The special relationship between Azerbaijan and Italy smells of gas

The leader of Azerbaijan, which hosts COP29 in November, was welcomed in Italy as a strategic partner.The agreements on gas are crucial.But there has been no shortage of criticism from activists for the dictatorial line he continues to pursue.

• Azerbaijan has been defined as a strategic partner by Italy and the EU:its role in the gas game to replace Russian supplies is crucial.
• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev also spoke at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio (6-8 September 2024), accused by human rights defenders of having intensified the repressive regime in his country.
• From Cernobbio, Aliyev has announced new negotiations to send Azeri gas to at least three other European states and that it has received requests not to interrupt the transit of gas through Ukraine, which is expected to stop in December.

A strategic partnership with “regular political contacts” and “multi-sector cooperation”.The honeymoon between Italy and Azerbaijan took place in Cernobbio, at the fiftieth edition of the Ambrosetti Forum which, from 6 to 8 September, brought together leaders and important figures from world politics and economics to discuss the challenges of the contemporary world.Among the most anticipated guests, in addition to the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and to the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán, the leader of the state that will host the event in November was also there Cop29, the United Nations conference on climate change:the president ofAzerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, in Italy for the third time since 2020.

After meeting the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella and the Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, from the Cernobbio stage Aliyev reiterated the "strategic nature" of the ties with Italy, then announcing the existence of new negotiations to send Azerbaijani gas to at least three other European countries.

But while Europe does business with Baku in the hope of further limiting supplies of Russian gas (Already got out drastically:between 2021 and 2023 the import from pipeline And liquefied natural gas went from 45 to 15 percent), the activists do not hide their indignation at those handshakes with the leader of a country where civil rights and freedom of expression are severely limited and where there are numerous cases of repression, persecution and torture, as reported in reports 2024 by Human rights watch.

THE'Azerbaijan it is in fact defined as a state authoritarian, where freedom of information and civil rights are extremely limited, and is considered one of the most corrupt countries in the world, ranked 154th out of 180 in Corruption perceptions index drawn up by Transparency International in 2023.In recent months, just on the eve of the Cop29, there were new cases of arrests and detentions of activists, journalists and academics who had expressed critical positions towards the government.But this scenario went practically unnoticed at the Cernobbio Forum.

Cooperation between Azerbaijan and Italy

In front of the audience in Cernobbio, Aliyev opened his speech by talking about the bond that unites Baku and Rome.“Italy is Azerbaijan's first partner in the world.Last year our trade turnover almost reached 16 billion dollars and we see growth potential not only in the energy sector, but also in other sectors", said the Azerbaijani president, probably referring not only to the talks started with the big Italian energy groups, but also to academic cooperation between university of Bologna, Turin, Milan, Luiss and Sapienza and the Ada University of Azerbaijan.

We are Baku's first trading partner

Second Foreign market info, in the first seven months of 2023 almost 45 percent of Azerbaijani exports were destined for Italy, which confirmed itself as the number one trading partner, even surpassing Turkey and Greece.On the import front, however, our country ranked ninth among Azerbaijan's suppliers with a turnover of 198 million euros.

Azerbaijan is Italy's largest oil supplier

“Azerbaijan is the first supplier of oil to Italy and the second in terms of gas — ha said Ilham Aliyev —.The network of 3,500 kilometers of gas pipelines from Azerbaijan to Italy, the so-called southern gas corridor, today guarantees energy security to ten countries, seven of which are members of the European Union.This is probably why the European Commission calls Azerbaijan a pan-European gas supplier and a reliable partner.And we are in the process of negotiating with at least three other European countries."

The age-old question of gas

In summer 2022, the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen had in fact signed a memorandum of understanding to increase gas supplies from Azerbaijan, bringing them from 8 to 20 billion cubic meters per year by 2027.An agreement that had been strongly criticized by human rights groups.At the time Philippe Dam, acting EU director of Human Rights Watch, said that Baku uses oil and gas “to silence the EU on fundamental rights issues” and that “the EU should not say that a country is trustworthy when it limits civil society activities and represses political dissent”.

But with Kiev's imminent closing of the taps, Brussels bites the bullet and makes a virtue of necessity.In fact, Ukraine already has announced which will not renew the five-year transit contract with the Russian giant at the end of the year Gazprom.And even if Europe is still to a certain extent dependent on Moscow's gas, Russian flows - which have increased compared to last year - will most likely be suspended in December.

Also thanks to a price discount to regain market share in the Old Continent, in July 2024 from Russia 2.52 billion cubic meters of gas arrived in Europe via pipeline, that is to say 11 percent more than in the same period in 2023.Italy, together with Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, is among the main buyers of Russian gas.And if the interruption of Russian flows represents a stomach ache to be resolved, from the Cernobbio stage Azerbaijani President Aliyev revealed that he had been "contacted by Russia, Ukraine and European institutions to facilitate the continuation of gas transit through Ukraine".

And then the mention of Cop29, the event where the future of climate policies will be decided which this year will be held in the Caucasus petrostate, whose overall exports are made up of 90 percent oil and gas:“The climate issue divides countries and peoples – said Aliyev -.There are mutual claims and accusations about who is most responsible for damaging the planet.However, I believe that it is possible to build bridges between the South and the North of the world."

The disagreements with the West on Nagorno Karabakh

Aliyev then commented on the decision to ban entry into Azerbaijan to 76 deputies of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, among which there are also five Italian parliamentarians (Piero Fassino, Francesco Verducci, Andrea Orlando, Sandra Zampa and Aurora Floridia), guilty of having voted against the ratification of the credentials of the Azerbaijani delegation due to "concerns about the country's ability to conduct free and fair elections and respect human rights", as well as "the very serious humanitarian consequences" linked to the situation in Nagorno Karabakh, the territory disputed with theArmenia and returned last year to Azerbaijani control, where according to the Armenians a real attack was carried out ethnic cleansing. 

For Aliyev, that vote crossed a red line.“Last year we fully restored our territorial sovereignty.We haven't done anything different than what the government is trying to do.Ukraine.These are sanctions imposed only because we have restored our sovereignty.Those who voted against ratification do not want to see us in the Council of Europe.So, our decision was appropriate."

Second Laurence Broers, expert and director of the Caucasus program of the independent peacebuilding organization Conciliation Resources, Western states actually "do not have much influence on civil rights issues, nor do they want to use it, because there are transversal strategic interests."

“Azerbaijan – commented Broers a LifeGate — knows that it has alternatives and that it can do without Western partners:the country in fact it is autonomous both on a strategic and structural level thanks to revenues from gas and oil.Furthermore, Baku does not perceive the West as a unified interlocutor:there are states that have different interests.Every country, whether democratic or authoritarian, has challenges to face and problems to solve.Azerbaijan, for its part, in addition to having to resolve the peace agreement with Armenia, must address the issue of energy transition.But an effective transition towards peace or towardsgreen economy it necessarily requires the participation of society, because changes start from within.And this is precisely the great dilemma that Azerbaijan finds itself facing today."