What has worked so far against climate change

The weekly round-up on the climate crisis and data on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

Fuel taxes, building incentives, energy efficiency regulations.We often hear experts, politicians, representatives of the industrial sector and citizens discussing which political and economic solutions are most advantageous and effective in combating global warming and in applying the so-called ecological transition.

An action that has become almost an imperative since, almost 35 years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its first report in which it found that human activities were causing a substantial increase in carbon dioxide concentrations ( CO₂) and other gases in the atmosphere, resulting in warming of the planet's temperatures.Since then there have been many United Nations Climate Conferences, governments and public awareness of the effects of the climate crisis and the need for decisive action has increased, and countries around the world have introduced a series of policies to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, although we are far from the goal of reducing emissions in such a way as to keep global warming below 2°C.

Which interventions really worked?This question is at the heart of a important new work by a group of German researchers, led by Annika Stechemesser of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who analyzed 1,500 climate policies implemented in 41 countries over the past two decades and found that only a few dozen were truly effective.

The researchers analyzed eight types of policy interventions in four areas:construction, electricity, industry and transport:

• Pricing policies, such as carbon taxes and permits that can be bought and sold
• Regulations, such as bans, building codes, and energy efficiency standards
• Application or elimination of subsidies, such as government incentives for property owners to install rooftop solar systems or the elimination of tax breaks for the fossil fuel industry.

Of the 1,500 policies analyzed, the researchers identified 63 cases where the measures adopted led to a significant reduction in emissions, between 0.6 and 1.8 billion metric tons of CO₂.The most relevant aspect of the study is that the most effective measures are those that combined different types of intervention.To give an example, in the transition to the electrification of the transport system, a tax on fossil fuels, combined with subsidies to develop a network of charging stations for electric vehicles, will be more effective than adopting just one type of intervention.

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The study also found that effective policy mixes vary across sectors.In the economies of richer countries, for example, taxation has been a particularly effective policy in sectors dominated by profit-oriented companies, such as electricity and industry.While a mix of incentives and regulations worked best in the construction and transportation sectors.In developing countries, where regulations to limit pollution and investment in green technologies might be more suitable, however, price interventions have not led to large emissions reductions in the electricity sector.

For example, the United Kingdom recorded a 19% drop in emissions from the electricity sector between 2012 and 2018 after the European Union introduced a carbon price for energy producers.Over the same period, the UK has implemented a number of other measures, including tougher standards for air pollution, incentives for building solar and wind farms, and a plan to phase out coal power plants.Similarly, China reduced its industrial emissions by 20% from 2013 to 2019 through a pilot emissions trading program, but also by reducing fossil fuel subsidies and strengthening financing for energy efficiency investments.

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“We don't yet have the definitive solution that works on its own,” explains Felix Pretis, co-author of the study and professor of economics at the University of Victoria in British Columbia, Canada.Carbon pricing was “a notable exception” because it led to large emissions cuts on its own – and it worked particularly well for emissions from industry and electricity.However, Pretis continues, “it works even better if it is integrated and packaged as a mix of policies”.

The case of carbon pricing is emblematic, as Mattia Marasti always wrote above Blue suitcase:

Policies like the carbon tax represent a necessary condition to combat the climate crisis, but it is necessary to take into account aspects such as equity and the distribution of resources, to avoid that the less well-off and average segments of the population that they already carry on their shoulders today pay the price the weight of extreme events.

Although this is the largest study done so far, due to the breadth of the amount of data examined and some parameters imposed by the researchers, some specific policies that could be effective have gone unnoticed.And, therefore, there could be more effective policies than the 63 indicated.For example, there is no data yet to demonstrate emissions reductions in agriculture and land use.

Furthermore, the study only looked at short-term effects and in one specific country, observes Jessika Trancik, professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.“But in climate change mitigation, we are interested in global-scale effects and reducing emissions to net zero, regardless of where emissions are reduced,” explains Trancik.“So the fact that in 63 cases a significant short-term impact was detected where the policies were adopted does not mean that other policies were not effective.”

There are two main ways in which climate policy can be effective.The first is to reduce emissions at a certain place and time.The second is to develop technology that allows emissions to be reduced in the future, perhaps in more places, such as low-cost solar panels resulting from technological advances.Reducing emissions and developing new technologies can create a positive feedback loop that the study may not be able to capture, Trancik adds.

Finally, due to the limitations of the study, some of the most significant climate policies were not taken into consideration, explains Gernot Wagner, climate economist at Columbia Business School, pointing to carbon taxes passed by the Swedish government in the early 1990s and the Inflation Reduction Act, signed by President Joe Biden in 2022.U.S. climate law invests hundreds of billions of dollars in clean energy and tax credits for low-carbon technologies like heat pumps. It is estimated that the law could reduce emissions by 40% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels.

“I wouldn't be surprised if, if we repeated this study in five or 10 years, the Inflation Reduction Act would be found to cause a large drop in emissions,” Wagner concludes.

A basic income of £2 a day as a solution to protect Peru's rainforests?

Together with two all-women indigenous organizations – the National Organization of Andean and Amazonian Indigenous Women of Peru (ONAMIAP) and the Organization of Indigenous Women of the Central Selva of Peru (OMIAASEC) – Cool Earth, an action NGO for the climate, has launched a basic income project aimed at Amazonian communities in central Peru.The objective:combine economic sustainability and protection of rainforests.

The project involves 188 people in three Asháninka and Yánesha communities in the Avireri-Vraem reserve, selected because they are known to be interested in conservation and reforestation.Each person receives two pounds a day which they can spend without constraints.Funds are distributed directly to communities, allowing families to rebuild their livelihoods and protect their land.

“At the beginning there was a lot of fear and mistrust.The communities had the perception that it was another scam, we feared that it was another project that would try to impose something from above without respecting their autonomy", says Ketty Marcelo, president of ONAMIAP.Then, however, the first results arrived.Before the pilot project, nine out of 10 people in the communities reported being in difficulty due to lack of food, and initial monitoring shows that the situation has improved.Families were also able to invest money and spend more time growing (cocoa, cassava, coffee) for food or for sale.

“It is the world's first basic income pilot project for indigenous people living in rainforests, with a link to forest protection and the fight against the climate crisis,” said Isabel Felandro, Global Head of Programs at Cool Earth , who leads the organization's work in Peru.“There are other basic income initiatives around the world, but most of them focus on humanitarian or social issues.In the communities we work with, their activities are very much linked to forest protection."

Cool Earth hopes the pilot project will inspire others to replicate the model and create basic income programs for rainforest communities around the world.It is exploring potential collaborations in Papua New Guinea and the Congo Basin in Africa.[Source: Guardian]

In Africa, countries are losing up to 5% of their GDP per year due to climate change

According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), every year in Africa states are losing up to 5% of their GDP due to climate change and are spending up to 9% of their budget on climate adaptation policies.“Africa – reads the report – is responsible for less than 10% of global greenhouse gas emissions, but is the region most vulnerable to extreme climate events, including droughts, floods and heat waves.

The WMO study looked at 2023, one of the three warmest years on record in Africa.Between September and October 2023, around 300,000 people across West Africa were affected by floods.Zambia has experienced its worst drought in 40 years.which affected almost 6 million people.In the Sahel region, south of the Sahara, floods have affected more than 716,000 people.According to experts, the trend of extreme weather events in Africa will continue into 2024.

As explained the climatologist Antonello Pasini, global warming is causing the intertropical convergence belt, the area where the heaviest rainfall is concentrated, to move northwards.Which is bringing exceptional rainfall to areas that are normally arid, such as the Sahara, with devastating consequences.This shift also has repercussions on the Mediterranean climate "because the further northward shift of the convergence band also favors the entry of African anticyclones into our territory".

WMO calls on governments to invest in early warning systems and meteorological services.If adequate measures are not taken, up to 118 million Africans will be exposed to drought, floods and extreme heat by 2030, warns the report which has estimated the costs of adapting to weather conditions over the next decade at between $30 and $50 billion .While the African continent has attracted more funding for climate mitigation and adaptation projects in recent years, it receives less than 1% of annual climate funding globally.This will be one of the most intricate topics of the next United Nations Climate Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan.[Source: AP]

As with extreme weather events, child marriage is increasing in Pakistan

Due to the devastation caused by extreme weather events, many families are forced to resort to child marriage in order to survive.This is what children's rights groups and UNICEF say.

This was the case of Saima (invented name) who at just 15 years old was married off to a man twice her age.The wedding took place just before the monsoon season, which brings with it torrential rains and floods.The family feared a repeat of 2022, when massive rains and unprecedented floods submerged a third of the country, ruining crops and displacing millions of people.And so Saima's father, Allah Bukhsh, a farmer, after losing his means of livelihood, decided to marry off his daughter in exchange for 200,000 Pakistani rupees (650 euros).

According to data made available by the government, Pakistan is the sixth country in the world in terms of the number of girls married before the age of 18.The legal age for marriage varies from 16 to 18 in different regions, but the law is rarely enforced.UNICEF said Pakistan has made "giant strides" in reducing child marriage over the past two decades.However, it saw a significant increase after the 2022 floods.“In a year with an event of this severity, we expect an 18% increase in the prevalence of child marriage:it would mean erasing five years of progress."[Source: DW]

The battle of Philippine fishermen against solar power plants

Laguna de Bay, a huge lake near Manila, is one of the Philippines' largest sources of fish.But with the increase in demand for electricity in the capital and beyond, the government is considering using the water lake for solar energy.

The Philippines plans to produce half of its electricity from renewable sources by 2040 but, as an archipelago of more than 7,000 islands, it has limited resources on land.For this reason the government is considering using floating photovoltaics, installing solar panels on bodies of water.The proposed Laguna Lake project would become the world's largest on a natural lake, generating about 2 gigawatts of electricity for the Laguna area and Manila by 2026.

But the Philippines' largest fishermen's alliance, the National Federation of Small Fisherfolk Organizations in the Philippines, or Pamalakaya, says the project could impact more than 8,000 fishermen and could reduce their fishing grounds.They also fear that waterborne solar panels could reduce fish catches, impede boats or even destroy them.

On the other hand, the population needs energy.And Pakistan must reduce its dependence on coal, which was responsible for about 62% of its electricity generation last year.The local authority involved in this battle, the Laguna Lake Development Authority (LLDA), said it regularly meets with fishing groups to listen to their concerns but the solution is still far from being found.[Source: Contex Newsroom]

Can 'climate stripes' change the way we think about air pollution?

Inspired by Ed Hawkins' 'climate stripes', a team of scientists has created a new way to visualize air pollution from 1850 to today and how depending on where we live and the actions of individual governments we breathe more or less clean air.

Each year is a separate vertical bar, colored according to the amount of particle pollution.Air that meets World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines is sky blue.Shades of yellow, brown and black represent the highest pollution, in a color scheme that reflects more than 200 smog images from around the world.Dr Kirsty Pringle, from the University of Edinburgh, who co-led the project, said:“Air pollution is often called the invisible killer, but these images make the invisible visible, showing changes over decades.”

Through the stripes it is possible to get a sense of the improvements in London and Beijing, or how air quality is worsening in Jakarta and Islamabad, whose trajectory is representative of the paths of many developing countries that are seeing rapid urbanization and industrial growth without controls on air pollution.

Over 99% of the world's population still breathes air that does not comply with World Health Organization guidelines.Even after improvements in Europe, particle pollution still causes over 400,000 early deaths per year.[Source: The Conversation]

Data on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere

Preview image via carbonminus.com