EU elections, from the "green wave" of 2019 to the defeat of 2024:Does the decline of the Greens put the Green Deal at risk?

Disappointing result for the ecological parties, who lose 19 MEPs and will now do everything to try to enter the majority and save climate policies

In the list of losers of European elections the name of Greens comes immediately after that of the Renew liberals.In the last legislature, the environmental parties of the 27 EU countries could count on a delegation of 71 MEPs.For the next five years, they will have to make do with just 53.The reasons for this decline are to be found above all in the most populous country in the European Union - Germany - where i Grünen they lost consensus and the far right established itself as the second party.However, there are some states that are exceptions, starting with Italy, with the Green-Left Alliance which proved to be the real surprise of the European elections.In the 2019 electoral round, the Italian Greens presented themselves alone without even managing to overcome the threshold.The political creature they gave birth to Nicola Fratoianni And Angelo Bonelli instead it managed to obtain 6.7% of the vote and elect three MEPs.

The "green wave" of 2019:a distant memory

The record level of support obtained by the Greens in the 2019 European elections was also a result of the «green wave», the wave of protests for the environment and the climate that brought millions of young people to the streets around the world.In some countries, this mobilization led to an exploit of ecological parties.In France, the Greens won 13% of the vote and 12 MEPs.The result was even more sensational in Germany:the Grünen they established themselves as the second most voted party in the country (with 20.5%) and sent a maxi-delegation of 25 MEPs to Brussels and Strasbourg.In Italy, there was no trace of all this.Yet, in the last five years the Greens have still been able to count on three Italian members who arrived "on loan" from other parties.They are Ignazio Corrao, Rosa D'Amato and Piernicola Pedicini, all elected with the 5 Star Movement and then moved to the Green group.

The result of the Greens, country by country

The comparison between 2019 and 2024 is merciless.The Greens lost 18 MEPs along the way, including nine from the German delegation and seven from the French one.In the case of Germany, the disappointing result obtained by the Greens is coupled with the decline in consensus which has also overwhelmed the other two parties of the government coalition which supports Olaf Scholz:the socialists of the SPD (13.9%, the lowest figure ever in the European elections) and the liberals of the FDP (5.2%).«There is no single explanation for the decline of the Greens in Europe», explains a Open Nils Redeker, deputy director of the Jacques Delors Center.The collapse of ecologists in Germany, for example, "testifies to the significant impact that domestic policies have on the national results of European elections". There are some countries, Redeker points out, which show a reversal of trend compared to what happened in France and Germany.This is the case of Sweden and Denmark, where the Greens have seen their consensus grow and have elected three MEPs each.In the Netherlands, the red-green coalition led by Frans Timmermans, former European commissioner and "political father" of Green Deal, has established itself as the leading party at national level, electing five MEPs from the socialist ranks and four from the Greens.Among the EU countries where the Greens performed better than expected there are also Latvia (one MEP elected), Croatia (1), Slovenia (1) and Lithuania (2).

From the squares to the control rooms

In the last five years of the European Commission at the helm Ursula von der Leyen, the Greens remained outside the majority but influenced - quite a bit - the political action of the EU executive.On many provisions of the Green Deal, the package of European measures in favor of the environment and the climate, environmentalist MEPs played a leading role and often voted together with the People's Party, Socialists and Liberals.At the same time, the transition from street demonstrations to palace politics has brought with it a decline in support, especially after the farmers' protests which at the beginning of 2024 shook Europe by pointing the finger at the green policies approved in recent years.

In recent months, the European elections have often been described as a referendum on the EU's environmental and climate policies.Polls, however, have revealed that perhaps things weren't really that way after all.«The results show that climate policy was not a top priority for voters.And that's no surprise.With the Russian attack on Ukraine, the cost of living crisis and a sluggish economic outlook, other issues have occupied the forefront of voters' minds," notes Center Vice President Jacques Delors.However, the fact remains that the performance of the Green parties was anything but positive, as admitted by Bas Eickhout himself, Spitzenkandidat of the European Greens.“We are not happy with the number of seats we have obtained,” commented the Dutch MEP.Yet, despite the disappointing result, the Greens appear to have no intention of being left out of the game in the next legislature.«Now we need to create a stable majority at the center of the European Parliament and, in our opinion, it will also have to look to the Greens.We are ready to take on this responsibility", said Eickhout, revealing that he had already started dialogue with outgoing president von der Leyen.

The fate (in the balance) of the Green Deal

The outcome of the negotiations that will begin in these days will determine not only the composition of the next majority in the European Parliament but also the future of the Green Deal.Socialists and Liberals have proudly claimed the green policies of the last five years and said they are ready to continue on the path traced.In the last months of the election campaign, however, the Popolari showed signs of intolerance towards some measures, suggesting that the next legislature could have a different approach to climate policies.According to Nils Redeker, however, it is unlikely that there will be a real reversal of direction.«To secure re-election, Ursula von der Leyen will need the support of the Social Democrats and possibly the Greens.This significantly limits its ability to revoke existing Green Deal legislation,” explains the Center's deputy director Jacques Delors.

Linda Kalcher, director of the pan-European think tank Strategic Perspectives, is also of the same opinion.«If the EPP – explains the expert – wants a comfortable and reliable coalition for the next five years to strengthen industrial competitiveness and economic security, the Greens remain the best choice.It may not happen in the name of climate ambition, but the direction is clear."In short, an actual revocation of the Green Deal is not on the horizon, if only because it is a legislative package supported by all the main European political groups, excluding the right.What we might be seeing, if anything, is an attempt to dilute some policies during the implementation phase.Maybe starting with some of the most contested dossiers, such as the directive on the energy efficiency of buildings or the ban on polluting cars from 2035.Everything depends on the direction that Ursula von der Leyen's EPP will choose to take.With the difference that, compared to five years ago, the Greens present themselves at the negotiating table with less strength and less possibility of influencing the final choices.

On the cover:Robert Habeck, German Economy Minister, and Annalena Baerbock, Foreign Minister, during a Green election event in Germany (EPA/Filip Singer)