Climate, Massimo Tavoni (IPCC):«Italy had to replace Russian gas with renewables, not with other gas.So the transition slows down" – The interview

The scientist (among the authors of the latest UN report on climate) at Open:«We are one of the EU countries most at risk, but on climate policies we only play defense»

The risks are known, the solutions are within reach and there is little time available.Last March 20, the IPCC - the UN intergovernmental panel on climate change - published the final document of its sixth synthesis report.A long, complex and detailed report, which summarizes the state of knowledge of climate change and the risks resulting from it.The next report will be published around 2030, the same date by which the European Union has committed to reducing its CO2 emissions by 55% (compared to 1990 levels).But at what point is the ecological transition in Italy?«In many sectors, starting with energy, we still have a long way to go», replies Massimo Tavoni, senior scientist of the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) and author of the last two reports published by the IPCC.«Droughts and floods demonstrate that Italy is one of the European countries most at risk.This should push us to have a proactive role on climate policies, and not just a defensive role", adds Tavoni, who is also a professor of climate economics at the Polytechnic of Milan.

The latest IPCC report, which you helped write, suggests that we are at a crucial juncture in the fight against climate change.Is that so?

"Certainly.The actions to be taken between now and 2030 are fundamental to being able to stabilize the climate in the years to come.However, I would not insist on the catastrophic message, because in the long term it risks losing effectiveness.The latest IPCC report also brings us some positive news:There are solutions to mitigate the effects of climate change and they cost much less than a few years ago."

What role does Italy play in climate policies?

«Italy's role itself is rather modest.The climate policies that our country will have to implement are those established by the European Union, which represents 10% of the planet's emissions.The European package of climate measures developed in recent years is the most advanced in the world and sets some very clear objectives, in line with the suggestions of science."

Let's talk about objectives:the EU has set a 55% reduction in CO2 emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2030.Will we make it?Or have we set the bar too high?

«It is a decidedly ambitious target, we must not hide it.However, it should be kept in mind that emissions have already fallen by 25/30% compared to 1990 levels.In other words:half the work has already been done.Achieving the objectives set for 2030 is possible and will largely depend on climate policies.The EU package is well constructed and puts us on the right track.To know whether we will succeed or not, we will need to follow the implementation of the measures by governments step by step."

And Italy?

«I admit I have some concerns about this.The current government, and partly also the previous ones, give the sensation of wanting to back down and not take European objectives seriously.This would be a big risk.We are the third largest European economy and if we miss all the opportunities deriving from ecological and energy transformation we will have not only environmental but also economic damage."

Yet there are some sectors in which our country is at the forefront.

«We are well ahead of other European countries in the recycling chain.Indeed, the growth of the sector demonstrates the opportunities that lie in the ecological transition.Unfortunately, however, recycling does not have much of an impact on emissions."

What are the areas where we need to accelerate?

«First of all, energy.Until about ten years ago we were among the most advanced countries in Europe in terms of renewables, but now we are struggling a lot.We have many connection requests and a high potential for electricity production, but the authorization processes are long and complicated.It only remains to hope that regulatory simplifications can now unblock the situation.The other European countries have drawn up very ambitious installation plans, while we are still dramatically behind.The same goes for transport, especially in light of the government's attempts to protect the internal combustion engine."

Let's go back to energy.The government has said it wants to make Italy a European "energy hub".Is this a good strategy?

«We are focusing too much on gas.To achieve the objectives we have set ourselves in Europe, we should reduce consumption by a third between now and 2030.And a third of the gas is precisely the percentage we imported from Russia:we should have replaced it – at least in part – with renewables.As regards infrastructure, the projects for new pipelines in the Adriatic also lead us towards an important role for gas.We must recognize that these are strategies that are incompatible with the 2030 objectives."

Transport and buildings are two other fundamental sectors for reducing emissions.Yet the housing directive and the car regulation have been highly contested in Italy.How can we make these interventions more "desirable" by public opinion?

«We have already spent a lot of money on the renovation of the buildings.The example of the Superbonus, despite having brought modest benefits, has shown that we know how to make policies that work.Regarding transport, however, I believe that the resistance concerns the industry more than public opinion.In any case, it is essential to be able to explain well what we are facing:the electric transition of the transport sector and sustainable mobility are solutions that bring only benefits."

In recent years we have learned that climate change is not only a problem of the future, but also of the present.What are the consequences that will affect Italy in the coming years?

«Italy is in a hotspot of climate change.This means that we are in a particularly vulnerable and at-risk position.Already today we see disasters of various kinds in the Mediterranean basin and extreme meteorological events will intensify in the coming years:both of drought, as we are already seeing, and of floods.This is why it is important, in addition to strategies to reduce emissions, to develop an adaptation plan.The fact that we are in a high-risk position should spur us to have a proactive role on climate policy, not a defensive role."

Cover photo credits:ANSA/ANDREA FASANI | The dry Po river (July 2022)