The debate about Milan and pollution is all wrong.What the data says and how we should talk about it

The weekly round-up on the climate crisis and data on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

It took a red spot on the European Space Agency (ESA) cartography and a podium placement in a ranking of little relevance, as if it were an Olympics competition, to make the poor air quality of the Po Valley news.Which isn't so much news, it's everyday life in certain periods of the year and should be newsworthy due to its periodicity.But it is enough to make people talk about a systemic issue once again in terms of emergency and inevitability and trigger the angry reaction of mayors and the usual brawl of comments which in the end only generate noise and confusion, shifting attention from the real crux of the matter :namely that air pollution is “an important public health issue that seriously threatens the well-being of people and our environment”, as stated just last October by Maria Neira, Director of the Environment, Climate Change and Health Department of the World Health Organization (WHO).And that very specific political decisions should be taken instead of looking the other way.

What the data say about air quality in Milan and the Po Valley

But let's go in order.Last Sunday the Swiss company IQAir found that Milan's air quality was the third worst in the world with an index of 193, behind only Lahore (value 252), Pakistan, and Dacca (index 249), Bangladesh.IQAir added that, based on its findings, the concentration of Pm_2.5 (the so-called fine particulate matter, solid and liquid atmospheric particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometres) in Milan would be 27.4 times the annual average concentration limit value (5 micrograms per cubic meter of air) indicated by the World Health Organization (WHO).For the European Union the limit is 25 micrograms per cubic meter of air – µg/m³ – in one day for the PM_2,5 and 50 µg/m³ for the PM₁₀.

The news sparked the reaction of the mayor of Milan, Giuseppe Sala, who he defined the survey released by IQAir is "the usual extemporaneous analysis managed by a private body" and added that "the analyzes of Arpa (Regional Environmental Protection Agency) demonstrate the complete opposite" and that the air quality "has improved even if I argue not enough.”

Which ARPA analyzes does the mayor of Milan refer to?I am data from the last 20 years on levels of fine dust (PM_2,5 and PM₁₀), gases (ozone and nitrogen dioxide) and carbon compounds (carbon monoxide, CO, and carbon dioxide, CO₂) in the air.According to the findings of Arpa Lombardia, 2023 was the best year for average annual values ​​and for the number of days in which the limit was exceeded (49 in Milan although the limit By law is 35 days) and marks the culmination of a trend of progressive improvement in the air quality of Milan and all of Lombardy.

So the alarm is over?Social media controversy, as branded by Mayor Sala?Reality exaggerated by the media with sensationalist and catastrophic information?Not exactly.

It is precisely the Arpa data that gives us the answer.Limiting ourselves to the days to which the IQAir survey refers, many stations they detected particulate values ​​well above the limits established by law.On February 19, the prosecutor_2.5 had a daily average above 80 μg/m³ and Pm₁₀ exceeded 100 μg/m³.Similar values ​​were also recorded on February 15, 16, 17 and 18. And it wasn't any better in other cities of northern Italy such as Turin, Asti, Brescia and Bergamo.

This graphical representation of PM concentration₁₀ on the Po Valley created by Copernicus, the European Union's weather service, it is particularly effective:

#ImageOfTheDay

The current high-pressure system has caused a deterioration of #AirQuality in #Italy 🇮🇹

⬇️According to us #CopernicusAtmosphere Monitoring Service, #PM10 has exceeded 100 μg/m3 in many areas of the Po Valley yesterday pic.twitter.com/xyCeRbfHhx

— Copernicus EU (@CopernicusEU) February 19, 2024

And if it is true that the IQAir ranking leave whatever time you find (here an in-depth analysis by Donata Columbro on where and what data to look for on air quality), the Swiss company's findings substantially match those of Arpa, as journalist Silvia Lazzaris observes on LinkedIn.Indeed, where the lines diverge, it was Arpa that recorded worse data.This is because - continues Lazzaris - IQAIR "is fed precisely by Arpa's data", to which are added "those of the European Environment Agency, of Purple Air (a company similar to IQAir) and of eight citizens who allowed the 'company to use data recorded by their air quality readers.'Therefore, it is at least inappropriate to define IQAir's analyzes as extemporaneous, as done by the mayor of Milan, Sala.

Finally, we cannot even speak of a phenomenon limited to these last few days.As shown in an animation created by the European Space Agency (ESA), based on data collected with satellite systems, the air quality was poor (for several consecutive days "extremely poor", the worst possible level) for good part of the month of January in almost the entire Po Valley:

Again according to Arpa data (average of three stations), observe Silvia Lazzaris again in another post on LinkedIn, in 2024, in Milan, the days beyond the limit set by the EU directive are already 34 for the PM_2,5 (there were 52 in all of 2023) and 23 for the PM₁₀ (in all of 2023 there were 32).

The situation is serious, therefore, and is not exaggerated by the media, despite the emergency tones.Only in recent days have Municipalities begun to take countermeasures and inform citizens of the health risks of remaining outdoors for long periods of time.But we ask ourselves, once again, how sufficient it will be to reiterate these buffer solutions without long-term interventions on a problem that is systemic.

Just last September an analysis of DW and European Data Journalism Network had used data from the Copernicus satellite system to estimate the level of air pollution in Europe and had found that in no other EU country are the Italian pollution levels reached (10 million people, 18% of the population, live in areas with particulate matter exceeding 20 micrograms per cubic meter of air), except for Poland, and that the Po Valley is the most polluted area in the European Union.There, writes Lorenzo Ruffino on Political report card, the five most polluted areas at provincial level in Europe are located:the provinces of Cremona and Milan (24.3 micrograms per cubic meter), Monza and Brianza (24 micrograms), Lodi (23.9) and Mantua (23.5).Close behind, the provinces of Padua (22.5 micrograms), Verona (20) and Vicenza (19.5).All with levels between four and five times above the limit recommended by the WHO.

The causes of air pollution

The factors that contribute to the worsening of air quality in the Po Valley They are different, some can be intervened on, others not.

First of all, there are the characteristics of the territory.The Po Valley is closed on three sides by the Alps (to the west and north) and by the Apennines (to the south) and has only one outlet towards the Adriatic Sea, to the east:for this reason it has little ventilation and poor air circulation, worsened by the phenomenon of winter temperature inversions.When, as in recent weeks, there is high pressure and temperatures above seasonal averages, the colder air stagnates in the plains, even for days or weeks, and prevents atmospheric renewal with a consequent increase in the concentration of fine and coarse particulate matter, explains the European Space Agency.The summer months, however, can be characterized by high levels of ozone, due to the increase in solar radiation and the presence of precursors (nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds) emitted from various sources.

Added to this is the presence of many large cities, industries, livestock farms and intensive agricultural crops which make the Po Valley one of the most densely populated and industrialized areas.The consequence is the emission of large quantities of polluting substances deriving from industrial, agricultural and livestock activities, from the high number of vehicles in circulation and from the heating of homes.As he pointed out the European Union Environment Agency in a report on air pollution published last January 25, "Central-Eastern Europe and Italy record the highest concentrations of fine particles, mainly due to the combustion of fossil fuels for domestic heating and their use in industry".

The health consequences

Already at the time of the pandemic there had been a lot of talk about the effects of air pollution on the health of inhabitants, when some studies had tried to identify a possible correlation with a higher rate of illnesses linked to the new coronavirus in particularly polluted areas.

According to the WHO, air pollution is among the main causes of cardiovascular diseases and premature deaths.In particular, pollutants that have been shown to have health effects are particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide.Data from the World Health Organization show that almost the entire world population (99%) breathes air that exceeds the limit of 5 micrograms per cubic meter of air and contains high levels of pollutants.Globally, the WHO estimates that air pollution is responsible for approximately 7 million premature deaths per year for ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer and acute respiratory infections such as pneumonia, which mainly affect children in low- and middle-income countries.

Based on a recent study by the EU Environment Agency (EEA), fine particulate matter caused the premature deaths of 253,000 people in 2021 in EU countries, in addition to 52,000 deaths from exposure to nitrogen dioxide pollution and 22,000 from exposure to ozone pollution.

Furthermore, exposure to air pollution causes diseases not only of a respiratory nature, which also means an increase in the load (and costs) on the healthcare sector.A situation similar to that observed during the pandemic.In 2019, the EEA continues its exposure to PM_2,5 caused 175,702 years lived with disability (YLD) due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 30 European countries.At the same time, exposure to nitrogen dioxide caused 175,070 years of living with disability due to diabetes mellitus (also known as type 2 diabetes) in 31 European countries.In the same year, 12,253 people in 23 European countries were hospitalized with lower respiratory tract infections due to acute exposure to ozone.

As regards Italy, the deaths attributable to fine particles are almost 47 thousand, those to nitrogen dioxide over 11 thousand and those to ozone over 5 thousand.A total of around 63 thousand people, 28 thousand less than in 2009, demonstrating greater attention to air pollution but far from the EU objective of halving premature deaths by 2030.

The most recent data provided by the Ministry of Health they date back to 2015.At the time the Ministry estimated around 30 thousand deaths per year attributable to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), a shortening of life expectancy by 10 months for inhabitants exposed to air pollution and the possibility of saving 11 thousand lives a year by respecting the limits set by European directives.

It's Italy?Is it just a matter of bad luck for the geomorphology of the Po Valley?

Albeit late, this time too some provinces of the Po Valley they adopted temporary measures to reduce smog levels.Among these, the ban on the combustion and lighting of fires outdoors, the obligation to keep the heating of homes, offices and shops below 19°C and, in municipalities with more than 30 thousand inhabitants, every day from 7am: 30 to 7.30 pm, the restriction of the circulation of all Euro 0 and 1 vehicles of any fuel, and of Euro 2, 3 and 4 diesel vehicles.The bans will remain in force until the values ​​have returned within the limit levels for two consecutive days (or for a day with weather forecasts unfavorable to the accumulation of pollutants).

While it is true that the particular characteristics of the Po Valley contribute to alterations in air quality, affecting the health of its inhabitants, its unique geographical and meteorological conditions constitute a persistent environmental challenge that requires short and long-term interventions.In other words, given that we have to keep the orography, we need to act on the factors that we can change.

Combustion vehicles are a major source of PM2.5 and PM10.Since we have to keep the orography, we need to act on the factors that we can change.If there is an area where the electrification of transport should take place, it is precisely the Po Valley. pic.twitter.com/wVbqjsdL8n

— Antonio Scalari (@tonyscalari) February 19, 2024

So what to do?According to the WHO, reducing air pollution requires short- and long-term interventions.Air quality is closely linked to the Earth's climate and ecosystems globally.And therefore the priority is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, contributing “to the mitigation of climate change and the reduction of the burden of disease and air pollution”.

Sources of air pollution – goes on the WHO – are multiple and specific to each context.Given that “major sources of outdoor pollution include residential energy for cooking and heating, vehicles, energy production, agriculture, waste incineration and industry, policies and investments to support a sustainable land use, cleaner domestic energy and transport, energy-efficient housing, energy production, industry and better municipal waste management can effectively reduce the main sources of pollution in the 'air and the environment'.

It goes in this direction Zero Pollution Action Plan of the EU.The plan aims to reduce the number of premature deaths caused by air pollution in the EU by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 2005;the percentage of people chronically disturbed by transport noise is 30%;EU ecosystems where air pollution threatens biodiversity by 25%;by 50% the losses of nutrients, the use and risk of chemical pesticides, the use of the most dangerous ones and the sale of antimicrobials for farm animals and aquaculture;50% of plastic waste in the sea and 30% of microplastics released into the environment;the total waste production significantly and the residual urban waste by 50%.

The objective of the plan is to transform production methods and direct investments towards "zero pollution" without slowing down all economic activities as happened with the lockdowns.

The European Parliament in September has approved a text of the Air Quality Directive, with the main objective of bringing EU standards closer to WHO recommendations, which will now have to be assessed by the European Council and negotiated again with Parliament.Since the 1980s, the EU has adopted stringent air quality policies for 12 air pollutants.EU countries are called upon to respect their national commitments to reduce emissions of five important air pollutants:nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMOCs), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ammonia (NH3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

As rebuilds environmental journalist Rudi Bressa, Italy, or rather the governors of Piedmont, Lombardy and Veneto, has tried on several occasions to reduce the impact of the directive.Bressa writes:“At the end of May 2023 the governors of Piedmont, Lombardy and Veneto flew to Brussels to present a counter-proposal:transform the limits imposed by law on various pollutants into simple objective values, which would deprive large sections of citizens of protection, while at the same time making it impossible to prosecute violations through the courts".

A few months earlier, in February 2023, continues Bressa, the Lombard technicians presented data and documents at the meeting of the Committee of European Regions to argue that "achieving the limits set by the proposal would be impossible even if entire Po Valley regions and every activity were literally turned off."In short, the same tactics used to weaken the ecological transition:“It's too late now, the undertaking is enormous, it's not worth it”.In fact, Bressa writes:“The leitmotif used is the same for the ecological transition, and for all those who in some way are trying to undermine the Green Deal:'Feasibility, timing, responsibility'.(...) In this situation, Italy has opposed the text of the Directive from the beginning, with the Po Valley regions in the lead, preferring the usual political compromises".

Meanwhile, in February 2024 a study has been published according to which postponing the new directive and compliance with the new limits on air quality for 10 years would mean 330 thousand more victims.A third of the additional mortality, over 100 thousand people, would occur in Italy (here an interview with Francesco Forastiere, visiting professor at Imperial College London, who contributed to the study).It is true, concludes Bressa, that "over the last 30 years the air has improved, thanks also to those directives from 15 years ago which need to be revised".But "science is not enough, the appeals of citizens are not enough, the proposals of associations are not enough", what matters is that "those who should look after the interests of all citizens" do not decide "to simply look the other way" ”.And don't repeat the mistakes already made in managing the pandemic.

Preview image:Mix of fog and smog covering the Po Valley in a photo from the Copernicus Sentinel-3 Mission of 29 January 2024 via ESA