COP28 is underway, leading to the climate conference that begins today in Dubai

Protagonists (few), themes and controversies (many) of the event which will be hosted by the United Arab Emirates until 12 December

Between low expectations, controversies and divisions, Cop28 opens today in Dubai, the United Nations conference which every year brings governments from all over the world to the same table to discuss how to face the challenge of climate change.This year's edition is subject to several controversies, starting from the choice of the host country.The United Arab Emirates is in fact not only the seventh largest oil exporter in the world, but also among the few countries that aim to increase their production over the next decade.Having said that, there are several topics that will end up on the COP28 table:from the acceleration of energy policies to the fund for developing countries, passing through the unknown of nuclear fusion.Here is a guide with everything you need to know to best navigate the events, speeches and negotiations of the next two weeks.

Who is there and who isn't there

The Cop28 in Dubai will take place from 30 November to 12 December and is essentially divided into three phases.The first part is the so-called "high-level segment" (1 and 2 December) in which there will be speeches by the heads of state and government.From 3 to 10 December the Emirati presidency organized a series of days, each dedicated to a particular theme:climate finance, energy transition, transport, agriculture and more.Finally, the last two days will see the final rush of negotiations to find an agreement on the final and unanimous declaration of all participating countries.Among the most awaited important names at Cop28 was also that of Pope Francis.The Pontiff had prepared a speech to deliver in the opening days of the conference, but the Vatican doctors - concerned about his health conditions - advised him to give up the trip.Even without Pope Francis, it will be the first time the Holy See will participate in climate negotiations.The big absentee from COP28 is the American president Joe Biden, who decided to stay in the United States and let his special climate envoy John Kerry carry out the negotiations.All the leaders of the European Union were present, including the prime minister for Italy Giorgia Meloni and the Minister of the Environment Gilberto Pichetto.The Brazilian president confirmed his presence for the Brics Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the Indian one Narendra Modi, while they will be absent Xi Jinping And Vladimir Putin.Overall, over 140 heads of state and government are expected in Dubai in the coming days.Among them there is also a king Charles III of England, who has always shown himself attentive to environmental and climate issues.

Conflicts of interest and credibility issues

The controversies that have surrounded this year's edition for months have as their main target Sultan Al-Jaber, president of Cop28 but also CEO of Adnoc, Abu Dhabi's public oil giant.A double role that many point to as a clear conflict of interest.A dossier relaunched in recent days by BBC it also seems to suggest that Al-Jaber would have taken advantage of his position as president of Cop28 to initiate business with government delegations of foreign countries regarding fossil fuels.“If the accusations are true, it is a real scandal,” commented Greenpeace.The response from the Cop28 presidency was blunt, according to which the documents released by the BBC they would be "inaccurate" and would have "never been used in the meetings" preparing for the conference.Then there is the question of how the UAE deals with dissent.In fact, protests are prohibited in the country.Already in August, the UN assured that there will be spaces where activists can gather and make their voices heard.But Human Rights Watch reports that "it is unclear how they will be able to do this safely and in a politically meaningful way in a country like the Emirates, where civic spaces are closed, there are severe restrictions on freedom of expression and peaceful dissent is criminalized."

The two new features of Cop28

There are two new aspects of COP28 in Dubai.The first is the debut of the "Global Stocktake", a sort of global inventory to measure the progress made by each country.«This is the first overall exercise to review climate commitment, in which the effects of the policies adopted by different governments are measured», explains Jacopo Bencini, policy advisor of the Italian Climate Network.Global Stocktake is a tool created during the 2015 Paris Agreement and the first round of control and verification will take place at COP28 in Dubai.The second novelty of the Emirates conference is that for the first time we will talk not only about the climate, but also about the impact of climate change on global health.In fact, hundreds of health ministers are expected at the Dubai summit.According to research carried out by Ipsos for Amref Italia, and published today, 90% of Italians believe that climate change represents a serious threat to the entire world, especially for the global health of individuals.For almost one in two Italians (46%) the increase in heat waves and rising temperatures is the main reason for concern.This is followed by an increase in drought (considered a problem by 44%), a decrease in food availability due to impacts on agriculture (37%) and an increase in floods (33%).

What can you expect from the negotiations

As with any other COP, the negotiations on the final declaration will be the real focus of the Dubai conference.Here are the different areas on which world leaders will discuss to try to reach an agreement.

A pact for renewables

The front on which the most ambitious announcement is expected is that of renewables.In a joint document, the UAE Presidency of COP28, the International Renewable Energy Agency and the Global Renewables Alliance urged governments to triple the renewable energy capacity to be installed by 2030.An ambitious but definitely within reach goal, which seems to have already received the approval of both Xi Jinping's China and Joe Biden's United States.

The Loss&Damage fund

Another area in which an important step forward awaits us is the so-called Loss & Damage, the fund to compensate for the losses and damages suffered by the countries that contribute least to global warming but which suffer the worst consequences.COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh ended with a agreement surprise for the adoption of this fund, but its operation and starting date still remain to be defined.Among developed countries, it is China's position that creates some discontent.«The UN methodology – explains Federico Tassan-Viol, analyst at the ECCO think tank – has not been updated for some time, also for political reasons.China is still considered a developing country, but it has global ambitions and in many cases its influence has surpassed that of the West."At the moment, the draft agreement on the compensation fund envisages that the World Bank will act as an intermediary for the negotiations and establish the timing of distribution of the fund's resources.A mechanism that leaves the countries of the global South dissatisfied, who consider the World Bank too close to the United States.

The (almost) impossible agreement on the phase-out of fossil fuels

Expectations on a possible agreement on phase out of fossil fuels, i.e. on their gradual elimination, are decidedly low.«The United Arab Emirates has no intention of giving in on this:there will be no total exit from fossil fuels by a certain date", comments Bencini.Already last year, at the Sharm El-Sheikh conference, we started talking about phase down.In other words:not a complete elimination of fossil fuels, but simply a gradual reduction in their use.According to the Italian Climate Network policy advisor, the Emirates presidency of Cop28 needs to make a good impression at an international level, but will not make any concessions on this front.«The decision to host a Cop is always part of a strategy to relaunch the country's image – observes Bencini -.We can expect many announcements from the Emirati presidency on other fronts:renewables, loss and damage, climate finance.But not on fossil fuels."

The nuclear unknown

One of the biggest unknowns of COP28 concerns nuclear power.In recent years, the number of countries that have expressed their interest in atomic energy has grown.Recently, Italy has also been added to this list, with Minister Pichetto intending to reiterate the government's position also at the Dubai conference.The big surprise, however, could come from the United States.According to the news agency Reuters, climate envoy John Kerry would be ready to unveil at Cop28 the first international strategy to commercialize energy produced by nuclear fusion.

The role of Italy

Italy, like all other EU states, has delegated its negotiating position to the European Union for the actual negotiations.Yet, Tassan-Viol argues, our country may have a lot to say during the Dubai conference.«Italy can act as a bridge between the global North and South and can play an important role in bilateral negotiations with the countries of Africa and South America», explains the expert.Almost certainly, adds Tassan-Viol, «Meloni's speech will concern the Mattei Plan and the government's strategy for Africa».What remains to be seen is whether the agreements envisaged by this strategy "will concern usual paradigms, such as the extraction of gas and other fossil sources, or whether they will focus on the development of renewables and the sustainable extraction of critical raw materials".Bencini is more critical, according to whom Italy's position at Cop28 will be "more fossilized than a few years ago", as confirmed by the government's plan to transform Italy into the new "European gas hub".Making our country's role at the Dubai conference even more important is the fact that from January 2024 Italy will also assume the rotating presidency of the G7.

On the cover:Graphic design by Vincenzo Monaco