The heat causes olive oil production to drastically drop in Italy

The forecasts for olive oil production in Italy are pessimistic, while Spain seems close to recovering from the crisis of the last two years.

• In Italy, olive oil production of 250 thousand tonnes is expected for the 2024-2025 campaign.
• The situation in Puglia is particularly critical, due to heat waves and drought.
• Spain, on the other hand, is coming off two very bad years but should return to above-average production volumes.

The fact that the summer of 2024 was warmer than average it's not just a common perception.It is a reality supported by scientific data.In Europe, both the month of June and the month of July they were the second hottest on record.It is inevitable that such a climate will have serious consequences on agriculture, so much so that - with the olive oil campaign not yet concluded - a drastic decline in olive oil production.

Forecasts on olive oil production in Italy

In Italy also the 2023-2024 olive oil campaign it was difficult, again due to the climate, due to the winter drought followed by the spring rains.The good performances of Puglia and Calabria compensated for the disappointing ones in the north, reaching a national total of 325 thousand tonnes.For the 2024-2025 campaign, Italia Olivicola – the main organization of Italian olive production – he is pessimistic:in fact, it is estimated that the total production of olive oil will be equal to 250 thousand tons, with a decrease of 23 percent compared to the previous campaign.

The fact that i production volumes of olive groves fluctuating between one year and the next is normal, but it is not the only factor at play:regions such as Sicily, Calabria and Puglia have in fact had to deal with endless heat waves and droughts which have compromised yields.Particularly in difficulty Puglia, from which half of the national production comes:according to the specialized newspaper Olive and oil, production will drop by 30 percent compared to last year.Some olive growers from the province of Foggia they report to Euronews their difficulties in water supply, due to the very low water levels in the artificial basins.

The situation in Spain, the world's leading producer of olive oil

In Mediterranean European countries, olive groves – traditional, intensive and super-intensive – occupy approximately 4 million hectares.It follows that the Union, alone, covers approximately 67 percent of global olive oil production and 65 percent of exports.The first country in the world for production, there Spain, has just returned from two years of very serious drought waves, sporadically interrupted by strong storms.Compared to an average of 1.2 million tons per year, in 2022/2023 olive oil campaign a minimum of 664 thousand was reached.The following year the weather was more favorable, especially thanks to the spring rains, and production stood at 851 thousand tons:better than expected, but still much worse than historical data.

Due to the law of supply and demand, the decline in oil availability has gone hand in hand with a price increase for final consumers.So much so that since 1 July the government has exempted olive-based products from value added tax (VAT).The farmers, however, they accuse the supermarket chains of having artificially inflated prices, pocketing more generous margins at the expense of consumers.According to the headline the Economist, the end of the emergency should be near:for the current olive growing campaign, olive oil production of between 1.4 and 1.7 million tonnes is expected, with a significant drop in final prices.