Climate crisis, the reopening of dialogue between China and the United States could be the turning point of Cop27 in Egypt

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The weekly round-up on the climate crisis and data on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

The G20 in Indonesia could also have important repercussions on the climate agenda and give a small jolt to the United Nations Climate Conference underway in Egypt.On November 14, on the eve of the G20 in Indonesia, US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met.It is the first direct contact after the congress in China and the mid-term elections in the United States.The two leaders have taken steps towards reopening the climate dialogue, meeting the demands of US special climate envoy John Kerry, who just three weeks ago he had urged the two countries to resume negotiations.

“The world expects, I think, that China and the United States will play a key role in addressing global challenges, from climate change to food insecurity, and that they will be able to work together.The United States stands ready to do just that, to work with you, if that is your desire,” he said Biden.After the meeting, the White House released a statement saying the two leaders “agreed to empower key senior officials to maintain communication and deepen constructive efforts” on climate change and other issues.Also the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs he released a statement declaring that “big changes are underway like never before.Humanity is facing unprecedented challenges.The world has reached a crossroads.Where should we go?".

The United States and China are the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases which have brought global temperatures on average 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, close to the 1.5°C threshold beyond which there could be irremediable changes for the planet.The agreement between the two countries had contributed to reaching the Paris Agreement in 2015, the first pact on global warming in which both developed and developing countries committed to reducing greenhouse gases.“It is unimaginable to keep the increase in global temperatures within 1.5°C without the United States and China talking to each other for the rest of this decade,” commented Li Shuo, a Greenpeace policy advisor in Beijing.“The two countries must send the signal that climate change represents an existential threat to humanity that is worth putting aside our differences.”

Talks between the two states have been frozen for months amid rising tensions over trade, Taiwan and a range of security issues.During this first week of COP in Egypt, the US climate envoy, Kerry, and his counterpart for China, Xie Zhenhua, did not have formal meetings, although many saw them together several times.

“There is no way to address the climate challenge we face without the cooperation of all G20 members and in particular without the cooperation of the two largest economies, the United States and China.And I am very happy that the two countries had a summit today,” he commented the Secretary General of the United Nations António Guterres.

“States like to hide behind the USA and China and say:‘If the two biggest polluters aren't working together, why should we?'” explains Bernice Lee, a climate policy expert at the UK's Chatham House Institute.For this reason, the reopening of dialogues between China and the United States could give a jolt to the talks at COP27 in Egypt in the very week in which a final text must be agreed.Although it is not yet clear how the renewed cooperation between Washington and Beijing can translate into concrete agreements by November 18, the closing day of the Climate Conference.

Indeed, the two countries disagree on several fronts.Starting with the establishment of a new fund to help poor countries cope with the losses and damage caused by continuous climate disasters, such as the devastating floods in Pakistan and Nigeria or the need to relocate island communities due to rising levels of the sea.Hypothesis which the Biden administration opposes, writes The New York Times, “partly because it is unlikely to get funding from Congress, and partly because the administration does not want to be held responsible for the spiraling costs of global disasters.”Kerry added that there couldn't be a new fund without China's involvement, sparking the envoy's resentment of China's climate.Beijing – which, however, clings to its status as a developing country and not an industrialized nation within the UN climate body – would be willing to spend money to help poorer countries, but only through separate channels .Then there is the question of commitments to keep global warming within 1.5°C.In recent days there were rumors that China wanted to resist mentioning this objective in the official text of COP27 but, reports Reuters, Chinese envoy Xie Zhenhua said China is not opposed to explicitly referring to it in the final document of the Climate Conference.

In any case, writes the think tank Here, the talks in Indonesia, during the summit of the G20 countries, could be useful in Egypt to break the deadlock in which climate negotiations find themselves after the first week of COP27.

So far there has been more talk about adapting to the effects of the climate crisis than about mitigating climate change.But, as he observes analyst Annalisa Perteghella on Twitter, “without a reduction in emissions, climate impacts are destined to increase, and with them the amount of funds required to repair the damage.

The slowness of the negotiations at a certain point gave rise to fears that the final agreement could sacrifice the 1.5°C limit, returning in some way to the pre-Paris 2015 era.“There are too many unresolved issues.If we create a logjam in the process, we will not get a result worthy of the crisis,” he commented at the BBC the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Simon Stiell.

Here is the British site Carbon Brief is keeping track of the progress of the negotiations:

According to two reports published in recent days, edited respectively by the Global Carbon Project (GCP) and Climate Action Tracker, the trend of Co2 emissions and the actions taken to tackle the energy crisis are accelerating the moment in which we will exceed the threshold of fateful 1.5°C.

In 2022, show the Global Carbon Budget study, we have released 40.6 billion tons of Co2 into the atmosphere.At this rate, writes Ferdinando Cotugno on Twitter, "to date we have a one in two chance of exceeding the first critical threshold of +1.5°C in nine years."If, however, emissions continued at current levels, we would exceed 1.5°C in about six and a half years.To reach zero emissions by 2050, the report explains, we need a reduction of 1.4 billion tonnes of Co2 every year, essentially what happened in 2020 thanks to the lockdowns due to the pandemic, but this time with a long-term structural change term of the economy.Which reflects the immense scale of the challenge we face.

The study of Climate Action Tracker notes, however, that the construction of all liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects under construction, approved and proposed between now and 2050, seriously threatens the achievement of the 1.5°C objective.

Climate Action Tracker's findings suggest, therefore, that any increase in fossil fuel production, including gas, would be in direct conflict with the goals of the Paris Agreement.Indeed, the starting point of any energy policy should include the suspension of investments in the expansion, exploration and production of new fossil fuels.And instead last week the Egyptian presidency underlined "the vital role of oil and gas in the energy transition", in clear contrast with the requests of many African leaders for a transition to renewable energy and who spoke of "energy colonialism": the West's rush to gas from poorer countries most affected by the climate crisis which ends up imprisoning them in polluting fossil fuel projects with little economic or energy benefit for the communities whose land, water and heritage will be sacrificed. An estimated 600 million people across Africa still lack access to electricity, largely because the majority of fossil fuel investment is directed at infrastructure for export rather than providing downstream energy to Africans , writes Nina Lakhani on Guardian.“As we push for a rapid transition, we need to think more critically about investments and their regulation, so that energy is less extractive, companies are held accountable, and communities benefit through co-ownership or community ownership ,” explains Thea Riofrancos, a professor of political science at Providence College and an expert on resource extraction, renewable energy, climate change and social movements.“A just transition depends on energy systems that work for all,” notes Lakhani.

Even the International Energy Agency (IEA), in a new report published on November 15, he stated that "iThe world must move quickly to significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions from coal to avoid the severe impacts of climate change, calling for immediate political action to rapidly mobilize massive financing for clean energy alternatives to coal and to ensure safe transitions , accessible and equitable, especially in emerging and developing economies."

From this point of view, India has put forward a disruptive proposal asking to extend the ecological transition to all fossil fuels. As reported from Bloomberg, India is in fact pushing for COP27 to conclude with a decision on the gradual reduction of all fossil fuels, and therefore not just coal.European Commission Vice President Timmermans spoke in favour, provided that this does not "diminish" the coal phase-out agreement reached at COP26 in Glasgow. At the same time, he adds Reuters, India unveiled a report saying it will prioritize a gradual transition to cleaner fuels and reducing household consumption to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070, thus meeting its 2021 decarbonization commitments.India's long-term plan focuses on six key areas, including electricity, urbanization, transportation, forests, finance and industry.“What's new about the plan is that it focuses on reducing consumption at the individual or household level, as well as including carbon capture, use and storage,” explains Taryn Fransen, an international climate change policy expert at the institute non-profit World Resources Institute.

Finally, as regards the issue of "losses and damage", i.e. the impacts that can be repaired and those that are irreversible, for the first time the hypothesis of the creation of a dedicated fund has entered the official agenda of the negotiations, with the commitment to finding a solution by 2024.However, as mentioned, the divisions between industrialized and emerging countries are clear.Biden relaunched the German G7 Global Shield proposal, which provides for insurance mechanisms but does not include the compensation part, "a fundamental element of climate justice required by developing countries", comments Perteghella.The Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, has officially launched the Bridgetown Initiative, his idea of ​​reforming the international financial system and multilateral development banks.

The situation is critical, he warned al Guardian the Administrator of the United Nations Development Programme, Achim Steiner:“Currently 54 developing countries are at risk of default and if there are further shocks - rising interest rates, more expensive borrowing, rising energy and food prices - it will become almost inevitable to see a number of these economies unable to pay."And a possible default “certainly won't help [climate] action...the debt issue has become such a big problem for many developing economies that addressing the debt crisis becomes a prerequisite for actually accelerating climate action.”

Some developing countries risk walking out of the United Nations climate negotiations if governments in developed nations do not keep their long-standing promise to provide $100 billion a year in assistance to help the poorest and most vulnerable countries. climate change to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of extreme climate events.

Meanwhile, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) he published a draft text on “loss and damage” financing on which countries could converge at the end of COP27.According to this draft there would be two options for financing losses and damages:a first envisages that the process will lead to “financing provisions” by November 2024 through a United Nations financing instrument;a second would postpone until 2023 the decision on the role of the UN climate body in a broader "mosaic" of options for financing loss and damage.“Loss and damage financing for developing nations and national support for clean energy industries may be politically difficult, but they are necessary investments,” comment Frank Jotzo, professor at the Crawford School of Public Policy and director of the Center for Climate Economics and Policy at the Australian National University.

A media group has called for imposing a climate tax on fossil fuel giants

The Guardian and dozens of international newspapers have published a joint editorial calling for radical reflection on how to finance climate action in the poorest countries.“Humanity must end its dependence on fossil fuels.Rich countries represent only one in eight people in the world today, but are responsible for half of greenhouse gases.These nations have a clear moral responsibility to help others,” reads the joint editorial, coordinated by Guardian.“Climate change is a global problem that requires the cooperation of all nations.This is no time for apathy or complacency;the urgency of the moment is upon us.”[Continue reading here]

TuNur, the green energy export model from North Africa to the EU

A British-Tunisian company is planning a giant solar power plant in the Tunisian desert, a plant that requires enormous water consumption.However, green energy will only go to Europe, write Arianna Poletti and Aïda Delpuech on Irpi."We are not opposed to renewables, but we ask for a fair energy transition, which takes into consideration local social and environmental demands and does not reproduce the dynamics of the fossil industry", repeat the communities observing the installation of European solar panels from the window house.[Continue reading here]

A US-Japan-led climate pact will offer Indonesia $15 billion to transition away from coal

US, Japan and other countries will collectively offer a climate finance deal worth at least $15 billion to help Indonesia transition away from coal, reports Bloomberg.The deal would allow Indonesia to accelerate efforts to stop excess fossil fuel production and limit coal-fired power projects, factors that currently hamper the development of renewable energy.[Continue reading here]

The frightening retreat of the Fellaria glacier in a time-lapse:"It's not easy to find the adjectives to describe what has happened in the last 4 months"

The frightening retreat of the Fellaria glacier in a time-lapse of the torrid summer of 2022.The video was created by the Lombard Glaciological Service and testifies to the melting experienced by the Fellaria Glacier, in the Upper Valmalenco, in the last 4 months, with various comparisons, including multi-year ones, starting from 2019.

"It is not easy to find the right adjectives - write the experts of the Glaciological Service - to describe what has happened in the last 4 months on the Lombard, Italian and Alpine glaciers.It is true that in a climate regime characterized by rising temperatures, records are more easily broken, but the hydrological year 2021-2022 was something more, something so anomalous that it forced us to update all the graphic scales for our financial statements mass, something we hoped would not arrive so soon and with this force."[Continue reading here]

Preview image:Bloomberg video frame via YouTube

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