Sweden and Denmark:“Nord Stream pipeline leaks likely caused by several hundred kilos of explosives.”What do we know so far and what are the consequences for the climate

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Nord Stream, according to the Swedish prosecutor's office, a group linked to a state was behind the sabotage of the gas pipeline

Update April 7, 2023: The Swedish prosecutor who is investigating the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline he stated that the "main scenario" prefigures that a "state actor" may be behind the attack, thus casting doubt on recent theories that hypothesized the responsibility of an independent group.

The type of explosive used in the attacks excludes a "large part of possible perpetrators", prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist told the Reuters.

According to a United Nations report, the three underwater explosions that severed the gas connection between Russia and Germany northeast and southeast of the Baltic Sea island of Bornholm on September 26, 2022 were equivalent to the power of several hundreds of kilograms of explosives.Swedish investigators found traces of explosives on several objects examined, but the type used has not yet been named.According to analysts' estimates, their power was equal to 400-500 kg of TNT or 300-350 kg of Semtex, a plastic explosive used for commercial explosions.

“This is a huge quantity of explosives and not something you might steal from a construction site or that a black market dealer might have in his garage,” comment al Guardian Göran Swistek, security specialist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

“Sabotage has obviously become an open arena for various influence attempts,” Ljungqvist added.“These speculations have no impact on the ongoing investigation which is based on the facts and information emerging from analysis, crime scene investigations and cooperation with the authorities in Sweden and other countries.”

Nord Stream pipeline explosion:the New York Times article and the Die Zeit investigation

Last March Die Zeit had published an investigation which hypothesized that a yacht belonging to a company headed by two Ukrainians would have been used for the sabotage and would have involved six people of uncertain nationality.It is precisely on the use of the yacht that the Swedish prosecutor's office is not convinced.“With such a quantity of explosives, it is difficult to conceive how they could have used only one yacht, which does not mean that the yacht did not play a support role,” explains Swistek again.

The Swedish prosecutor expressed doubts that his investigation could be conclusive.

Update December 22, 2022: Immediately after the explosions that seriously damaged the two Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, which connect Russia and Europe, and caused methane leaks in Swedish and Danish waters, practically all political leaders in Europe, the United States and Russia had advanced the sabotage hypothesis.However, no one had been able to identify those responsible.Poland and Ukraine had openly accused Russia, which in turn had accused the United States.Both Moscow and Washington had strongly denied their involvement.

After months of investigations, an article from Washington Post writes that numerous officials privately say that Russia may not be responsible for the leaks from the two pipelines.

“At this point there is no evidence that Russia is behind the sabotage,” a European official said, echoing the assessment of 23 diplomatic and intelligence officials from nine countries interviewed in recent weeks.Some have even gone so far as to say they don't think Russia is responsible.Others, who remain suspicious of Russia, said it will likely be impossible to establish with certainty who was responsible for the attack.In fact, no one doubts that it was an intentional attack.

There were no intercepted communications of Russian officials or military forces claiming credit for the attack or attempting to cover up their involvement, the officials said.Furthermore, given the relatively shallow depth of the damaged pipelines - around 80 meters at the site of an explosion - there could be several people responsible for the attack, perhaps through the use of submersible drones or the help of surface ships.The list of suspects, therefore, is not just limited to countries with manned submarines or deep-sea demolition expertise.

Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said his government was waiting for the country's independent prosecutor's office to complete its investigation into the explosions before reaching any conclusions.

Meanwhile, Sweden and Denmark stepped up naval patrols immediately after the attack, while Norway, which has 9,000 kilometers of undersea gas pipelines to Europe, is trying to strengthen the security of its critical infrastructure, with the collaboration of Britain , France and Germany.

Update October 21, 2022: According to the Danish police, “powerful explosions” caused the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines to rupture in four places in late September.However, Danish authorities refused to say who might have provoked them.

In a video shot by a drone from a Norwegian robotics company, published by the Swedish newspaper Expressen, it is possible to see the breaking of more than 50 meters of one of the steel and concrete pipes of Nord Stream 1.

“On the seabed where the pipes were located you can see broken objects that look like pieces of pipes,” Trond Larsen, the drone operator, told Expressen."We searched the area with the camera, but could not find the other end of the pipe."

The images, which could not be independently verified, show two distinct lines, with a gap between them.“It takes extreme force to bend such thick metal the way we see it,” Larsen added.

Immediately after the methane leaks from the two gas pipelines, the hypothesis of sabotage was put forward by practically all political leaders in Europe, the United States and Russia.However, no one has produced evidence capable of identifying those responsible and how the explosions occurred.Poland and Ukraine openly accused Russia, which in turn accused the United States.Both Moscow and Washington have strongly denied their involvement.

In the past few days have been detected four separate leaks on the offshore lines of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines connecting Russia and Europe.This is unprecedented damage, said the operator himself.Russia has not ruled out that it could be sabotage, a hypothesis also taken into consideration by some European countries and by Ukraine which has accused Moscow.Subsequently Sweden and Denmark they sent a joint letter to the United Nations Security Council arguing that land pipeline leaks were likely caused by "at least two detonations" with "several hundred kilos" of explosives.

Nord Stream is a 1,224 km long underwater gas pipeline, made up of two parallel pipelines.It starts from Vyborg, Russia, and arrives in Greifswald, Germany, where it connects to the German onshore network and the rest of Europe.It can transport 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, an amount capable of satisfying the annual gas demand of over 26 million families, as reports The Corriere della Sera.

In August, Russian gas giant Gazprom shut down Nord Stream 1 after months of operating at reduced capacity.The closure was officially motivated by the need to carry out maintenance work, although some countries think it is Russia's retaliation in response to European Union sanctions for the war in Ukraine.Nord Stream 2, on the other hand, never came into operation despite its construction being completed about a year ago.

What happened? On the night of September 26, the operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline reported a sudden drop in pressure, suggesting a leak.Hours later, Nord Stream AG, the operator of the undersea pipeline connecting Russia to Germany, said it was investigating a pressure drop in Nord Stream 1.

At the same time, the Swedish Maritime Authority said it had reported two leaks in Nord Stream 1 in Swedish and Danish waters, while the Danish Armed Forces released a video showing bubbles rising to the surface in the Baltic Sea, above gas pipelines, and stated that the gas leak caused a surface alteration of more than a kilometer in diameter.

The Swedish national seismic network then announced that it had detected two explosions in the area affected by the gas leak which affected the pipeline, and one of the two had a magnitude of 2.3 degrees and was recorded in 30 measuring stations in southern Sweden.The first explosion was recorded at 2.03 am and the second at 7.04 pm on Monday.

Two leaks on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline were detected in an area northeast of the Danish island of Bornholm and are located in Denmark's exclusive economic zone.Two more in the Swedish one, as stated by the Swedish Coast Guard.Danish authorities have asked ships to steer clear of a five-nautical-mile radius off Bornholm after the loss of Nord Stream 2.Both pipelines still contain gas under pressure.

What caused the losses? It's not clear yet.Analysts and experts say losses of this type are very rare.“It is an unprecedented situation,” explains to Al Jazeera Kathryn Porter, energy consultant at Watt-Logic, an independent energy consultancy based in the UK.“Pipes usually fail due to corrosion, but the Nord Stream 2 is a brand new pipe.One might think of some construction problem, such as faulty welding, but on the other hand there are problems with Nord Stream 1, which has been in operation since 2012.It is very difficult to find a rational explanation for what happened." Initially there were three hypotheses - there was talk of technical malfunctions, poor maintenance or sabotage - but sabotage is becoming increasingly more likely.

The investigation accusing the United States of sabotaging the Nord Stream is full of water on all sides

The latter hypothesis has not been ruled out by Russia, the Polish Prime Minister and the Danish President, Mette Frederiksen.“The authorities believe these are deliberate actions.Not an accident." he declared Frederiksen. "Based on the information we have collected and from contacts with Denmark, we have concluded that this is probably a deliberate act, that is, an act of sabotage", added Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, without however indicating who was responsible.Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod spoke of an "unprecedented" attack.

“No option can be ruled out at this time,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a conference call with journalists, responding to a question about whether sabotage was possible.Peskov added that the Kremlin is "very concerned" about the situation which requires "an urgent investigation" because it is an energy security issue for "the entire continent".

“The gas leak from Nord Stream 1 is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression against the EU.Russia wants to destabilize the economic situation in Europe and cause pre-winter panic,” Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, commented on Twitter.

Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, he said instead that the incident “occurred in the waters of countries under the complete control of the US intelligence services,” the state news agency Tass reported.Russian sources have repeatedly referred to the words of Joe Biden and his administration earlier this year, when the United States and Germany threatened that Nord Stream 2 would not be opened if Russia invaded Ukraine.State Department spokesman Ned Price said in January:"I want to be very clear:if Russia invades Ukraine one way or another, Nord Stream 2 will not go forward.I won't go into details.We will work with Germany to ensure it does not go ahead."A few days later, on February 8, at a joint press event with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Biden said that the pipeline project would be stopped if Russia put troops on the ground in Ukraine.It should be noted that Nord Stream 2 it never came into operation.Meanwhile, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said in a tweet that he had spoken to his Danish counterpart "about the alleged sabotage", adding that:“The United States is supporting the investigation and we will continue to work to safeguard Europe's energy security.”

The European Commission has stated that it is premature to speculate.The President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen wrote in a tweet that she had spoken with the Danish Prime Minister:«It is essential now to investigate incidents, to obtain full clarity on the events and why.Any deliberate disruption of active European energy infrastructure is unacceptable and will lead to the strongest possible response."The High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security of the European Union he stated in an official statement that the incidents "are not a coincidence" and "all available information indicates that these losses are the result of a deliberate act.We will support any investigation to gain full clarity on what happened and why, and we will take further steps to increase our resilience in energy security."

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg he warned from reaching hasty conclusions and invited to analyze everything in detail.

British sources said they believe it is not possible to determine with certainty what happened, writes The Guardian.A British insider speculated that the explosions were unlikely to have been caused by a submarine or underwater vehicle, because their presence would have been detected in the relatively shallow waters of the Baltic.The sections of the gas pipelines are between 80 and 110 meters deep.An alternative scenario could be that mines were dropped from a fake commercial vessel days or weeks before the attack and then detonated remotely.But this last scenario is entirely hypothetical, explains the British newspaper.

Nord Stream pipeline explosion:the New York Times article and the Die Zeit investigation

Who will conduct the investigation? Regarding the Nord Stream 2 leak, the head of the Danish Energy Agency, Kristoffer Bottzauw, told Reuters that it is too early to say who will lead the investigation and that no one has yet examined the pipeline, while the Swedish Prime Minister said that the Swedish Armed Forces, Coast Guard and Maritime Administration and other relevant authorities are taking the necessary measures.Germany also announced coordinated action between police, local officials and the energy agency.

What are the impacts? Gas leaks from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in the Baltic Sea will continue for several days, perhaps even a week, the Danish Energy Authority said.According to authorities, the incidents have no consequences for the safety or health of residents of the nearby Danish islands of Bornholm and Christianso.“We have information that an exclusion zone has been adopted around one of the leaks,” he added, referring to Denmark, which has instituted a navigation ban within a 9 kilometer radius near the island of Bornholm, where it is one of the leaks is underway,” the European Commission announced.

Nord Stream pipelines are unlikely to be able to transport gas to Europe this winter, even if there was political will to put them into operation, they said Eurasia Group analysts.“Depending on the extent of the damage, losses could even result in the permanent closure of both lines,” wrote analysts Henning Gloystein and Jason Bush.

It is not immediately clear who could benefit from the ruptures of the gas pipelines, which were not in operation, writes The New York Times.At the moment the impacts from the point of view of energy supply are practically nil.Nord Stream 2 never started while Nord Stream 1 has been closed for weeks.Actually, writes The Corriere della Sera, “even when it was fully operational, it had only a minimal impact, because a good part of the gas arriving from the Tarvisio hub always passed through Ukraine.After that, the decision on which food flow, whether through Nord Stream or through Ukraine, lies with Gazprom, while almost all the gas arriving in Germany came from Nord Stream 1.However, it must be taken into account that the EU network is interconnected.Currently Russian gas affects Italian gas supplies by less than 10%".

Second Anders Puck Nielsen, researcher at the Center for Maritime Operations at the Royal Danish Defense College, perhaps someone tried “to send a signal that something might happen to Norwegian gas.I believe that basically only one player can actually benefit from greater chaos on the gas market in Europe at the moment, and that is Russia." According to analysts, reports Financial Times, sabotage of an active pipeline, such as that between Norway and the Mainland or the United Kingdom, constitutes the worst-case scenario.Oslo has raised the safety level of its oil and gas facilities, amid widespread concern in Norway.The Nord Stream accident occurred on the day that Poland, Norway and Denmark inaugurated a gas pipeline that will allow Warsaw to become completely independent from Russian deliveries, highlight The Sun 24 Hours.

There could be consequences for the climate. The extent of the leaks is not yet clear, but scientists' rough estimates, based on the volume of gas reported in one of the pipelines, range between 100,000 and 350,000 tons of methane."We know there are three explosions, but we don't know if there are three holes in the sides of the pipe or how big the breaks are," he said al Guardian Jasmin Cooper, research associate in the chemical engineering department at Imperial College London.“It's hard to know how much is reaching the surface.But this is potentially hundreds of thousands of tons of methane:a rather large volume that is pumped into the atmosphere."

According to Joe von Fischer of Colorado State University, the effect of the leaks on atmospheric methane levels may be small because the methane turns into carbon dioxide, which is less potent as a greenhouse gas, as it rises through the water: “When methane is released to the bottom of a deep body of water, almost all of it is oxidized by methanotrophic bacteria present in the water column,” explains to New Scientist.

For Grant Allen of the University of Manchester in the United Kingdom, however, the quantity of rising gas will determine the severity of the leaks:“My intuition – and I stress that it is only an intuition – is that these leaks can create a column of bubbles rising to the surface so pure and so intense that nature will not have a chance to act on it.”Allen estimates that the contents of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could create methane emissions equivalent to those produced by 124,000 average UK homes each year.“The significant pressure drop that has already occurred in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline raises fears that this is a major accident and that significant quantities of the dangerous greenhouse gas methane have already leaked into the Baltic Sea,” he adds Sascha Müller-Kraenner, federal director of the NGO Environmental Action Germany.“It has the potential to be one of the largest gas leaks,” Cooper adds.

There was no shortage of effects on the markets.The price on the EU gas reference market TTF rose by 17% at around 205 euros per megawatt hour, still far below the August peak of 346 euros per MWh.“Prices increased slightly this morning.There are leaks on two pipelines that were not working and I think it's fair to say that the market was not expecting them to start working again anytime soon.So I think the impact will be quite limited,” said Stefan Ulrich, senior associate for European gas at Bloomberg.

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, proposed a new set of sanctions against Russia, including a cap on the price of Russian oil and further restrictions on high-tech trade.An EU official told Reuters that agreement on the next package of sanctions against Russia could come before next week's European Union summit.

Pacific countries are rich in critical minerals but risk paying a huge price for their extraction

One of the underestimated aspects of the transition towards "clean" forms of energy production and supply is that of the social and environmental costs of the extraction of raw materials.This is the case of the Pacific States which are facing a double threat:climate change and consequences of the interests of the extractive industries.

On the one hand, rising sea levels, more powerful cyclones and drought they threaten coastal countries, on the other hand, with the increase in global demand for critical minerals, also increases the pressure for greater extraction from the lands and seabed of the Pacific in exchange for royalties and the prospect of economic income.

Beneath New Caledonia's soil lies between 10 and 30 percent of the world's known reserves of nickel, a key component of the lithium-ion batteries that will power electric cars and stabilize grids powered by renewables.In Papua New Guinea and Fiji there are vast undeveloped copper reserves.Furthermore, it is estimated that there are several times higher quantities of cobalt in the Pacific seabed than in other regions of the world.

All this has attracted the sights of Australian, Chinese and other extractive companies.But, they write on The Conversation Nick Bainton (University of Queensland, Australia) and Emilka Skrzypek (University of St.Andrews, Scotland), which they conducted research in this regard, if the social and environmental costs of extraction are not addressed, the ecological transition will not be fair and will risk exacerbating historical tensions, as in Solomon Islands or in the Bougainvillea region in Papua New Guinea.

There is no agreement among Pacific leaders.At the forum last July was approved a new 30-year strategy that declares the urgent need for action on the climate and calls for careful management of the region's natural resources to stimulate socio-economic growth and improve the lives of citizens.At the same time, however, the Federated States of Micronesia joined Samoa, Fiji and Palau in calling for a moratorium on deep-sea mining, while Nauru, Tonga, Kiribati and the Cook Islands they have already supported seabed extraction projects.In February this year, the Cook Islands they conceded three licenses for exploration manganese nodules in the seas on which they have exclusive economic rights.It is estimated that at the bottom of the ocean there are reserves equal to 8.9 billion tons worth approximately 15 trillion dollars.It is the largest and richest known resource of polymetallic nodules within a sovereign territory and a massive share of the world's currently known cobalt resources.

Brazil, a possible election of Lula could reduce deforestation in the Amazon by 89%.

What is considered the most important climate election of the year will be held in Brazil on October 2nd.Second an analysis conducted for Carbon Brief by researchers from the University of Oxford and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis, the re-election of the outgoing president Bolsonaro could mean the failure to apply the Forestry Code, continually ignored under the administration of the last Carioca president, and high levels of Amazon deforestation in the coming years.If, however, with Lula's election, there were full implementation of the Forestry Code, deforestation in the Amazon could decrease by 89% by 2030, with a significant reduction in Brazil's emissions.

When Lula was president, between 2003 and 2010, the improvement of satellite monitoring systems, the definition of new protected areas and greater enforcement of the Forestry Code led to a drastic decrease in deforestation.

 

The experts with whom Carbon Brief spoke are confident that Lula will work to enforce environmental laws that have been neglected over the past four years.However, they noted that it will not be an easy task to eradicate the illegal logging activities that have been rampant during Bolsonaro's presidency.

Easyjet will start using sustainable aviation fuel from December 2022

Airlines EasyJet will stop offsetting carbon dioxide emissions from December, instead using “sustainable aviation fuel, more fuel-efficient aircraft and carbon capture” to meet its goal of zero emissions by 2050, reports The Guardian. 

The airline signed a three-year contract at the end of 2019 to offset all its CO emissions2 - a decision that at the time was said to cost the company almost 30 million euros a year and considered by some to be greenwashing.

Last year, a joint investigation of the Guardian with Unearthed, the investigative arm of Greenpeace, he revealed that major airlines, including easyJet, were using unreliable “ghost” carbon credits to claim their flights were carbon neutral.According to the logic of compensation, CO emissions2 produced by flights are theoretically canceled by paying to stop emissions elsewhere, such as those resulting from deforestation.

EasyJet said it would no longer pay compensation for bookings made after December, but did not disclose the sums paid so far for the controversial compensation.

Chief Executive Johan Lundgren said the money will be invested in new technologies, ranging from more fuel-efficient planes to a switch to greener fuels and an as-yet-unproven technology that uses hydrogen to power planes , writes The Financial Times.This is expected to reduce its emissions by 78% by 2050, while the remaining 22% should be cut using carbon capture technology.

Updates

Update October 1, 2022: We have updated the title of the article [constantly updated] in light of further developments.The previous title was:"Poor maintenance or Russian sabotage?What do we know about the Nord Stream pipeline leaks and what consequences for the climate".

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