From Al Jaber's "return to the caves" to the agreement in record time on Loss&Damage:what has happened so far at COP28 in Dubai

The first half of the UN climate summit has concluded.But the road to the final agreement remains long

«Protecting our climate is the greatest test of leadership in the world.The fate of humanity hangs in the balance."These were the words of the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to inaugurate Cop28, the annual conference on climate change which this year takes place in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates.As expected, the first half of the summit was marked by much controversy and little progress.But the road between now and December 12, the last day of the conference, is still long.Tomorrow, December 7, there will be a day of rest in the rooms and corridors of Expo City Dubai.Then there will be the last sprint, which will culminate with the negotiations on the final agreement on 10, 11 and 12 December.Here's a quick guide of what's happened so far and what you can expect in the coming days.

The agreement (in record time) on Loss&Damage

As if to sweep away all controversy, the very first day of COP28 ended with an agreement that had been awaited for decades:the decision to make the Loss&Damage fund operational, designed to help the poorest countries - and those least responsible for global warming - deal with the consequences of climate change.Italy, announced the prime minister Giorgia Meloni in his speech in Dubai, it will contribute 100 million dollars.The Loss&Damage agreement provides that the fund will be managed by the World Bank and that contributions from donor countries are voluntary and not mandatory.A result that was most likely made possible by negotiations carried out behind the scenes throughout the last year.

Nuclear power takes over the scene

Among the key events of the first days of COP28 there is also theagreement signed by 20 countries, including France and the United States, to "triple nuclear energy capacities in the world by 2050" compared to 2020.The objective, explained the White House climate envoy John Kerry, is «reducing dependence on coal and gas, the main challenge of this summit».The first world nuclear summit will also be held in March 2024, organized together with the International Atomic Energy Agency.The first edition of the summit will be held in Belgium and has already attracted the interest of Italy, among others."I don't rule out the possibility that Italy could participate in the summit as an observer," commented the Environment Minister Gilberto Pichetto.

Al Jaber and the "return to the caves"

The president of the conference, as well as CEO of the oil giant Adnoc, Sultan Al Jaber, was once again responsible for plunging COP28 back into controversy.“There is no scientific basis to indicate that it is necessary to give up fossil fuels to keep global warming within 1.5 degrees,” said the COP28 president, speaking at an online event in early November retrieved by Guardian.No goodbye to oil, gas and coal, therefore, "unless we want to take the world back into the caves".Words judged to border on denialism, which gave rise to a unanimous chorus of condemnations.Former American vice president Al Gore, always at the forefront of climate issues, went so far as to ask for Al Jaber's resignation.In the end there was no step backwards, but the oil president hastily organized a press conference to try to dampen the controversy:«Science is at the heart of my career progression.I respect numbers and data.There is confusion and bad interpretations."

The pact for renewables

Among the successes achieved in the first days of the Dubai summit there is also the commitment signed by 116 countries to triple the world's renewable energy capacity between now and 2030.What makes the agreement particularly significant is the fact that the signatory countries also include China and the United States, the two countries that have the greatest impact on total greenhouse gas emissions.Among the international actors who pushed most for the agreement there is also the European Union, with the President of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen who commented:«It's good news.We need energy that is affordable and accessible to all."

The fossil lobby is growing more and more

Among the saddest memories that COP28 will leave behind is the new record of lobbyists linked to fossil fuel producers who showed up at the UN conference.At COP26 in Glasgow there were 503, at COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh there were 626, this year there are 2,456.A record number, calculated by the NGO Kick Big Polluters Out, which only fuels the controversy over the close ties between the presidency of the Dubai summit - and therefore the government of the United Arab Emirates - and the Oil & Gas sector.The number of fossil fuel lobbyists attending talks has increased approximately fourfold in the space of just one year, while calls are growing from various associations to expel representatives of big polluters from the talks once and for all.

The long path to the final agreement

Having reached about halfway through the summit, the positions of the various countries on the final COP28 agreement still remain very distant from each other.The thorniest terrain, as predicted, is that of saying goodbye to fossil fuels.The European Union is part of that group of states that ask for the phase out, or the gradual elimination of fossil fuels from the global energy mix.Today EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra made it clear that "Dubai's Cop28 must give the green light to the abandonment of fossil fuels" and all EU countries "want this to be part of the final result".On the other side of the table, however, there remains a large group of countries that have no intention of giving up fossil fuels, starting with the United Arab Emirates themselves, which not only are the seventh largest oil producer in the world but also plan to increase production in next decade.The latest draft of the final agreement provides three options on this point:an “orderly and just” phase-out, “an acceleration of efforts to phase out fossil fuels,” and a third option that does not mention fossil fuel phase-out at all.

Putin's blackmail over Cop29

As if that wasn't enough, there is another knot to untie among the corridors of Dubai:the venue of the next UN climate conference.Typically, the location is chosen at least a couple of years in advance.And in fact the location for 2025 has already been established:Cop30 will take place in Belém, Brazil.Based on the rotation mechanism between areas, it would be up to an Eastern European country to host the 2024 summit.Bulgaria was the first to apply, but Russia's Vladimir Putin – which as an Eastern European country enjoys the right of veto – opposed it.The official reason given by the Kremlin is that "no EU country would be impartial towards Russia".According to the Bulgarian Minister of the Environment, however, Putin's veto would be nothing more than "a retaliation for the positions on the war in Ukraine".If the situation is not resolved by the end of COP28, the UN would find itself faced with an unprecedented scenario.Among the options on the table is the possibility of holding the 2024 conference in Bonn, Germany, where the United Nations Climate Change Agency (UNFCCC) is based.In this case, only the logistics headquarters would change, while the highly contested Sultan Al Jaber would once again preside over Cop29.

Cover photo:EPA/Martin Divisek | One of the corridors of Expo City Dubai, the location hosting Cop28 in the United Arab Emirates (6 December 2023)