The "transition away" from fossil fuels, renewables, the silence on methane:what the historic agreement signed at COP28 in Dubai says, point by point

The United Nations climate summit ended a day late.An agreement has been reached for the first time on the need to abandon fossil fuels

There are those who define it as a "historic agreement", those who speak of an "acceptable compromise" and those who do not hide a certain degree of disappointment.The fact is that the agreement finally arrived:today, Wednesday 13 December, the 198 delegates of COP28 in Dubai approved the Global Stocktake, the final balance of the United Nations summit which includes commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and avoid the worst consequences of climate change.The approval of the document occurred one day later than the expected conclusion of the conference and was welcomed with long applause from the plenary.«We have the foundations for transformation – rejoiced Sultan Al Jaber, the (hotly contested) president of Cop28 -.Future generations will thank you, they will not know each of you but they will be grateful for your decision."But what does the final document approved in Dubai include?Here are some of the highlights.

The compromise on abandoning fossil fuels

For the first time, all the countries of the world have put on paper the need to abandon fossil fuels, the main causes of global warming, once and for all.To be able to include this point in the final text it was necessary to mediate between different nuances of language.The most ambitious group of countries, led by the European Union, pushed for the "phase-out", i.e. the gradual elimination of all fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas).The resistance was mainly a group made up of five states - Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait - who instead opted for the "phase-down", i.e. a gradual reduction.In the end, neither of these two expressions ended up in the final COP28 agreement.The formula that has managed to get everyone to agree is "transition away", that is, "transition away" from fossil fuels.What weakens the agreement, if anything, is a series of small lexical details.One above all:the document «invites» countries to leave behind the use of fossil fuels.A weak verb, but perhaps the only one capable of making everyone agree.

The push for renewables

The final text approved by Cop28 contains another important achievement:the reference to the need to triple the capacity of renewable sources in the world and double energy efficiency by 2030.This promise had in some ways also been anticipated byencounter between the American president Joe Biden and the Chinese one Xi Jinping, which took place in recent weeks in San Francisco.In paragraph 30 of Global Stocktake it is underlined that the cost of low-emission technologies - in particular solar and wind - has dropped significantly in recent years, thanks to investments and the creation of economies of scale.Now the objective is to accelerate the installation of new plants for the production of clean energy, so as to free ourselves from fossil fuels as quickly as possible.

The Loss&Damage fund

The final document approved at COP28 also contains a step forward on Loss&Damage, the fund to compensate for the losses and damages suffered by the countries that contribute least to global warming but which suffer the worst consequences.The 198 delegates had already reached an agreement on this point on the very first day of the Dubai summit.The Global Stocktake estimates that «the financial needs for the adaptation of developing countries are estimated at 215-387 billion dollars per year until 2030 and that it is necessary to invest approximately 4.3 trillion dollars per year in clean energy until 2030, then increasing to $5 trillion per year until 2050."The invitation, addressed to the most developed countries, is to continue to contribute to the fund in the years to come, so as not to leave anyone behind.

No agreement on methane

The weakest item of the Dubai agreement certainly concerns the reduction of methane emissions, a climate-changing gas that remains in the atmosphere for less time but has a warming potential almost thirty times higher than carbon dioxide.The word "methane" appears only once in the 21 pages of the Global Stocktake and the indication is very generic.In fact, the text limits itself to inviting countries to "accelerate and significantly reduce" emissions by 2030.

Nuclear and carbon capture

Among the innovations included in the final text of COP28 is the first explicit reference to nuclear energy and carbon capture systems among zero or low emission technologies.The mention of atomic energy is not at all accidental and reflects a renewed interest that has been recorded for years in various parts of the world, Including Italy.However, the capture and storage of CO2 deserves a separate discussion, a very controversial technology in the very early stages of development, which many companies in the Oil & Gas sector are pushing for but which to date still remains ineffective, not widespread and above all extremely expensive. .

Reactions from the world

The COP28 agreement was welcomed with great enthusiasm in Europe, with Ursula von der Leyen which speaks of a "historic" and "Made in Europe" pact, which marks "the beginning of the post-fossil era".EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra also shares the same opinion, commenting warmly:«Humanity has spent 30 years getting to the beginning of the end of fossil fuels.We have built a bridge and overcome the divisions."Satisfaction also from Italy, with the minister Gilberto Pichetto which speaks of a "balanced and acceptable compromise for this historical phase".The US special envoy for climate, John Kerry, describes the COP28 agreement as "a reason to be optimistic", while China simply expresses satisfaction with the "steps forward".A few hours after the agreement, he is the UN secretary general António Guterres to issue a warning for the future, especially in view of Cop29 in Baku, in Azerbaijan:«To those who opposed a clear reference to the phasing out of fossil fuels during COP28 – writes Guterres on X – I want to say this:Like it or not, phasing out fossil fuels is inevitable.Let's hope it doesn't arrive too late."

Cover photo:EPA/Martin Divisek | The plenary of delegates at COP28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (12 December 2023)