Climate, the EU Commission sets the bar for 2040:-90% of emissions.But the tractor protest makes the objectives for agriculture disappear

The new objective announced by EU Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra discounts the effect of the farmers' revolt.“Emissions cannot be reduced with a magic wand,” comments Greenpeace

On paper it's just a number.But it is precisely starting from that number that from now on every environmental and climate policy of the European Union could be calibrated.Today the Commission announced its proposal on the climate targets to be achieved in 2040.By that date, the EU executive proposes to reduce climate-changing emissions by 90% compared to 1990 levels.The long-term objective, however, remains the same:achieve zero net emissions – the so-called “carbon neutrality” – by 2050.“The fight against the climate crisis is a marathon, not a sprint,” said EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra during the plenary session of the European Parliament.The objective of the EU summits, he assured, "is for everyone to be able to cross the finish line".What Hoekstra announced today is only the recommendation made by the Commission based on the analyzes of the Climate Advisory Board.It will be up to the next EU executive, after the June elections, to formulate a real legislative proposal in harmony with Parliament and the Council.

The "tractor effect"

The announcement of the 2040 climate objectives comes at a very particular time for the European Union.First of all, there are elections around the corner, with a possible victory for the sovereign-conservative front which could translate into a downsizing of some of the most ambitious climate measures.But the factors also have an impact «tractor riots» which have spread throughout Europe since the beginning of the year.In the sights of farmers there are economic issues related to production costs and unfair competition from foreign producers, but also some European measures which are part of the Green Deal.On the occasion of the extraordinary European Council on 1 February, farmers invaded the streets of Brussels with sometimes violent demonstrations.And it is precisely in the wake of these protests that the European Commission has excluded agriculture from the sectors that will have to contribute to achieving the new climate objectives for 2040.In the first draft of the document, the EU executive asked the agricultural sector to cut emissions by 30% compared to 2015.In the current version, however, we simply recognize that agriculture "plays a role in the ecological transition" and contributes "to European food sovereignty".This is one of the most significant concessions made so far by the European Commission to the agricultural sector, which is currently responsible for around 11% of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union.This is in fact the second victory obtained by farmers during the day, if we consider this morning Ursula von der Leyen announced the withdraw of the contested proposal for an EU regulation on pesticides.

The next steps of the Green Deal

The 2040 objective proposed today by the European Commission is added to the other intermediate objective already set by Brussels.By 2030, the 27 EU countries have committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55%.To do this, the European Union has drawn up an unprecedented economic transformation plan, dubbed the Green Deal.The operational arm of this plan is the so-called "Fit for 55", the package of measures through which the EU aims to decarbonise all sectors of the economy (or almost).For the energy transition alone, the Commission estimates, approximately 660 billion in investments will be needed every year between 2031 and 2050, approximately 3.2% of the European Union's GDP.It is equally true, however, that inaction also has its costs.In the last five years alone, the economic damage linked to the effects of climate change already amounts to 170 billion euros.

The push for nuclear power

In an opinion published in recent weeks, the 15 experts of the European Union's Climate Advisory Board judged the objective of reducing emissions by 90% by 2040 not only technically feasible, but also necessary to meet the commitments made.To reach that goal, the path traced by the experts envisages a massive increase in renewable energy, the electrification of the most polluting industries and the progressive elimination of fossil fuels, to be partly replaced also with nuclear and hydrogen.This is also why, in conjunction with the recommendation on new climate objectives, the EU Commission announced the birth of an industrial alliance on small modular reactors.Brussels' objective is to "accelerate the implementation of the first projects by the beginning of 2030".The prediction is that, thanks also to atomic energy, the energy sector will reach full decarbonisation immediately after 2040.

Greenpeace's criticisms

Greenpeace activists are turning up their noses at the European Commission's announcement.According to the environmentalist association, the strategy outlined by the EU executive suffers from "dubious accounting" and involves the reduction of emissions through the use of "magic wands".In Greenpeace's sights there is above all the failure to include a definitive date by which the EU undertakes to definitively abandon fossil fuels, but also the openness to some controversial technologies such as carbon capture and storage systems (CCS) , which to date are still very expensive and not very effective.

Cover photo:EPA/Ronald Wittek | EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra