Politics is not yet up to the challenges posed by the climate crisis.An analysis of party programs

The weekly round-up on the climate crisis and data on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

This summer's extreme temperatures, drought, fires, landslides and heavy rains, and the soaring prices of gas and electricity have placed energy and climate issues at the center of public discussion.But if the energy crisis has catalyzed the attention of politicians, the climate remains an issue that struggles to be a protagonist in this "summer electoral campaign".Nevertheless, they underlined Fridays for Future activists at the end of July, "these are our country's first climate elections."In early August the Italian Society for Climate Sciences published a open letter (reached almost 220 thousand subscriptions) in which he asked to Italian political parties with strong adaptation and mitigation actions to combat the climate crisis.

The think tank ECCO analyzed the "climate policy" proposals of the main coalitions, examining the programs deposited by the parties and, where not available, those presented by the coalitions.We report below their analysis.

Emissions, laws and participation

Almost no party has a national goal of reduction of emissions by 2030, as is present in most European countries, with the exception of Verdi-SI, which propose a national objective of 70% reduction compared to 1990, and Azione-Italia Viva, which proposes a 41% reduction compared to 2018.Most of the other parties tend to confirm the community objective of a 55% reduction by 2030 even if the centre-right coalition program calls into question the European objectives, without specifying which ones and how.

Analyzing more specific measures, theupdate of the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (stopped until 2019), an important instrument of climate policy as it identifies some sectoral tools and objectives for reducing emissions, is only mentioned by Verdi-SI, Lega and +Europa.

There Long-term strategy to 2050 stuck at the version presented at the beginning of 2021 and not yet sent to the UN Secretariat as required by the Paris Agreement despite the deadline being 2020, it is ignored by all parties.Only the Greens-SI propose to bring forward the climate neutrality objective from 2050 to 2045, in line with what has been done in Germany.

Other important elements of the climate strategy, such as the formation of an effective and climate-competent public administration and public participation in political decisions, are covered by political programs without ever making specific reference to climate issues.

There intergenerational justice – loudly requested by young people – is often mentioned in programs but never addressed in relation to the climate.We talk about minimum wage, paid internships, but not on which planet future generations will find themselves living and why this is a question of justice.

An element of difference in the programs is the presence of a proposal of one framework law on the climate, a legislative instrument adopted by many European countries, which has the aim of harmonizing and guiding all legislative measures.The climate law is proposed by PD and Verdi-SI for the center-left coalition, while it is not found in the program of Calenda and Renzi, the center-right and the 5 Star Movement.

On emissions, laws and participation a weak and confused widespread approach.Regarding emissions, there is no indication of a specific national objective for 2030 despite mostly referring to the European one.With the exception of the Greens-YES, no political force has more ambitious objectives than the European ones.There is a total lack of solutions to equip public administration for the climate challenge and plan the use of innovative participation tools or the adoption of principles such as intergenerational equity.

Energy

One of the hottest topics of the electoral campaign is theenergy, widely covered by all parties.While on the one hand there is a general consensus regarding the objective of containing energy costs which are putting families and businesses into crisis, substantial differences can be seen in the measures and technologies to be adopted.

All sides propose, albeit not always in depth, a cap on the price of gas, some at a European level and some at a national level.The nuclear it is one of the key points of the center of Calenda and Renzi and of the center-right coalition of Meloni, Salvini and Berlusconi.The center left and the 5 Star Movement put energy efficiency and renewables at the center, also identifying short and medium term quantitative objectives and do not envisage the use of nuclear energy.

The rift appears again, although in a much less clear way, on gas:the 5 Star Movement does not mention new infrastructure in its programme, the PD and +Europa are in favor of new regasifiers as a bridging solution compatible with decarbonisation, while Verdi-SI promotes the full use of existing infrastructure before committing to new plants.

Azione-Italia Viva proposes the construction of two floating regasifiers, and the center right also does the same, with the League hypothesizing a doubling of the TAP and a Barcelona-Sardinia-Italian Peninsula gas pipeline, also supported by Fratelli d'Italia.No elements are provided to evaluate how these infrastructures can be compatible with the European objective of reducing emissions by 2030, although confirmed in the Action-Italia Viva and Lega programmes.

The positions on the increase in prices are also similar national gas and oil extraction, promoted by Action-Italia Viva and the centre-right and not mentioned in the PD and +Europa programmes.The 5 Star Movement opposes the creation of new wells.Greens-SI propose Italy's full membership, on the occasion of the next COP27 in November in Egypt, to the international Alliance for the progressive exit from gas and oil production (BOGA) – of which our country has been a member since 2021 as a “friend” – which envisages a stop to fossil fuel production by 2045.

Energy emerges as a divisive issue, as the leaders' statements also confirm.If on the one hand there is general support for renewables and the speeding up of authorisations, on the other only Verdi-SI and PD propose clear quantitative objectives, the former reaching 80% penetration by 2030 and almost 100% by 2035 and the latter install 85 GW by 2030, values ​​compatible with the achievement of European objectives and in line with the commitments of the outgoing Government.In general, the center right proposes gas and nuclear for the transition and as technologies to lower the cost of energy, although it is not clear how the times and costs of nuclear and of a greater exploitation of national gas can contribute to the current price crisis and be compatible with climate objectives;the center left tends more to identify energy efficiency and renewables as the main structural response to the current contingency, in line with medium and long-term decarbonisation scenarios and European policies.

Adaptation

Adaptation policies they are a largely ignored topic in programs, despite the fragility of our country, among the most exposed in Europe to climate impacts.In fact, the damage caused by events such as floods and droughts should be managed with appropriate adaptation policies.Interventions which, if well designed, coincide with mitigation strategies and make it possible to ensure that the resources spent on climate policies have direct territorial impacts.Italy has an adaptation plan awaiting approval since 2018 and which requires modification.PD, Verdi-SI and Fratelli d'Italia are the only ones to mention an update.

For Action-Italia Viva and the League, the topic of adaptation is not addressed and is replaced by a policy for forest management.The programs propose sustainable forest management with attention to relaunching the wood supply chain, while Forza Italia promotes tree planting with the aim of "planting one million trees".The adaptation does not appear in the M5S program.

There water management it is a relevant theme of a country's adaptation strategy.Greens-SI and M5S explicitly talk about public water management, while the other parties, more or less uniformly, mention a plan to limit water dispersion without specifying the origin of the investments, with the exception of +Europa which mentions the investments private.

Even the protection of biodiversity it is treated in a fairly marginal way by most of the parties.Verdi-SI makes it an important part of the program with a target of 30% protected areas in line with European objectives.The centre-right coalition and the center foresee the creation of new natural reserves but without specifics while the League also deals with the topic of assisted evolution techniques, a sort of evolution of GMOs.

Adaptation still remains marginal in political proposals.In the first elections in which the climate becomes part of the electoral programmes, the ability of the parties to express an articulated and complex climate policy is still limited, although the adaptation and resilience policies, aimed at preventing, reacting and resisting the impacts of climate change, are an essential component of climate policy.

Production sector and work

Most economic activities are strongly influenced by national and European energy and climate policies.This applies to SMEs, the country's key productive fabric, and to industrial processes with high energy and emission intensity such as cement, steel and chemicals.Policies involving the automotive industry, which will see a complete reform in the next decade, agriculture, strongly impacted by climate change, fishing and tourism (not covered here) highly sensitive to climate impacts.

No party proposes a decarbonisation plan for steel, ignoring both the path to green steel and the management of the environmental impacts of the current situation.

No party, with the exception of Verdi-SI, mentions la in the programme plastic tax, whose introduction is postponed from year to year and despite the fact that every year Italy pays 800 million euros to Europe in plastic taxes as a contribution to cover the Next Generation EU program from which the resources come to finance the National Recovery and Resilience Plans (PNRR).

However, the topic of waste management, with particular attention to waste-to-energy plants.This issue strongly divides the political alignments between supporters (Lega, FdI, FI, Azione-Italia Viva) and opponents (M5S, PD, SI-Verdi).

As for the mobility, the parties are quite in agreement regarding the importance of the electric car, with the centre-right coalition also keeping the door open to more efficient internal combustion and hybrid cars, while the M5S and the centre-left are focusing more decisively on electrification of private transport.

The public transport it is mentioned generically, but the tools for its promotion and the integration of active mobility find little space.In terms of costs for public transport, the M5S offers the single integrated ticket, the PD discount systems especially for young and old people, Verdi-SI preferential rates for different categories and 10 months of free public transport.The rest of the parties cite generic support for local public transport.

The topic of just transition in relation to changes in production activities in the field of energy conversion.

In general, the climate is not identified as a key variable in the industrial and employment policy proposals of the various parties. It is difficult to find in the programs the link between the energy and climate transition and the opportunities for relaunching investments, employment opportunities and competitiveness, even for sectors strongly influenced by climate objectives such as cement or steel - characterized by a large significant energy consumption and process emissions – or for strategic issues for the economy and quality of life such as mobility, agriculture and waste management.

Finance

The theme of finance and investment management it is central to any electoral campaign, but it has acquired even more importance in these "summer elections", with the new government which will be called upon to implement the PNRR investments on a substantially definitive basis.

Right on the National Recovery and Resilience Plan all the parties are concentrated, with the M5S proposing greater control over the use of funds, and the center-right coalition program promoting the complete use of resources but also a revision of the plan.Action-Italia Viva focuses heavily on investments linked to the circular economy, a theme that includes waste management and waste-to-energy plants, while the centre-left intends to continue with the implementation of the plan, with Verdi-SI proposing a remodulation of the complementary fund and a particular attention to adaptation policies.

It essentially unites all sides, including the overcoming the stability pact, with only Azione-Italia Viva not mentioning the topic in the program.However, the differences in approach to debt in relation to climate are important.

The M5S clearly proposes the separation of green investments from the deficit, the centre-left calls for a revision of the stability pact in favor of ecological transition and sustainability, while the centre-right limits itself to calling for a revision of the same, without however explaining in which direction this modification should go.

Perhaps the most divisive theme among those analyzed in this category is the environmental tax reform, where the position of the League stands out, proposing to maintain subsidies for fossil fuels, while the M5S hypothesizes their conversion and Verdi-SI their abolition.

While on the one hand the PNRR, the Stability Pact and environmental taxation are only partially addressed, the major absentees from the programs are the public credit and guarantee institutions such as Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, Invitalia and Sace, fundamental bodies for the implementation of investments, which are examined only in the Verdi-SI programme, which proposes a reform that makes them "banks for the climate”.

Europe and foreign policy

Community politics emerges as a major watershed, with the centre-right coalition's program which envisages a significant change in Italy's position in the European negotiations to review the climate and energy objectives, but without indicating which ones and how.The center-left and M5S confirm the European objectives of the package Fit for 55 and the Green Deal;Azione-Italia Viva and +Europa do not explicitly mention the topic.

The only ones inclined to a greater European ambition I am Green-YES, in favor of an increase in the 2030 objectives of 55% renewables and 45% savings through energy efficiency.

Although foreign policy is essential and necessary to guarantee the global climate effort, without which national security and interests cannot be guaranteed even in the face of significant national efforts, it is the issue most ignored by the parties.

Although Italy was the protagonist in 2021 with the G20 Presidency and the co-organisation of COP26 in Glasgow, no words were said about COP27 in Egypt and the Italian Presidency of the G7 in 2024, with the exception of Verdi-Si. Greatly absent are climate finance commitments, which are mentioned only by Verdi-SI with the proposal to mobilize 4 billion dollars per year, in line with the fair share for Italy, and to reform the financial architecture within the G7/G20 to finance the transition globally.

Other differences in the programs can be found in the relationship with the gas suppliers non-Russians, particularly in Africa and the Mediterranean.The PD proposes the development of the green economy in the Mediterranean, with new partnerships focused on renewable energy and new models of industrial and agricultural development.In the same vein as Verdi-SI, who are also the only ones to propose that the gas contracts to manage the current crisis be limited in time.On the other hand, Action-Italia Viva and the center right aim to make Italy a European energy and gas hub, aiming to expand the countries from which Italy imports hydrocarbons.

Conclusions

What Italy is about to experience are the first elections where the climate is the protagonist in public opinion, and has entered the party programmes, political forums and newspaper headlines.

Three final considerations:

1. Programs do not always talk about climate change explicitly.The climate is present although still not sufficiently integrated into economic, employment, social and foreign policy policies.All parties, also thanks to the great pressure of young people and civil society, treat the climate as a central theme of their programme, albeit with different levels of ambition and sometimes profound differences.The fact that in principle all programs confirm the European emissions reduction objective for 2030 does not always mean that the proposals in the various sectors are consistent with this objective.
2. Two different paths for the transition emerge from the parties' proposals.The first, proposed by the centre-right, focuses on an energy system based on gas and nuclear (Action-Italia Viva also converges on this) and a revision of European objectives.The second, proposed by the progressive front, identifies efficiency and renewables as the main path to follow in line with European objectives.
3. Foreign climate policy is the great absentee despite the climate crisis being the great global challenge par excellence.

In general, given the recognition of the climate issue, the urgency emerges for politics to connect the achievement of objectives with the setting of policies and measures in the various sectors of the economy and society and of foreign policy.We need an informed debate based more on facts and data that allows us to verify the coherence between climate objectives and proposals.

The next government will play a decisive role, probably the most important ever, in the ecological transition to build the conditions for the deep decarbonisation of the economy and manage climate impacts and social issues.It is no coincidence that the Glasgow Pact COP26 climate review frames this decade as "the critical decade" for climate action.Governing change, anticipating market indications, directing investments in the right sectors will all be fundamental decisions for relaunching the Italian economy.On the contrary, being caught unprepared, offering passive or even regressive resistance to European objectives and market changes, risks exposing the key sectors of the Italian economy to an investment crisis, consequently also weakening the social fabric, starting with workers. more exposed to the fossil economy and to lower income groups.

For all these reasons it is essential to be clear about the strategic directions that each party intends to give to the country with respect to the key axes of climate policy.How the parties propose to address these social issues will be a decisive issue, first of all to bring Italians back to the polls, and then also to gain votes.Climate policies must become tools to address crises in a systemic, integrated way and without leaving anyone behind.

Climate policy must be seen as an opportunity – driven by the necessity and urgency of action – and not as a constraint.Above all, we must avoid masking inaction or the choice of certain technologies, without specifying costs and times of implementation and use, behind a generic "pragmatism" or "common sense", even more so if disconnected from facts and data, which risks be simple conservation of the status quo without perspectives, courage and realism.

The climate crisis will definitively mark the ability, or otherwise, of the current ruling class to respond to the needs and requests of citizens and businesses, and with it the ability to rebuild a pact of trust with the electorate based on the ability to face one of the major contemporary challenges.Trust which, according to current data, is increasingly crumbling.

Methodological note
In this study, the main selection criterion for party programs was exceeding the 3% threshold, according to the polls available at the time of the analysis (carried out during the month of August) on voting intentions.

Added to these were the Greens/SI and +Europe, because they were part of the centre-left coalition, and Noi moderates, part of the centre-right coalition.

The first phase of analysis included a broader program selection, to build a strong knowledge base on the parties' overall climate narrative, and with broad thematic categories.The sample was then narrowed according to the above-mentioned criteria and with more defined macro areas for the production of a technical and concise document.

For completeness, below you will find the programs:

People's Union
Italexit
Civic commitment

*This article has been published in original on the website of think tank Here.

(Preview image via forumalternativo.ch)