Floods in Tuscany, what is the role of climate change?The climatologist Giacomin:«The heat of October strengthened the disturbances» – The Interview

The climatologist, meteorologist and president of the Italian Climate Network association comments on the meteorological situation due to storm Ciaràn

«155 millimeters of rain fell in a few hours, an event that from what we know had not happened for at least two centuries».So the mayor of Prato Matteo Biffoni has defined the meteorological situation due to Ciaran storm, which affected a large part of Italy and contributed to the flooding of numerous waterways.The more serious consequences have been seen in Tuscany, of an event described as rare, exceptional, whose effects - floods, floods, flooded houses and shops, uprooted trees, compromised infrastructures and roads covered in mud - however, seem to recur every spring and every autumn in various areas of the country:a year ago it was the Marche, six months ago it was Emilia Romagna, to name just the most recent.While the damage is still being counted, the secretary of the Democratic Party Elly Schlein accuses the prime minister Giorgia Meloni to deny the climate emergency, while the head of government he replies, saying that the dem leader's act is nothing more than exploitation.To understand how storm Ciaràn was born, what the connection is with climate change and how it could cause so much damage, including the death of at least six people, Open asked some questions to meteorologist climatologist and president of the Italian Climate Network association, Serena Giacomin.

In Tuscany, around 150 mm of rain fell in a few hours.The mayor of Prato spoke of an event that occurs every 200 years.Is he right?

«It is certainly not so usual to observe a storm as intense as Ciaràn in our latitudes.I would say that it is not part of the climatic "normality" of our territory.This is a phenomenon that was extremely intense here in Italy, but especially on the western coast of the European continent where it had hurricane intensity, even though its atmospheric structure was not so.Ciaran is in fact an extratropical storm, with winds of up to 200 km/h.The rains then were very abundant.In many areas we exceeded 100 mm of rain in a short time.A significant event, especially if we consider that this is not the first disturbance that has hit Italian territory in recent days.There was the previous one, for example, which he provoked the flooding of the Seveso in Milan.Part of our territory was therefore already fragile."

And the civil protection alerts had foreseen it, even if according to the mayor of Prato they were too low.Especially the orange one for hydraulic risk

«There is another element.Many do not know the true meaning of the alerts, which are not weather alerts - i.e. solely linked to the danger of atmospheric phenomena - but forecasts of the impact on the territory and on people, i.e. risk analyses.Let's take an example:in the days following the flood in Emilia Romagna last May, the alert remained red until the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk at least partially receded, even when the sun was shining.We must therefore think on two levels:the observation and analysis of the disturbance in transit (which determines the danger) and the evaluation of its effects on the territory and citizens.The parameters are defined as follows:exposure and vulnerability.The equation that defines the extent of the alert, therefore, is Risk = Danger

What role has climate change played in the floods of recent days?

«Concerning the influence of global warming on the power of the storm, attribution studies must be carried out which are not yet ready.What we know is that disturbances are made more violent by heat in the atmosphere and seas.And in Italy we come from an October that exceeded the most recent climate averages (1991-2020) by about three degrees.Warmer air and sea mean more fuel for passing disturbances, which therefore acquire greater intensity.The disturbance encountered a warm Mediterranean, but not only that, the North Atlantic - where Ciaràn formed - also showed important anomalies.Crossing the ocean he arrived in Europe full of energy.For the next few months it will be specially observed El Niño now active in the equatorial Pacific.It is a meteorological-climatic event that substantially warms the oceans and atmosphere and therefore has the ability to aggravate the extremes of events."

What do you think of the clash between Giorgia Meloni and Elly Schlein?The dem secretary claims that the government denies the emergency.And Meloni accuses Schlein of exploiting natural disasters

«Certainly when we find ourselves in an emergency everyone works to get out of it.But, let's face it, prevention and adaptation have never been at the top of the government's priorities:neither this nor the previous ones.We need a citizenry that is aware and capable of self-protection thanks to an increased culture of risk, but here we need a political stance and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions.We are incredibly late on the Climate Change Adaptation Plan, for example, which dates back to 2015 and is aimed precisely at national planning to reduce and contain the vulnerabilities of the territory but it has not yet been integrated, there are no procedures or the implementation of a strategy with dedicated funds to be able to implement it.I read this as a lack of attention and lack of determination to make the territory safer and less fragile.And it's a problem that we've been dragging on for years.We have knowledge and data but we lack the will. Elly Schlein says that Melons denies the climate emergency, the prime minister has spoken several times about the crisis we find ourselves in.But without actions only words remain.And among these gaps in action we still find too much space in the debate for anti-scientific and denialist doubts."