France, for Macron "nobody won".The possible scenarios

In a letter to the nation, French President Macron raised the possibility of broad agreements.But the New Popular Front rejects the proposal.

There doesn't seem to be an easy way out at the political crisis which was started in France with the dissolution of Parliament wanted by the president Emmanuel Macron in the aftermath of the European elections, dominated by the ultra-conservative movement of National Rally (Rn).As is known, in the first round of the subsequent legislative elections the predominance of the far-right party was confirmed, but ballots hundreds of candidates or the centre-left coalition (New Popular Front, NFP) or the center that supports Macron withdrew, to concentrate the votes against the RN.

The left, for now, claims the right to govern France as a whole

The result has been achieved: the far right it went from first to third position in terms of seats.And it was the NFP that obtained the relative majority, which therefore immediately claimed the right to express a prime minister.Although it is the president who appoints this figure, practice, in fact, suggests that, reasonably, the government is entrusted to the party (or coalition) that has obtained the greatest number of seats.Even if these do not reach the absolute majority.In the 2022 legislative elections, for example, the centrist coalition ranked first but only with a relative majority.Yet Macron had not hesitated to entrust the executive to his group.

Sure, any “minority government” will inevitably find itself in a particularly difficult situation from a political point of view:except for the possibility of passing for gods decrees, in order to get the laws approved it will inevitably be necessary to try to create variable geometry majorities, allying themselves from time to time with other groups with which, in fact, to work on compromises.

Macron writes to the French and raises the possibility of broad agreements

This is the meaning of a letter sent Wednesday 10 July from Macron to French citizens, in which he noted the fact that a majority of voters do not want the far right in government, but then explained that in his opinion “nobody won” legislative elections.And that's why he actually left the choice of prime minister is pending, evoking the need to “build a solid majority, necessarily plural”.An endorsement therefore to some “broad understandings”, without however specifying precisely which forces.

A letter which, at least in intention, should have represented a step towards "pacification", but which in reality, as underlined by the main French newspaper, Le Monde, achieved the opposite effect of “rekindle political tensions”. Especially in the New Popular Front, which in a joint statement reiterated its victory and reminded the president of the need to choose a prime minister from the progressive coalition.

Progressive leaders respond:“The election result is denied”

In the meantime, the leader of the government has openly nominated himself for the position of head of government Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, who he accused Macron at the same time of "not respecting the vote of the French".Same position on the part of the national secretary of the Greens (Eelv), Marine Tondelier, who spoke of “denial that damages the country and democracy”.

“Stop avoiding the outcome of the polls,” added the leader of the Communist Party French, Fabien Russell.While Mathilde Panot, de La France Insoumise, spoke of a "presidential coup that denies the election results".

The positions of foreign newspapers on the situation in France

The positions of Le Monde and the transalpine left-wing parties also appear substantially shared by numerous international newspapers.If the Swiss newspaper The Temps criticizes Macron's wait-and-see choice, believing that it “it will make opposition grow”, Political highlights how the choice "not to consider that of the New Popular Front as a victory will provoke a raising of shields left".

So much so that, according to the New York Times, there is a risk of sowing in this way “the seeds of a drift”.The American newspaper then adds:“The fact that a president of the Fifth French Republic, and in particular a president who has so far strongly circumvented the Parament, now says that we should follow the example of Italy or Belgium by adopting a more parliamentary culture gives the measure of the upheaval that Macron has caused with his mysterious decision to go to elections."

What Macron could do now

If the dissolution of the French Parliament has therefore precipitated the political situation in a rather phase uncertain, the position taken by the Elysée after the legislative elections does not seem to simplify the picture.Furthermore, for one year it will not be possible to proceed with a new dissolution of the National Assembly.If the New Popular Front "holds" and is not divided between those who agree to govern with the centrists and those who reject any proposals of this kind, Macron could be forced to accept the attempt of a progressive minority executive.

Otherwise, it could still impose a prime minister of his field (with an even more minority government), with the risk, however, of opening a huge rift in French society.Nor can the possibility of a caretaker government be ruled out.But here too, it would be necessary to see which parliamentarians would agree to support him.And, once again, if we exclude the RN, everything will depend on whether or not the NFP is compact.