Azerbaijan, the ruling party wins the parliamentary elections but there is no democracy in the COP29 country

President Ilham Aliyev's party confirms the majority of seats, but international observers speak of an undemocratic vote.New wave of repression in the petro-state which will host the United Nations Conference on Climate Change in November

In the early parliamentary elections that were held in Azerbaijan on September 1, 2024 — the first since the country regained control of the territory last year Nagorno Karabakh disputed with theArmenia — the president's ruling party Ilham Aliyev it retained its majority, securing 68 out of 125 seats.These at least are the partial results released at the end of the counting of 91 percent of the ballots (the definitive results will be announced by September 22nd).But essentially little changes:the ruling party of New Azerbaijan confirms the number of seats already occupied in parliament, in an election characterized by a rather high turnout low (37.27 percent, the lowest figure recorded in parliamentarians since the country gained independence from the USSR in 1991), and from "a political context and legislative restrictive that does not allow for authentic pluralism", as denounced byOsce, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.

The Azerbaijani political scene is in fact dominated by President Aliyev's New Azerbaijan party which, in addition to occupying almost 60 percent of the seats can also rely on a group of political parties loyal to the government line.If we add to this the control of information, sanctioned by the media law adopted in 2022, the repression of civil liberties and critical voices, the general impoverishment of public debate and the weakening of the political opposition recorded in recent years, the portrait that emerges is that of a country that Freedom House defines “not free”.

In these latest elections, which were supposed to take place in November but were brought forward for the Cop29, the Conference of the United Nations on climate change which will be held in that period in the capital Baku, many opposition parties decided to boycott the vote, as did the Azerbaijan Popular Front, which did not show up in the elections speaking of total absence of transparency.THEthe other major opposition party, Musavat, however, decided to change tactics and for the first time in fifteen years presented its candidates, without however obtaining even one seat.The remaining seats will therefore be assigned to formally independent candidates and minor parties, which in fact support the government.

Despite the presence of 279 observers from 34 countries, there was no shortage of complaints of fraud and violations, and according to Musavat leader Arif Hajili, the voting “did not take place in a democratic environment”.

“The authoritarian regime in Azerbaijan has been consolidated over many years and it would be anachronistic to observe the ongoing political process through the concept of democratic transition — commented to LifeGate Laurence Broers, one of the leading experts on Caucasus politics, director of the 'Caucasus' program of the independent peacebuilding organization Conciliation Resources, as well as co-founder of Caucasus Survey, the first scientific magazine dedicated to this region -.We should instead analyze Azerbaijan's politics by making a comparison with other authoritarian regimes, and therefore asking ourselves what type of authoritarianism we are dealing with, how it works, how it is legitimized, what role democratic institutions have in helping to consolidate this regime.In the country, for example, there are opposition parties, but they are to all intents and purposes excluded from the political arena."

Who is President Ilham Aliyev

In office since 2003, re-elected for the fifth consecutive time in February 2024 with 92 percent of the votes, Ilham Aliyev is the undisputed protagonist of the Azerbaijani political scene.In fact, it is in his hands that the power inherited from his father is concentrated today, Heydar Aliyev, a KGB man who led the country under Soviet rule and was installed as president after a military coup in 1993, following the breakup of the Eastern Bloc.

In these twenty years of government, in addition to having given impetus to the process of modernization of the country, whose economy is based on hydrocarbons (The gas and the petrolium constitute 90 percent of Azerbaijani exports, and together they form 60 percent of the public budget), the current president Ilham Aliyev has armored his seat by extending it the presidential mandate from 5 to 7 years and removing the limit on the president's re-election beyond two terms.

The military victory over the Armenian separatists of Nagorno Karabakh in September 2023, with which Aliyev today boasts the merit of having "reunified" the country, it then guaranteed him an important internal political consecration: a card which is liked by a large part of the population, who have always seen the Armenians as historic adversaries.

“When Ilham Aliyev was appointed president in 2003, there were mass protests and his presidency began with a lack of legitimacy,” he explained. Laurence Broers —.Since then Aliyev has always tried to legitimize his position, first of all through a process of socio-economic development of the country which with the inauguration of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline in 2006 led to the oil boom.The profits were enormous and this made it possible to introduce public and social programs that benefited large sectors of the population.All this, combined with a political strategy aimed at preventing and disarming the opposition, allowed Ilham Aliyev to broaden his consensus."

Azerbaijan and foreign policy 

Today, with the formation of the multipolar world that we talk about so much, Azerbaijan is pursuing a foreign policy aimed at maintaining good relations with various states as much as possible, from Russia of Vladimir Putin, who a few weeks ago was visiting Baku, to Recep Erdoğan's Turkey, with which the perception of a Turkish-Azeri brotherhood has been revived, up to the European Union which is aiming for a strategic partnership to bypass Russian gas.

“However, we must not make the mistake of identifying only two possible tracks:pro-Russia or pro-West – explained Laurence Broers -.In the case of Azerbaijan the situation is much more complex:First of all, the country has very close relations with Türkiye, which in turn has geopolitical relations withWest being a member Born, but its interests do not always coincide with those of the West;secondly Baku also has a very close relationship withIran:in fact, let's not forget that Azerbaijan is a country with a Muslim majority, albeit a secular one.This is why the contrast 'Russia/West' is inadequate if we really want to understand all the nuances of the Azerbaijani positions".

On the internal front, however, after the gradual consolidation of authoritarianism recorded in the last twenty years through restrictions repressive and ad hoc laws, lately the power has tried to safeguard itself by implementing a new crackdown which has led to the arrest of pacifists, researchers, students and journalists, persecuted in the general indifference of the international community on the eve of the Cop29.A disinterest that adds to thehypocrisy, denounced by many, of organize the most important global climate event in a country whose economy is based almost exclusively on fossil fuels.

The new wave of repression

The new crackdown in recent weeks is nothing more than the tail end of a broader wave of repression that began in 2014-2015 and flourished again in the summer of 2023, which also led to the arrest of Gubad Ibadoghlu, a well-known economist and activist, collaborator of the London School of Economics, particularly critical of the fossil fuel industry.Shortly before his arrest, Ibadoghlu - who is now under house arrest - had published an article criticizing Azerbaijan's policies regarding oil and gas.

In September last year ithe European Parliament he adopted an “urgent resolution” calling for the immediate and unconditional release of Ibadoghlu, stating that the finalization of a future EU-Azerbaijan partnership agreement should be conditional on the release of all political prisoners.According to the agency Turan, In fact, there are at least 300 political prisoners in Azerbaijani prisons.

However, despite the obvious human rights violations and civilians (Amnesty International even speaks of "vindictive acts of retaliation, intimidation and threats even against the families" of political prisoners), theWest winks at Baku to do business and bypass Russian gas.In the summer of 2022, the President of the European Commission Ursula Von der Leyen signed an agreement with the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to double gas supplies from Azerbaijan in a few years.

Meanwhile, there is a succession of cases in the news and among the most sensational ones is the recent arrest Of Bahruz Samadov, researcher and activist, accused of treason towards the State:he risks between 10 and 15 years in prison.According to Amnesty International, what got him into trouble were his articles critical of Baku's policy in Nagorno Karabakh and his links with some Armenian activists.

“Identifying the real causes of this new wave of repression is not easy – commented a LifeGate Sevinj Samadzade, Azerbaijani feminist and peace activist, PhD student at Ghent University in Belgium —.First of all, when a regime tries in every way to preserve its power, it reaches such a level of paranoia that everything is seen as a danger.Secondly, the growth of social networks has facilitated the spread of some ideas, and from there arises the need to cut off dialogue and contact between people as much as possible, in an attempt to have control over the information that is put into circulation.Thirdly, I don't rule out the possibility of 'cleaning up' in view of COP29 to convey the image of a stable country to the world."

What is surprising, first of all, is that the arrests of recent weeks have largely affected figures linked to the academic world and active in the community of "peace builders", or "promoters of peace” who seek to create a dialogue with Armenian neighbors:given the impossibility for both of them to cross the borders of the neighboring country, these Azeri and Armenian activists meet in third countries, such as Georgia or in some European states, in an attempt to find common points in complex divergent vision of history that led these two peoples to go to war.

Furthermore, unlike a few years ago, today Azerbaijani civil society is weaker and more fragmented, and for this reason it does not seem to represent a real danger for the establishment.These groups of "peace builders", then, do not meet for subversive purposes, as explained to LifeGate Cesare Figari Barberis, political expert of Caucasus, PhD student in International Relations at the Graduate Institute of Geneva:“Azeris and Armenians have very different narratives about the historical past and the war, and these activists come together simply to bring these two communities closer together, which lack any form of contact and dialogue:they share ideas for possible peace plans, they search compromises... It's nothing excessive or subversive, they can't even be defined as meetings with ambitious political goals, which is why the reaction that took place was perhaps a little disproportionate."

The hope, experts say, is that Cop29 can open the doors to a great amnesty, to free the political prisoners in view of the summit that will turn the world's spotlight on this country.