According to a new study, most climate policies have been ineffective

Implement policies aimed at combating climate change without accompanying them with incentives, price interventions or specific tax policies it could prove essentially useless:is what emerges from new peer-reviewed research led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) and published in magazine Science.The study used an innovative approach and a new database to analyze more than 20 years of climate policies, finding that only 63 cases out of approximately 1,500 were actually effective in significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.«Our data shows that many policies do not necessarily equate to better results:what is fundamental, however, is the right mix of measures", explain the authors of the study.

The research used a new databases of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and a innovative approach that combined machine learning methods with consolidated statistical analyses and analyzed policies implemented between 1998 and 2022.Of approximately 1,500 interventions studied in 41 countries on six continents, only 63 were classified as “effective” and led to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, which averaged 19 percent.The main characteristic of successful cases – explain the authors – is the inclusion of fiscal and price incentives in well-designed policy mixes:“We systematically evaluated policy measures that have rarely been studied until now, providing new insights into well-designed combinations of complementary policy tools.From this, we derive the best practices for the construction, electricity, industry and transport sectors, and in both industrialized and often overlooked developing countries. Our findings demonstrate that more policies do not necessarily equal better outcomes.Instead, the right mix of measures is fundamental.For example, subsidies or regulations alone are not enough;only in combination with price-based instruments, such as carbon and energy taxes, can they deliver substantial emissions reductions." he explained Nicolas Koch, head of the Policy Evaluation Lab at MCC and co-author of the study.

Additionally, the researchers provided some specific examples:Bans on coal-fired power plants or combustion-engine cars do not result in large reductions when implemented alone and are only successful when combined with tax or price incentives, as occurred in the United Kingdom or Norway.In the industrial sector, the example of China is cited, which thanks to pilot emissions trading systems it has significantly reduced greenhouse gases after just a few years, and in the transport sector we are talking about the United States and Germany which, thanks to a mix of incentives and subsidies for low-emission vehicles and ecotax reforms, have achieved similar and significant results.«Although it remains difficult to precisely disentangle the effects of individual measures within a policy mix, Our 63 success stories provide systematic insights into effective policy combinations.We show how well-designed policy mixes depend on sectors and the level of development of countries.This knowledge is crucial to support policy makers and society in the transition towards climate neutrality,” concludes Annika Stechemesser from PIK, guest researcher at the MCC and co-author of the study.Finally, the scientists also arranged a website called “Climate Policy Explorer”, which allows you to interactively analyze the results of their research in the sector.

[by Roberto Demaio]