COP28, what happened to the climate crisis?

The weekly round-up on the climate crisis and data on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

More than 70,000 diplomats, politicians, business leaders and environmental advocates from around the world are expected to attend the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference which this year will be held in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, from November 30 to December 12.

In fact, every year delegates from almost 200 states meet to discuss how to limit the increase in global temperatures and avoid the most disastrous consequences of climate change.This year's conference could be especially important as carbon emissions continue to hit record highs and the planet approaches potential tipping points that could send global warming out of control and trigger irreversible changes.

Life on Earth is 'under siege' by man

The Dubai summit comes after a summer of extreme weather events at all latitudes and in the midst of wars in Europe and the Middle East which could further weaken the ecological transition processes started in recent years and still keep the flame of fossil fuels alive .

The climate crisis has gradually slipped into the folds of governments' political agendas and has almost disappeared from the radar of our media which show their allergy to tackling complex phenomena, such as climate change, in their structural and systemic aspects, igniting the focus only on individual – extreme – events and narrate them with the language and tension of the emergency.As if the climate crisis were, in fact, an emergency that now exists and then passes, and when we no longer talk about it, it ceases to exist.Climate change makes news when it makes noise;but climate change as news is something else.And unfortunately, by continuing to talk about the climate crisis as an emergency (and only when there is a situation out of the ordinary), we end up giving incorrect coordinates that distort the lenses through which to observe, analyze and understand the phenomenon.

It's a discussion that we've been repeating to ourselves in the media for years: it was ithe 2015 when the former director of Guardian, Alan Rusbridger, spoke about the difficulty of covering climate change and the journalist, Margaret Sullivan, questioned in an editorial about Washington Post on how to find a way to "keep attention high on the effects of climate change, a topic that apparently always remains the same, sometimes without connection to the flow of daily news and which gives the perception of always reiterating the same news" (for example example, the month xy is the hottest in recent decades), without however giving in to language with overly dramatic tones or which tends to belittle what is happening.A broken record, in short.

And “a broken record” is the title of the latest one report published by UNEP, the United Nations Environmental Programme, because it reports information that has already been repeated for years:in 2022 emissions increased by a record 57.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, returning to pre-Covid growth levels and trends;emissions from fossil fuels and industrial processes are responsible for two thirds of total emissions and the emissions gap by 2030 remains essentially unchanged;current national emissions reduction targets (NDC) will lead to a maximum of 9% emissions reduction by 2030, compared to the 42% needed to stay within the threshold of 1.5°C above global temperatures pre-industrial era;continuing with current policies means an average global warming of 3°C.“Even in the most optimistic scenario taken into consideration – concludes the report – the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is 14%”.

“We usually talk about the need to protect the countries and populations most exposed to the effects of climate change.Now we've gotten to the point where we're all on the front lines." comment al Guardian Simon Stiell, appointed in 2022 as the new executive secretary of the UNFCCC, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.“Yet most governments are still walking when the final sprint should be starting.The more we proceed in small steps, the larger and quicker steps we will have to take in the coming years if we still want to stay in the race.The science is absolutely clear."

Even clearer in this regard is the “State of Climate Action 2023” report from the World Resources Institute which he noted how “countries are lagging behind on almost all policies needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Of the 42 indicators evaluated, electric vehicle sales are the only one on track.To limit global warming to 1.5°C, coal would need to be eliminated 7 times faster than the current rate.

Faced with this scenario, COP28 will first and foremost be an accountability climate conference, comment Andrea Ghianda, communications manager of the ECCO think tank.Or at least the awareness that what has been done so far has not been enough.“At COP28 – continues Ghianda – the countries will have to agree and declare how they want to proceed.All with a sense of responsibility regarding the feasibility, credibility and alignment of these promises.The same goes for fossil fuel companies.Only in this way will it be possible to achieve a credible and adequate result, that is, one that is ambitious enough to close the gap and at the same time achievable."

We will see whether the responses of governments and businesses are a "broken record" and partisan interests and short-term interventions prevail, which will end up further delaying the energy transition, or transformative and innovative solutions and actions, if the fossil fuel clouds gathering threateningly over this COP or more auspiciously the agreement between the US president, Joe Biden, and the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping on the need to triple renewables and double energy efficiency.

What to expect from COP28 in Dubai

“Global Stocktake”, “fossil fuels”, “loss and damage”, “climate finance” are the words to pay attention to during this climate conference.

The Global Stocktake will be the focus of the Dubai negotiations.It is the two-year global assessment through which States will evaluate the progress made as an international community under the Paris Agreement and what future actions to take in light of what (little) has been done so far.One of the key results of COP28 will be the content of the final text relating to the budget, considering that it will have to be a document that will contain the common actions to be taken and the evaluations of what has been done at a global level.Each country has indicated its priorities with respect to the budget:they range from proposals on how individual states should increase the ambition of their climate plans (nationally determined contributions, NDCs) to global objectives on measures to adapt to the effects of climate change and on climate finance from 2025 onwards.Given the all-encompassing nature of the Global Stocktake, each Party's contributions are as varied as the COP negotiations:everyone will be able to put pressure on specific objectives such as the energy transition, the transformation of the industrial sector, the development of particular technologies.We expect momentum on renewables, but some "forces" such as Russia's proposal to classify gas as a "transition fuel" or Australia's proposal to include low-carbon hydrogen among the global objectives raise concerns .

THE fossil fuels are the other big theme of COP28.As we will see in detail later, the assignment of the Climate Conference to an oil state, the United Arab Emirates, and the choice of Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of the state oil company, as president, sparked great controversy, among those who remember that it is not the first time that a country linked to fossil fuels (or a large emitter of climate-changing gases) hosts a COP, and those who instead underline the evident contradiction.However, this situation will put the spotlight on fossil fuels even more, with some countries calling for an agreement to phase them out in the coming years.

The presidency of the United Arab Emirates made "accelerating the energy transition and reducing emissions before 2030" one of the priorities of the summit, after around 80 countries gave momentum towards the hypothesis of the gradual elimination of all fossil fuels.All these efforts, however, were ultimately unsuccessful.

COP27 in Egypt:compromises are worth little against the most destructive capitalism

Sultan Al Jaber said that “the gradual reduction of supply and demand for all fossil fuels is inevitable and essential”.Some Parties (such as the so-called “High Ambition Coalition”, which includes France, Spain and Kenya) have declared that they will give priority to the complete elimination of fossil fuels, while others have placed emphasis on the elimination of only “unconsumed” fossil fuels or they rejected the idea altogether.Still other countries have pushed for more specific goals, such as ending coal or fossil fuel subsidies.

At the same time, the request to triple global renewable capacity, promoted by the International Energy Agency (IEA), supported in September by the G20 group of main economies and accepted by the presidency of COP28, together with the invitation to double the rate of greater energy efficiency.We will see which agreement the negotiations will converge on.

The other major objective of this COP is to operationalize a new fund for “loss and damage” caused by climate change.The decision to establish this fund, after decades of pressure from developing countries, is among the main outcomes of last year's conference in Egypt.After COP27, a “transition committee” made up of government officials from around the world was tasked with agreeing a framework for the fund.It was a question of deciding who would have to contribute, who would be able to draw on the fund and where it would be based.

Again, the negotiations have led to deep divisions between advanced economies and developing countries.Developing countries do not want the fund to be housed at the World Bank, they want the fund to be accessible to all developing countries and to be supported mainly by non-repayable financing from developed countries.In turn, developed countries want to ensure that the private sector, aid groups and wealthier states, such as China and Saudi Arabia, share the burden of paying for the fund.In the end, a draft framework was developed that could be approved at COP28, even if the United States does not agree on the final text and could reopen some issues in the negotiations.

Just i climate finance are the other important theme of this Conference.Developing countries need trillions in annual investment to realize their climate plans and transition to low-carbon economies.At the United Nations climate talks in Bonn earlier this year, some of these states openly stated that they did not want to discuss emissions reductions if the same focus was not placed on financial support.Next year, the Parties are expected to set a new global post-2025 target to provide developing countries with climate finance, but developed countries have still failed to meet the $100 billion per year financing for climate change. climate towards developing countries, set for 2020.

This is one of the most delicate issues that could guide the COP28 negotiations, to which the issue ofadaptation.In Dubai, the Parties will have to adopt a framework for achieving the “global adaptation goal”, first set in the Paris Agreement, but never defined.This is one of the priorities of some developing countries, which have long argued that the protection of the populations most exposed and vulnerable to the effects of climate change is given less consideration than efforts to reduce emissions (mitigation).Some Parties are likely to push for a reference to the target of doubling overall financing for adaptation - first mentioned in the Glasgow Climate Deal at COP26 - and seek solutions to link adaptation outcomes to Global Stocktake.

Finally, two other "work programs" will continue at COP28:one on mitigation, which will focus on how states can increase their emissions reduction efforts;the other on “just transition pathways”, i.e. how to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, while ensuring a “just transition” for people around the world.

Interactive:Who wants what at the COP28 climate change summit

Will COP28 be a Trojan horse for fossil fuels?

The decisions that will be taken on the elimination of fossil fuels will most likely determine the final judgments on COP28, considering, as mentioned, that the organizing country is an oil state and the presidency has been entrusted to the CEO of the state oil company.

In an interview with Guardian, the COP28 president, said a “robust roadmap” for cutting emissions by 2030 could be agreed, in line with scientific advice.But as we get closer to the start of the two weeks of negotiations, there has been growing talk that the unspoken goal is to use the climate conference as a Trojan horse to conclude new deals on oil and gas.A hypothesis that saw the indignant reaction of the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, as reported by theIndependent.Out of sight, writes Reuters, Sultan Al Jaber “hopes to sell the vision of a low-carbon future that includes, not avoids, fossil fuels.”

“This is not the first COP hosted by a fossil fuel producing country and it certainly won't be the last.Every state, even the big oil producers, have their role to play.What matters are the messages and signals that the incoming president is giving, which speak to the need for urgent action and to focus on how to accelerate the transition to a new decarbonized world,” observe the executive secretary of the UNFCCC, Simon Stiell, on Guardian.“It is important to recognize that the fossil fuel industry must be part of the solution.We know where the problems are.But to advance the conversation from that is that needs to be done to as it must be done, the fossil fuel industry must be an active participant and must demonstrate that it is serious about moving the world towards a zero-carbon economy”.

The crux of the matter is precisely this.In recent days, some documents obtained by the Center for Climate Reporting have been leaked first reported by BBC which show how, behind the scenes, Emirati officials have sought to use their position as organizers of the climate summit to push for oil and gas deals around the world.

🚨 BREAKING 🚨

COP28 president secretly used climate summit role to push oil trade with foreign government officials.

A major new investigation with @BBCJustinR based on internal COP28 documents obtained by CCR.https://t.co/wGHXRXvQlk

— Center for Climate Reporting (@ClimateReport_) November 27, 2023

The documents state that Adnoc (the state oil company of the United Arab Emirates, of which the COP28 president is CEO) is willing to convey to the representatives of Brazil, Mozambique, Canada and Australia the willingness to make agreements and "jointly evaluate the international opportunities for LNG”, liquefied natural gas, a fossil fuel that is a factor in global warming.

Experts say the documents show that the UAE is blurring the lines between its powerful role as host of the United Nations Climate Conference and its commercial interests as one of the world's largest oil and gas exporters.In the past, rotating presidents of UN climate summits have used their positions to promote infrastructure or renewable energy projects.But making new deals to produce more fossil fuels, which are unequivocally warming the planet to dangerous levels, is another matter.

“It's absolutely not normal,” he commented Kelly Gallagher, who has attended COP climate summits both as a US government official and as a non-profit representative.“Based on what I saw in the leaked documents, fears of a conflict of interest were well-founded.The president of a COP cannot try to negotiate no-strings-attached agreements on fossil fuels while trying to set the world on a path to net zero emissions.”

“At this point we might as well meet inside a real oil refinery,” adds Joseph Moeono-Kolio, consultant for the campaign for a “Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Fossil Fuels”.

These revelations risk making mutual trust among negotiators even more difficult and dashing hopes of an agreement on more ambitious goals before the summit even begins.

Some good news and what to do to stay on track

There is also some good news, Andrea Ghianda reports again on Ecco (here their podcast to follow COP28).According to analyzes by the Climate Analytics research center, if the current trend of clean technologies, in particular those linked to solar and wind energy, continues into 2024, 2023 could be the year of peak emissions.

Our analysis finds global GHG emissions could start to fall in 2024, if current clean technology trends continue.

That would make this year – 2023 – the year of peak emissions, and the moment we turn a corner towards our collective climate goals. pic.twitter.com/teddupg4tg

— Climate Analytics (@CA_Latest) November 22, 2023

Everything will depend on the speed of descent once the peak is passed.In view of COP28, the International Energy Agency (IEA) he underlined the crucial importance of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency to respect the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement.This proposal was also supported by a recent joint statement by the USA and China which reiterated "the need to triple renewable energy to replace energy from coal, oil and gas and achieve a significant reduction in absolute emissions from the energy sector" .

Tripling renewable energy, doubling energy efficiency and reducing methane emissions by 75% by 2030 would deliver 80% of the emissions cuts needed to keep global temperature increases to 1.5°C.The tripling of global renewable capacity is the “main driver” of emissions reductions by 2030, the IEA writes in its report.

In addition to the increase in renewables, IEA indicates four other pillars:doubling the rate of improvement in global energy efficiency by 2030;the 75% reduction of methane emissions resulting from the production of fossil fuels;the development of “innovative and large-scale financing mechanisms” to make these changes sustainable in developing countries;measures to ensure an “orderly decline in the use of fossil fuels”, such as a ban on new coal-fired power plants.

Obviously, achieving these goals requires significant effort at the national and international levels.The report identifies some policy priorities:standards for new appliances and buildings or bans on less efficient options;a reform of tax incentives and subsidies, including direct and indirect ones for fossil fuels;the redesign of the electricity market, recognizing the transition to systems based largely on renewable energy at zero marginal cost;the simplification of authorizations, in particular for wind, solar and electricity networks;greater efforts to maximize social benefits, through community benefit schemes and other measures.

The expansion of low-carbon energy sources also requires the rapid construction of new infrastructure:building faster electricity grids, developing greater energy storage and ensuring “smart” electrification.

At the same time, the IEA calls for abandoning carbon capture and storage technology as a solution to the climate crisis.“The industry must commit to truly helping the world meet its energy needs and climate goals – which means abandoning the illusion that implausibly large amounts of carbon capture are the solution,” he states the executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol.

The road is another:oil and gas companies need to invest more in clean energy.“Despite averaging $3.5 trillion in annual revenue since 2018, fossil fuel energy companies spend only 2.5% of their investments on renewables, which represents about 1% of total global spending for clean energy,” we read in the IEA report.“The current $800 billion invested annually in the global oil and gas sector could be halved by 2030 if the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is to be achieved.”

Data on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere

Preview image via The Bo Live