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https://www.lifegate.it/elezioni-presidenziali-usa-2024-clima
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In American political jargon, we speak of "October surprise” to refer to an unpredictable event that messes up the cards a few weeks before the presidential elections.Like the alleged conspiracy linked to the hostage crisis of which there was much speculation on the eve of the confrontation between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter.Or, to cite more recent examples, the investigation into emails that Hillary Clinton she had sent from her personal address while serving as Secretary of State.In the hectic weeks leading up to the presidential elections of 5 November 2024, protagonists of the front pages - and, above all, of the lives of American citizens - were the Hurricanes Helene And Milton which hit Florida and other southern states one after the other.Demonstrating, if there was still need, how much the United States is enormously exposed to the consequences of climate crisis.A crisis of which they are historically the first responsible, by volume of greenhouse gas emissions.It is therefore fundamental, in view of the challenge between the democratic Kamala Harris and the Republican Donald Trump, take stock of what the outgoing administration did, come on big issues still open and how the two candidates intend to address them.
- Climate, the balance of four years of Joe Biden's administration
- The climate positions of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Climate, the balance of four years of Joe Biden's administration
During the first day of his term as the 46th president of the United States, Joe Biden started the procedure to bring the United States back into theParis climate agreement, abandoned by will of his predecessor Donald Trump.The text requires states to present their promises to reduce emissions (nationally determined contributions, ndc):which the Biden administration has done, pledging to cut emissions 50-52 percent by 2030, compared to 2005 levels.
In addition to CO2 there are other gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect, for example hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) and methane.For the reduction of the former, the Senate has ratified the Kigali Amendment and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) he issued ad hoc regulations.The methane, Instead, is at the center of a action plan approved by the Biden administration in November 2022 and supported by around fifty specific measures, financed with 20 billion dollars.During COP28 in Dubai, the EPA announced a specific rule to reduce methane emissions from oil and natural gas plants.
Inflation reduction act
Clearly, it's one thing to announce a goal, it's another thing to achieve it.This is what theInflation reduction act (approved in the summer of 2022) which, despite its name, it's the greatest plan of climate investments in American history.A regulation that was not easy to gestation, visibly scaled down compared to the initial ambitions, but which nevertheless spurred the adoption of clean technologies.According to data collected by E2 coalition, as of its approval have been announced 348 large projects related to renewable energy in forty American states, for a total volume of investments exceeding 129 billion dollars.All this contributed to the creation of more 112 thousand jobs.The package also provides generous tax breaks, aimed for example at citizens who buy electric cars and renovate their homes to reduce consumption.
Zero emission mobility
The World Resources Institute takes stock of the climate goals that the Biden administration has achieved and those that it has failed to achieve.With regard to the elimination of emissions from new vehicles, speaks of “significant progress”.In 2021, in fact, Joe Biden has set the goal for which, on all new vehicles for transporting passengers sold, 50 percent must be zero-emission by 2030.The EPA, for its part, has tightened the parameters to be respected on emissions from cars and vans;the administration did the same for i heavy vehicles, with the aim of avoiding emitting one billion tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by 2055.
It is estimated that, thanks also to these interventions, more than half of the new cars sold by 2030 will be electric or plug-in hybrid;in 2023 the market share was 9 percent, a strong growth compared to the previous year.A network will certainly be needed charging stations, to be built also thanks to funding of 5 billion dollars allocated through the bipartisan infrastructure law.
Renewable sources and energy efficiency
2035 is the deadline that Joe Biden has set for the complete decarbonization of the electricity production in the United States.A transition aided by the tax breaks contained in the Inflation Recuction Act, but also by the obligation for federal agencies to source exclusively clean energy by the end of the decade.The limits imposed on emissions from fossil fuel power plants will also play a role, because they will make renewable plants more convenient.According to the World Resources Institute, it is still too early to say whether this is a great goal will actually be achieved.The weak point, in particular, lies in the infrastructure necessary to transport the energy produced from the sunniest and windiest areas to cities and industrial areas, where the demand is concentrated.
In parallel, the Inflation Reduction Act introduces tax relief and a 9 billion dollar fund to push the installation of technologies to reduce consumption and emissions from buildings, including heat pumps, household appliances with good energy performance, storage systems.The manufacturing of heat pumps, in particular, requires acceleration.The Department of Energy has strengthened standards on the energy efficiency of some household appliances, including refrigerators, freezers, water heaters and washing machines, but others are missing.We start talking about eliminate gas in new buildings, but only at the state level:New York, for example, is moving in this direction.
It must be said, however, that during the Biden presidency, the same one that approved the Inflation Reduction Act, the oil production reached 14 million barrels a day, making the United States the world's largest producer of crude oil.Indeed, if on the one hand the ecological transition is proceeding at a rapid pace, on the other hand the investments made in the past for energy independence, combined with the soaring energy prices, have meant that oil and gas deposits have become very more fruitful in economic terms.The absolute protagonist natural gas, extracted using the fracking technique.
And it's true that the Biden administration has saved by drills important parts of the territory, for example an area of 53 thousand kilometers in Alaska, but it is also true that he gave the green light to a climate bomb like the Willow project.This is a giant drilling project that will have the same impact as reigniting a third of the coal plants in the United States.
Carbon tax
There is one point on which, according to the analysis of the World Resources Institute, the Biden administration is completely off track:the so-called carbon tax, i.e. a tax on greenhouse gas emissions.The European Union has introduced mechanisms which, albeit partially, are attributable to this approach:this is the case of emissions trading system (ETS) and of CO2 compensation mechanism at the border.In the United States, the debate is still at an embryonic level.In 2023, the process of some laws began (the so-called Prove it and the Foreign pollution fee act) intended to discourage downward price competition by foreign companies, subject to milder environmental regulations.
The climate positions of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Will the United States really be able to hit its decarbonization goals?The answer will largely depend on who comes out on top US presidential elections of November 5, 2024.And if it is true that in various respects Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are poles apart from each other, it is also true that winning over the undecided electorate in swing states requires compromising.
Exemplary the theme ofenergy, on which all the others depend in cascade.After two decades of substantial stability, the demand for electricity has started to visibly grow again, partly due to the economic and industrial recovery and partly due to the strong requirements from data centers, del cryptocurrency mining and the emergence of electric mobility.On how to produce this electricity, Trump's recipe is always the same:“Drill, baby, drill”.The oil giants are very happy with it, so much so that they gave it to him generous donations (but far lower than to the billion dollars he aspired to).Trump, on the other hand, is the president who has expressed denialist positions towards climate change and pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement.If re-elected, he assures that he will do it again, indeed:he's afraid to say goodbye too United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
More nuanced, instead underlines an analysis by Grist, the position of Harris.When she was California's attorney general, she made headlines for stopping a Pacific Coast drilling plan that would have employed the controversial fracking technique and it had been endorsed by Barack Obama.“Forced” to win in Pennsylvania, a state that on the extraction of natural gas hinges on a good portion of the economy and employment, he guaranteed that the hypothesis of banning the fracking it's out of the question.When she was a senator, Harris had supported the Green new deal Of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.During the televised debate with Donald Trump, proudly claimed the boom of oil production during the Biden administration, because it frees the United States from dependence on foreign countries.
With i polls essentially tied, it would be a useless exercise in style to make predictions on the concrete consequences that the 2024 US presidential elections will entail for the climate.What is certain is that there will be consequences.Because climate action cannot do without the first global economy.And because, vice versa, the first global economy must decide about what shape his leadership.It can remain anchored to a model that perhaps guarantees immediate profits but has an expiry date.Or it can courageously embrace the ecological transition, aware of the complexities it brings with it.