The geopolitics of Cop28 according to Dario Fabbri:«The Gulf monarchies just want to wash their souls.On the climate, China and Russia are distant" – The interview

According to the director of Domino, the UN conference underway in Dubai is just an occasion in which "the powers say they are committed to saving humanity"

COP28 is first and foremost a climate conference, but it also represents a stage in which alliances and tensions between different international actors are exposed.With the difference that, at least as far as climate policies are concerned, the sides in the field are not necessarily the ones we expect to see.An example?The relationship between China and Russia, "which go together on many dossiers but remain distant on the climate", he observes Dario Fabbri.To the geopolitical analyst and editor of the magazine Domino we asked what the geopolitical implications of the UN summit currently underway in Dubai could be, from the meaning it could have for the monarchies of the Gulf to the unprecedented presence of the Holy See at the negotiating tables.

With COP28 in Dubai, the Arab world once again confirms its desire to play a leading role in international events.Is it just an attempt to clean up its image or is there a legitimate interest in the climate issue?

«The Gulf monarchies are among the major exporters of hydrocarbons, who wash their souls by hosting this type of conference.COPs are initiatives without any real cogency.At best, they are a moment in which the powers can portray themselves as committed to saving the world, but there are no penalties for those who do not respect the objectives that these congresses promptly set.This makes COPs an ideal context for countries that export hydrocarbons.Some, like Saudi Arabia, want to imagine a future that goes beyond this export and survive themselves.Others, like the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, use the issue only to show themselves at the forefront in the name of humanity."

Is the same division into blocs of the current world order replicated in climate negotiations?Or is there also room for new and unexpected alliances?

«On the climate, the divisions at an international level are similar but not identical.For example, China and Russia go together on many dossiers but are not very close on the climate issue.Russia says in words that it considers it a priority, but thanks to global warming wheat can now be grown in Siberia.And the Kremlin, in a non-farsighted way, thinks this is a positive turning point.China's commitment on this front is certainly more serious, even if like all the other powers it doesn't really do enough.The United States, on the other hand, is wavering:they are busy on the coasts of their country, but in the center the climate issue is not seen as a priority.It should be remembered that China also has a lot to gain from the ecological transition, since it is by far the leading producer of photovoltaic panels.Through climate change, Beijing hopes to transform itself into the country the West is forced to depend on for its energy."

Recent developments in the war in the Middle East have already ruined an agreement on renewables between Israel and Jordan.What effects could the war between Israel and Hamas have on COP28 more generally?

«It is difficult to say what effects this war will have, but I imagine not decisive ones.This Cop, like all the others, unfortunately exists in a narrative dimension that is much less factual than a war.So I don't think it can have a great influence, other than making it surreal that this COP takes place so close to the conflict."

In their latest meeting, Xi Jinping and Joe Biden reached an agreement to intensify cooperation on climate policies.Yet, neither of them will be present at Cop28.How should their absence be interpreted?

«Their absence should be read as a simple fact:they have more important things to do.Unfortunately, the great powers have never really taken climate issues seriously, beyond the narratives they spread.Some of their officials will be present at the Cop28 negotiations, so in terms of facts not much will change.What changes, if anything, is the narrative that the two countries create."

The European Union is the international actor that pushes most for ambitious objectives and a radical transformation of the economy.How much does this position affect the balance between the United States and China?

«The European Union is not an international actor, it is made up of nations and some of these are international actors.The EU is simply a forum where nations meet and its position only relatively affects the balance between the United States and China.Europe, even in the climate sphere, is a territory coveted by the great powers.A terrain of conflict and also of profit."

For the first time, the Holy See will also participate in the negotiations of a COP, even if Pope Francis was forced to remain in the Vatican for health reasons.What is the political value of this move?

«Pope Francis undoubtedly remains among the most committed actors on the climate issue.His absence at the moment for health reasons does not affect the commitment he has shown in recent years.We can say that the Holy See is the only one of the great powers truly committed to the core, and not just by narrative, in the climate issue."

Photo credits:EPA/Martin Divisek | One of the COP28 pavilions in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (30 November 2023)