What can we expect on the climate after Trump's victory

Renewables, oil, gas, Paris Agreement.What will change in the climate battle with President Donald Trump.

That the action on the climate it would probably not be at the center of the programs of the 47th president of the United States, this was understood even before the result of the elections which marked the return of the climate skeptic to the White House Donald Trump.During the election campaign, the issue of global warming was substantially absent from the debate between the American billionaire and the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.In fact, the two limited themselves to talking about issues related to energy policies, with Trump saying he wants to increase hydrocarbon production.Its rival had aligned itself with the promise to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 made by the administration of Joe Biden.But she too, during the televised face-to-face meeting, had spoken very vaguely about "diversified energy sources", without adding anything else.

The United States will once again speak with two opposing voices, but a piece of America will continue the battle on the climate

The climate action, already insufficient, of the United States, will therefore certainly be more complicated in the next four years.The hope is that, as has already happened during his first term, there may be a part of America who will continue, despite everything, to keep the bar straight.In this sense, in a statement following the triumph of the Republican candidate, the World Resources Institute explained that “there is no denying that another Trump presidency will stall national efforts to address the climate crisis and protect the environment, but most state, local, and private sector leaders of the United States are committed to moving forward.And you can count on many who confirm that they will not turn their backs on climate and nature objectives."Consequently, according to the WRI, “Donald Trump's return to the White House will not be equivalent to the death of transition towards clean energy which has rapidly accelerated over the last four years."

Laurence Tubiana, managing director of European climate foundation, is of the same opinion:“The result of the American elections is a setback for global climate action, but the Paris Agreement has proven itself resilient and stronger than the policies of each individual country.Today's context is very different from that of 2016.There is a fort economic momentum behind the global transition.Responding to the demands of their citizens, cities and states across the United States are taking bold action.”And those who want to continue to act on the climate "represent 65 percent of the population and the 68 percent of gross domestic product”.

The political burden on international negotiations will not be avoidable

The fact remains that the remaining 32 percent of the US economy is necessary, especially considering that what has been done so far is largely insufficient to achieve the climate objectives set by the international community.In this sense, starting from the international negotiations that will be held in Baku in the coming days as part of the twenty-ninth United Nations World Climate Conference (Cop29), the political weight of Trump's return will inevitably be felt.And starting from the next one, the Cop30 which will be hosted by Brazil, the delegates will be chosen directly by the new administration in Washington.We will therefore once again witness two Americas that will present themselves at these crucial events:the official, government one, climate sceptic, and the one that in the years of Trump's first mandate gathered under the banner of “We are still in” (“We are still inside”, in Italian).

The reference was to disruptive choice that the former and future president of the United States made on June 1, 2017, announcing the start of the procedure exit from the Paris Agreement on the climate.A part of the US, at the time, declared that it had nevertheless remained "inside":aligned with the objectives of the document, i.e. trying to limit the growth of the average global temperature to a maximum of 2 degrees centigrade, compared to pre-industrial levels, and remaining as close as possible to the 1.5 degrees.

“We drill everywhere”:Trump's Energy Program

Of course, in any case it will be necessary to verify with what "strength" Trump will decide to address energy policies, and consequently climate policies.Because even if the world is moving in the direction of transition more markedly than eight years ago, the American billionaire could don't listen to anyone (which doesn't happen to him very often).The Republican leader he promised during the campaign Of "drill everywhere”, shouting “Drill, baby, drill!”.“We have more liquid gold available than any other nation in the world,” he said, referring to the oil fields present in the United States.“More than Saudi Arabia or Russia,” he added.

Trump on the other hand, he is committed clearly to “cancel all unspent funds” within the scope of great transition plan launched by Biden in 2022 (which takes the name of Inflation reduction act and which in reality does not only concern the climate).This law made it possible to inject liquidity into the clean energy, thanks above all to a tax credit mechanism that has mobilized billions of dollars.In the American tycoon's intentions, what is still available should now be used to relaunch oil and gas above all.

Money for oil and stop the moratorium on new gas terminals

It is no coincidence that another promise made during the electoral campaign is that of cancel the moratorium on the construction of new terminals for the export of liquid natural gas.The question relating to is more complex electric cars:it will be necessary to verify on this point what the weight of will be Elon Musk, who as is known has spent a lot in favor of Trump and could ask for something in return for his companies, including Tesla.

Another theme of particular importance for the climate is that relating to global competition.During his first term, Trump had imposed customs duties, for example, on imports of solar panels coming from Asia.Furthermore, already in the past the China explained that if the United States stopped meeting certain environmental and climate standards in their production, even in the Asian nation they would be forced, if not to do the same, at least to streamline the demands imposed on local companies.Because otherwise Chinese costs would rise too much and a crisis would arise unfair competition.Considering that the United States and China, together, are worth approximately 45 percent of global CO2 emissions, it is clear that their disengagement (or even just decreased commitment) is very difficult for the rest of the world to compensate for.

Christiana Figueres:“Clean energy will still remain successful”

“The actions of the United States regarding climate changes nationally and globally will determine how Africa, a continent that is the less responsible for the climate crisis but which suffers most from the impacts of the climate, will follow its own development path", he admitted in this sense Raila Odinga, former prime minister of Kenya and candidate for presidency of the African Union Commission.

For this, it will be necessary for those who care about the climate issue multiply your efforts:“We will continue to implement our climate laws and work with international partners at all levels of government, civil society and the private sector for rapid and full implementation of the Paris Agreement,” he commented Jennifer Morgan, State Secretary and Special Envoy for International Climate Action of Germany.“Staying with oil and gas is the same as falling behind in a rapidly changing world.Clean energy technologies will continue to compete with fossil fuels, not only because they are healthier, faster, cleaner and more abundant, but because they undermine them where they are weakest:their unsolvable volatility and inefficiency,” he noted Christiana Figueres, who led the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) from 2010 to 2016.

On the other hand, “the disengagement of US domestic action under the Trump administration will harm efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.The prospects of keeping the goal open will ultimately depend on the level of action taken by all other countries in the coming years and also on what the United States does after the end of the Trump presidency,” he explained Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics and former member of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Ipcc).

Climate action around the world is already insufficient

The world, today, it is actually very far away from a trajectory that can allow you to hit the 1.5 degree objective.The promises made by governments, according to calculations by the United Nations Environment Program (Unep), even if they were fully respected, they will lead to an increase in the average global temperature of at least 2.6 degrees (3.1 if we remained on current trends).AND 2024 will most likely be the first calendar year in which we exceeded the 1.5 degree threshold itself.A truly titanic effort will therefore be needed - even greater after Trump's election - to save the Earth's climate and guarantee a peaceful future for the next generations.