European elections 2024, green homes and a stop to polluting cars:what can happen (really) after the elections?

The two measures, highly contested in Italy, have been definitively approved.But it cannot be ruled out that the next EU Commission will decide to revise the texts.What the European clauses and Italian programs say

«Europe was born to guarantee peace and well-being And work, not to impose electric cars and green homes."It is the minister who pronounces this sentence Matteo Salvini, who recently spoke on a Radio Cusano Campus broadcast.If we look carefully, however, the secretary of the League is not the only Italian party leader who has railed against the two symbolic measures of thegreen agenda European.The stop to the sale of new polluting cars starting from 2035 and the revision objectives on the energy performance of buildings are undoubtedly two of the most contested European legislative dossiers in Italy.Both measures were adopted without the favorable vote of the government in Rome.Now that the European elections are upon us, there are parties that have put down on paper their desire to cancel, or at least review, the two laws.But how real is the possibility that the next European Parliament will really revisit the green homes directive and the car regulation?

The June vote

The short answer is that it depends on the outcome of the election.Most of the Green Deal dossiers were approved thanks to a rather large majority, which includes the centre-right EPP, the centre-left S&D, the liberals of Renew and (only in some cases) the Greens.The latest projections from Europe Elects seem to indicate that the composition of the next European Parliament should roughly follow the same balance of power we have witnessed in the last five years.The only real difference is the growth of right-wing political formations - the conservatives of Ecr (of which Fratelli d'Italia is part) and the extremists of I&D (of which Lega is part) - at the expense of a loss of consensus among the Greens.If theexploit of the European right were to exceed expectations, the center of gravity of the European Chamber could shift to the right, making a change of direction on the environmental and climate policies of the Green Deal which marked the five years of the European Commission led Ursula von der Leyen.

European programs and Italian programs

However, there is another factor to take into consideration.The perception that Italians have of the green homes directive and the car regulation is not the same as that of citizens of other European Union countries.To realize this, it is sufficient to compare the electoral programs of the Italian parties and those of the European political families of which they are part.The programmatic document of Forza Italia, for example, speaks of a "revision of the green housing directive" and of the need to protect the automotive sector from the "ideological follies supported by the left".Yet, both measures also passed with the favorable votes of some MEPs from the center-right of the EPP, of which Forza Italia itself is part.Unlike Forza Italia's programmatic document, the plan of the European People's Party does not mention the green housing directive even once, while on cars it simply says that "we need more technology, not bans".

A similar short circuit can also be seen in the plan of Action, which includes the request to «make the green homes directive more flexible».The same Carlo Calenda expressed some doubts regarding some provisions of the European green agenda in a event organized by Confcommercio:«The Green Deal as it stands doesn't work.If you respect sustainability you don't write stupid things", said the Action leader.If we look carefully, however, the regulation on the ban on polluting cars from 2035 sees Jan Huitema, a Dutch MEP from Renew, as rapporteur in the European Parliament, the same political family of which Action is part and which in its program does not include any reference to the need for review the Car Regulation or the Houses Directive.

As for the other Italian parties, Lega and Fratelli d'Italia are the political forces that most forcefully criticize the two Green Deal dossiers, but unlike Action and Forza Italia their position is perfectly in line with that of their families reference policies.In his plan, the party led by Matteo Salvini asks to «cancel the green homes directive» so as not to «sacrifice our real estate assets on the altar of energy efficiency».As regards cars, however, the League asks to "safeguard the future of the internal combustion engine by eliminating its ban from 2035".Brothers of Italy, like the League, voted against the two measures in the European Parliament.And in plan published in view of the European elections calls for «radically modifying the directive on green homes» and «cancelling the block on the production of internal combustion engine cars from 2035».

Among those in favor of the green homes directive and the ban on polluting cars are the Democratic Party, the 5 Star Movement and the Green-Left Alliance, who supported both measures in the European Parliament.The Democratic Party of Elly Schlein does not have its own program in view of the elections, but the manifest of the European Socialist Party - of which the Democratic Party is part - never explicitly mentions the two dossiers.The general line, in any case, is quite clear:«implement a Green Deal with a red heart, based on the alliance between social and ecological policies».The 5 Star Movement, which in its own, also stands in defense of the European green agenda plan welcomes the approval of the green homes directive and defines the transition towards electric mobility as "irreversible".The Greens-Left Alliance speaks of the need to "defend and strengthen the Green Deal" from attacks by "conservative political forces".As regards the efficiency of buildings, the plan of Avs calls for the establishment of a «European Fund for environmental and social investments of at least 2 trillion euros».

The commitment to 2030

Both the green homes directive and the car regulation have been definitively approved.This means that only the new European Commission could ask for a review of the two dossiers.«The composition of the European Parliament», specify a Open sources from the European Chamber, "has a clear impact on the content of the legislation that is adopted".In other words, if political forces critical of the Green Deal prevail in the June elections, it is not excluded that the two dossiers could be modified.In any case, the European Parliament points out, both measures are part of the Fit for 55, the package of laws through which the EU has committed to reducing its climate-changing emissions by 55% by 2030.This means that if the level of ambition on houses and cars is reduced, commitments should be strengthened "in other sectors, so that the EU can still achieve the set objectives".

The reconnaissance periods

Then there is another element to keep in mind.The final versions of the directive on green homes and the regulation on cars provide for a sort of reconnaissance moment to verify the actual possibility of achieving the objectives set.In the case of the directive on the energy efficiency of buildings, the European Commission is tasked with reviewing the provision in 2028, in light of the progress made by the various member states up to that point.The same will also happen with regards to the regulation on cars.In this case, the European Commission is tasked with drawing up a report every two years, starting from 2025, on the progress of the automotive sector in reducing emissions.

The e-fuels node

The regulation on cars is the legislative file on which the next European Parliament is most likely to intervene to introduce derogations or modifications.Already last year, the EU Commission announced its intention to present a proposal to exclude from the 2035 ban all those motor vehicles that use 100% e-fuels, i.e. synthetic or biological fuels.This is an exemption loudly requested by the Italian government, but contested by various environmental associations, convinced that the fuels in question are not truly sustainable.In the coming months, the EU executive will propose to exclude 100% powered vehicles e-fuels from the ban which will come into effect in 2035.If this proposal were to be rejected, European Parliament sources specify, "the Commission has said it will propose a revision of the entire regulation" on car emissions.

On the cover:The European Parliament in Strasbourg (Dreamstime/Ivan Katsarov)