Emilia-Romagna, what climate change has to do with floods and why the "deniers" are wrong

There are those who misrepresent the words of geologist Mario Tozzi to deny the role of climate change.But…

Extreme weather events are increasingly frequent.And, as has already happened on other occasions, along with the devastation they bring comes those who argue that their collapse is a fortuitous event, unrelated to climate change.At the center of these theories, in this case, are the recent ones floods which hit Romagna, taking the lives of 5 people.Writes the collaborator of The Truth Fabio Dragoni:«What you call #ClimateChange is simple hydrogeological instability.Otherwise you would have to conclude that this only exists in Italy.And even proving it to you with Tozzi's data makes me laugh too much.But you don't understand shit."To support his thesis, Dragoni publishes an excerpt from a item in which the Cnr geologist Mario Tozzi intervenes.This is what you can read:

Making use of these declarations, Dragoni argues that climate change cannot be one of the causes of hydrogeological instability, given that if this were the case, the phenomenon would be localized "only" in Italy given that it is in our country - comments Tozzi in the article - that the vast majority of landslides occur.First of all, it should be noted that the article cited by Dragoni was published in October 2020 after the floods in Piedmont.In any case, Tozzi himself says:«If Italy cries deaths and devastation every time it rains more than normal – and it will happen more and more often as a result of climate change – it is not the fault of an adverse fate but of the constructive bulimia which over the years has sacrificed increasingly larger pieces of territory".In short, according to the geologist, the disastrous effects can be attributed to soil consumption and neglect, but the frequency of extreme meteorological events with enormous quantities of rain falling increases in step with the earth's temperature.

How much rain fell in Emilia-Romagna?

And it is undeniable that the amount of rain that fell in Emilia-Romagna in the month of May was exceptional.As analyzed by the Meteo Expert research center and published in the specialized newspaper Climate icon, the region received in 17 days the rain that normally falls in at least six months.We are talking about 3-400 millimeters in most areas, with peaks reaching 500 millimeters in some areas.For comparison, Faenza records an average annual rainfall of 760 millimetres, in Pesaro 712 millimetres.In notoriously rainy London it is 690 millimetres.This amount of water fell during two major weather events.The second, that of 16 and 17 May, arrived a few days after the first of 2 and 3 May, when several areas had already gone under water.On that occasion, the soil made impervious by the drought of recent months had facilitated the stagnation of precipitation which were absorbed more slowly than normal.Once it penetrated, the water saturated the ground, which was unable to soak up the rain that subsequently fell.

The role of the wind and the flooding of rivers

Added to this were the anti-clockwise rotation winds over Italy.Specifically, those coming from the South-East pushed the water of the Adriatic Sea towards the north, causing its level to rise in a similar way to what happens when the phenomenon of high water occurs in Venice.The force of the sea prevented the correct flow of the rivers at the mouth, which therefore overflowed more easily than what normally happens.

Tozzi's denial

In an article published on May 17 on The Press, Tozzi himself denies the false opinion that Dragoni creates by decontextualizing his words.«These are no longer unexpected phenomena» – writes the geologist – «we have now understood it, these are events attributable to the actions of the sapiens, in particular those production activities based on combustion which have spewed so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that allow us to exceed 420 ppm (parts per million), while until the 1950s they had never exceeded 300 ppm.The "flash floods" (a term perhaps not granted, but very effective) are the result of the extreme climate change that characterizes current climate change."Contacted by Open, the geologist was lapidary towards those who misrepresent his words:«I don't need to contextualize.These are problems for those who interpret badly."

The increase in floods in the last 10 years

Looking at the data, we can see how in the last 10 years the number of floods from intense rainfall has increased greatly.According to data collected in Legambiente's City Climate report, there were 10 in 2012, 27 in 2013 and never more until 2017.The situation has changed since 2018 when there were 73, then following a growing trend until 105 in 2022.In 2023 it reached 16.It should be noted that the greatest number of floods occurred in the hottest years ever.It may be a coincidence, but it is certain that climate change is driving an increase in extreme events.This is certified by the IPCC report, the most important document on the subject Open he dedicated an in-depth analysis.The report analyzes the correlation between the quantity of water that falls on the wettest day of the year and the increase in temperature.As shown in the following graph, for every tenth of a degree increase in the earth's temperature, there corresponds to an increase in the strength of precipitation.

Hydrogeological instability

However, this does not mean that climate change is the only cause of the damage seen in Emilia Romagna.The force and violence of rainfall increases, but at the root of the problems there is also the neglect of the territory, the lack of infrastructure maintenance, the excessive overbuilding and planning of public and private works.In addition to Tozzi, the geologists of the region also denounced it through their president Paride Antolini.The important thing, however, is to remember that this is what generated the effects of the extreme weather on the area.But there is little doubt about what is behind the increase in the frequency of events such as those that brought Emilia Romagna to its knees.