The German minister is right:Italian tourism is threatened by the climate crisis.And denying the evidence won't save him

“If things continue like this, these holiday destinations will have no long-term future.”The recent controversies over statements of the German Minister of Health, Karl Lauterbach, on holiday in Italy during the terrible heat wave in mid-July which saw temperatures constantly above 40 degrees, are symptomatic of a country which, having devoted itself body and soul to tourism for years, he only conceives mockery towards those who dare to say that the king is naked (due to too much heat).

If it is true that the news of the following days, with the crises of the big cities like Palermo And Catania and the escapes of tourists from Veneto and from Puglia, took it upon itself to confirm Lauterbach's forecasts in essence, it is equally undeniable that the reaction of the operators was to considerably raise prices, as detected from the survey by the Demoskopica institute.In a short-term projection which however is simply limited to speculating on current tourist flows.Suffice it to say that in a complex summer like this, Ferrovie dello Stato has also chosen to ride the trend, throwing on 25 July the company "FS Treni Turistici Italiani", created to exclusively manage rail tourism.Just in the umpteenth difficult season for those who intend to travel by train.

On the other hand, already in 1976 Giorgio Gaber had understood, in one of his symbolic pieces of song theatre, that understanding the crisis was not enough to resolve it.Let alone deny it or minimize it.Yet this is what is happening with tourism in the era of the climate crisis.

Annoyance, lies and stereotypes to dismiss the problem

“The German said that tourism in Italy is destined to fail due to the climate:something not even supported by the data.It also seems terrible to me."When Andrea Giambruno, journalist and companion of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, releases the usual restorative interview al Corriere della Sera It's July 29th.Giambruno had attacked Minister Lauterbach during the daily show Diary of the Day, on Rete4, a few days earlier, on 26 July, addressing him directly:“If you don't like it, stay at home, stay in the Black Forest, you're fine, right?”.

It is presumed that from that first angry reaction on Rete4 to the declarations made subsequently to Courier, Giambruno had time to meditate, refine and study.But no.We will return to the incredible risk of the absence of data later.It also deserves a separate discussion the story on climate change, sometimes skeptical and more often openly denialist, by Giambruno himself.But what is interesting to analyze here is the defense that was launched immediately after Lauterbach's complaint.In fact, mass tourism increasingly rhymes with national interest.

If the Minister of the Environment, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, preferred not to go into the merits of the controversy, speaking generically of "climate tropicalisation" which directly affects the economy, the Minister of Tourism, Daniela Santanché, has chosen an ambivalent communication.On the one hand, he declared that "we are aware of climate change", while speaking of sustainability as "one of the central assets and essential tool for the development and growth of the sector", and therefore confirming that we aim for a further increase of tourist flows and not to its reduction;on the other hand, he reminded Lauterbach that "Italy has always been the favorite destination for his compatriots for holidays and, naturally, we look forward to welcoming him again in the future", without therefore giving up what was intended to be a jab.

Attached to tourism summer to avoid admitting that industrial production is in difficulty and strongly employee in many supply chains, Italy has found itself in recent months within a favorable economic bubble (already decreasing) and, after emerging from Covid, it does not want to face another possible destabilization.Especially if it turns out to be true the statement of the Minister of Business and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso, for whom "tourism is driving the Italian economy", even if on the real importance of the sector - which, as Sarah Gainsforth has been repeating for some time, is low added value and with low productivity, low innovation, low investment and low wages -  there is much to discuss, such as explains this article by Political report card.

In any case, Lauterbach's words touched a raw nerve not only for the right in government.In this sense the most emblematic reaction is that of a local administrator of the Democratic Party.From Emilia Romagna, which is trying to recover from the terrible flood that hit it last May, a open letter, written by the mayor of Rimini, Jamil Sadegholvaad, who, between Italian pride and the rhetoric of a big-money seller, seems to come from the 1980s, when Rimini was known as "the capital of entertainment".

It's worth quoting it in full:

Most Illustrious Professor Karl Lauterbach, 

Allow me to officially invite you to the city of Rimini for your next holidays in Italy.We would care a lot.There are millions of German citizens who consider Rimini and Romagna their second homeland, as well as the whole of Italy, which has always been a dream and desire for everything that goes beyond the daily routine.Your great compatriot Johann Wolfgang von Goethe dedicated a travel book to us, 'Italienische Reise'.Over and over again, and in more cities visited, he praised the Italian Sun as a natural element that gives (written like this, without accent, sic) joy and flavor to life.I can reassure you:we are here and don't be afraid:our tourism, as well as tourism throughout southern Europe, will not disappear due to climate change.As European citizens we will give our contribution to finding solutions capable of stopping its negative effects;we will do what is necessary to ensure that this continues to remain the holiday destination for Goethe's descendants too.The sun will continue to shine and do well.In any case we have umbrellas, air conditioning, museums, restaurants, bars, pizzerias.Most illustrious Professor Karl Lauterbach, as we say here, 'come over' to Rimini.We await you with a welcome and a smile.

Random capitals and punctuation, again the references to the fact that Germans come on holiday in Italy (so they can't criticise?), the usual references to Goethe's trip and the most hackneyed stereotypes, the response to an existential threat such as climate change with “a welcome and a smile”:Is this the most you can expect from a territory that focuses so much on tourism?From those in power there is not a single response that looks at the scenarios, the prospects.

The only reaction that seems to understand the extent of the ongoing problem was that of the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella.According to one Note Of Reuters, Together with his counterparts from Greece, Croatia, Slovenia, Malta and Portugal, President Mattarella signed a joint statement calling for urgent measures to tackle the climate crisis, following recent scorching heat waves, fires and floods .The fear is that such extreme summers could seriously impact two of the most important economic sectors for Mediterranean countries:tourism, precisely, and agriculture.

Needless to say, President Mattarella was also immediately attacked by the denialist right and skeptical liberals:from Nicola Porro, deputy director of Newspaper, for which "we can glimpse, once again, the paradigm that prevailed during the Covid emergency, for which it seems legitimate to overwhelm and sacrifice everything and everyone", a Claudio Cerasa, director of The Sheet, according to which Mattarella's outburst would demonstrate "little eco-confidence in the future" and "risks fueling a sense of guilt", up to Maurizio Belpietro, director of The Truth, who goes so far as to mock Mattarella by calling him "a new climatologist" who "from the Quirinale palace scrutinizes the clouds and measures temperatures, controlling rainfall and drought and then issuing his sentences".Apparently, according to the front that denies/minimizes the climate crisis, not even fears are allowed, even when they come from the highest institutional office.It's a shame that, contrary to what Andrea Giambruno, the partner of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, claims, the repercussions on tourism are instead supported by a considerable amount of research And analyses.

Data and sensations tell us the same thing

Let's start again from the alarm launched by the German Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach. 

In the tweet of July 13 Lauterbach was not limited to his own perception of someone who has just arrived in a city that, according to the data ARPAE, it could have reached 37 degrees.But he linked to a recent one reports of ESA, the European Space Agency, which expressly speaks of potential "warmest temperatures ever recorded in Europe", recalls that "this follows the warmest June on record, with unprecedented sea surface temperatures and a record extension of Antarctic sea ice" and that "this summer risks being worse" than that of 2022 when, according to a study published on Nature, more than 60,000 people have died due to summer heatwaves, with the death rate highest in countries such as Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal.However, none of the hot reactions made any mention of this ESA report.

Instead of entrenching ourselves in conservative positions, we should understand that it is necessary to act as soon as possible:according to a item Of Bloomberg, extreme heat alone could cost the travel industry in southern Europe as much as $2 trillion.The data isn't there if you don't want to find it, only to then take it out, almost as if it were "premonitions", after disasters have occurred, just because you didn't listen to it in time.An emblematic case comes testified from Circular Economy.com:

Released on May 23, the study “Regional impact of climate change on European tourism demand” had gone almost completely unnoticed.And yet it has enormous value, especially in light of the extreme heat and fires that are plaguing half of the continent.Made by Joint Research Center of the European Commission (JRC), the document analyzes how the tourism industry, which “significantly contributes to European GDP”, will be impacted by climate change.Working on data from 269 regions collected over a period of twenty years, JRC scientists are trying to predict how things will change for this important European industry between now and 2100.The study then simulates the impacts of future climate changes on tourism demand for four levels of warming (1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C and 4°C) in two emission pathways.And the one who emerges with broken bones is precisely southern Europe (...) Just to give an example:While the Greek islands are expected to experience a 9% loss in the number of overnight stays, West Wales is expected to see a tourism boom, with a 16% increase.And Italy?Even in this case, our country is among those in the worst situation:the eight thousand kilometers of coastline, the two largest islands (Sicily and Sardinia) and the 27 smaller islands will have to face losses in tourist demand of more than 5%.

The effects of the climate crisis are not only affecting the coasts but also the mountains and therefore ski tourism. As he remembers Wired:

According to the Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC) by 2050 there will be an overall reduction in snowfall throughout the national territory.From -20 to -40 days of snow cover per year across the entire Alpine range:in general, a temperature rise of at least 1 degree is estimated between now and 2100.Although the worst scenarios reach up to 5 degrees higher in certain mountain areas.In any case, with just 1 degree more, all the ski resorts in Friuli Venezia Giulia and a third of the ski resorts in Lombardy, Trentino and Piedmont would be below the "snow reliability line" (Lan).Therefore, in both summer and winter, people will visit the mountains at different times of the year compared to today, also because weekday usability will be oriented more towards trekking than skiing due to the climatic conditions.

Equal fears, then, are harbored regarding cultural and artistic tourism.This time the projection he arrives by Paola Mercogliano, CMCC climatologist, on The Daily Fact:

The areas of Northern Italy will experience an increase in temperature and there will be less but more intense rainfall.Of greatest concern are the large urban centers (including cities of art) which already suffer from the phenomenon of heat islands due to various factors, many of which are caused by human activities.As explained by Paola Mercogliano, CMCC climatologist who participated in the drafting of the PNACC (National Climate Change Adaptation Plan, ed), “with 1.5°C more, the duration of heat waves will increase by 100% by 2050, but it would reach 261% with an increase of 2 degrees”.If in Milan in 2020 there were 10 days of heat waves, an average increase of 1.8 degrees (but in summer it would reach 2.7°C) would increase, in 2040, the days of infernal heat to 19 .In Rome we would go from the current 10 to 18.Not being able to predict well in advance when the heat wave will occur and for how many days, tourists could choose less hot (and shorter) periods to visit these cities, which can count on various historical and cultural attractions.

In truth this time there wouldn't even have been a need for who knows what data, who knows what research.Not just why, how he recalled Antonio Scalari on Blue suitcase, the scientific debate on climate change is over.But also because it would have been enough to listen to your body, listen to your sensations, look around, talk to anyone.The fainting tourists everyday queuing at the Colosseum, the sunburn and sunstroke of tourists in the mountains,  the rogue waves that they hit tourists on the coast:they are all phenomena that anyone (or almost anyone) can deal with.Ferdinando Cotugno explains it well in the Areale newsletter:

People have realized that this is not normal, you don't need to read 2 thousand pages of IPCC reports to know that.(...) I have an uncle, a cousin of my father, who all his life did only one thing:manage a beach.Her father ran it, who knows if his daughter will run it, it's a seaside resort, in short.In Italy it is a peculiar occupation, made up of privilege, amoral familism, common goods for private use, generally conservative ideas, attachment to an economic, social and productive status quo.This cousin of my father is a person who does not appreciate change, like anyone who profits from the changing of the seasons.I went to visit him last weekend.He knows what I'm about, he knows the things I think.He didn't even say hello to me, he immediately said:"the water is too hot here."Eh.The lido is located on the Tyrrhenian Sea, not sandy places along the northern coast of Campania.«The sea is warm, it's a tub, it's no longer the sea it was before».Eh.A few days after this conversation, the official data came out:the average temperature of the Mediterranean had never been so high, 28.40°C, compared to 28.25°C in 2003.He sat down to talk to me, drinking horrible coffee from a single-use plastic cup, he told me a story about alien species, the scourge of the blue crab, callinectes sapidus – “beautiful tasty swimmer” – a creature from the North American coasts of the Atlantic that rages in the our waters.And then the heat:it's too hot, people don't come anymore on such hot days, they can't handle it, they can't stand it, he told me.I don't know what the government media thinks about it, but in Italy it's so hot that some days you can't even stay on the beach anymore.This conservative uncle, sensitive to the government's reasons, with interests that are all in all aligned, however feels the wave of anxiety, of ecological upheaval, a life based on the seasons and betrayed by the seasons, without even the desire or strength to deny that there is 'something's wrong.Denialism has exploded, it is painful, it is pressing all our buttons and triggers in this cruel summer of boiling, but what future can it have against the concreteness of reality?

In the end we always come back to Giorgio Gaber.In the piece significantly titled "Let's save this country", Mr. G.he chooses the ironic register, his favourite, to talk about Italy at the end of the 70s, which was also in crisis, and faced with the list of "possible shortcomings" he breaks out a great aphorism:“Let us not be misled by reality.”We have reached the point where what was a paradoxical warning has become the mantra of Italian power.Not really a good sign.