated habits, such as using solid soap bars instead of buying plastic bottles.Or by guaranteeing a contribution of up to 200 euros for the purchase of washable diapers instead of disposable ones.Then there are more systemic proposals:the city is experimenting with a pay-as-you-throw system.It works like this:you only pay for unsorted rubbish based on the amount of rubbish thrown into the mixed waste container.In other words, the more you differentiate the less you pay.

Alongside these good practices, the Municipality of Kiel is also experimenting with actions to combat waste.Leftover meals from restaurants and shops are distributed to those who need them most, while a start-up has been launched that produces jams from fruit and vegetables that are about to be thrown away.

But the fight against waste is not limited to food.Janine Falke, a hairdresser who for two decades has seen her clients' hair fall to the floor and be sent to waste incinerators, has started a company to turn hair from 30 salons in the city into useful products, such as floor mats that they can absorb oil and be used as filters in industry or sewers.

Data on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere

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