National Energy and Climate Plan:the future of energy according to the Meloni government is a return to the past

PNIEC, RePowerEu, Mattei plan:for Italy, the summer of 2023 could be remembered as the season in which the energy of the future was designed.First there pandemic and then there gas price crisis, the war in Ukraine and a sharp increase in inflation have made a systemic update of the Italian energy model necessary.This complex historical period must then be accompanied by new environmental objectives sanctioned by the European Union in recent years, who wants to place himself at the head of the ecological transition. 

Thus the Meloni government found itself having to prepare, since its inauguration in October 2022, a series of plans and projects with which to adapt to the new balances between now and 2030, with the aim of achieving climate neutrality by 2050.

“The ecological transition and environmental sustainability must go hand in hand with social and economic sustainability”, he reiterated recently the Prime Minister at the Assolombarda assembly to reassure the business world.A warning repeated several times in recent months (and using the same words) by various government representatives - from the Minister of Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso, to the Minister of the Environment, Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, from the Minister of Infrastructure, Matteo Salvini, to the Minister of European Affairs, Raffaele Fitto.And energy is precisely the largest and most important sector to analyze to understand the vision put forward by the government.A vision in which the near future is built through the conservation of the present.This can be seen from the three tools expected by autumn and currently being drafted:The Integrated National Plan for Energy and Climate (PNIEC), the changes to the PNRR in light of the REPower Eu and the Mattei Plan.

Where are we at with the National Integrated Plan for Energy and Climate?

The National Integrated Plan for Energy and Climate is the document with which the Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security intends to achieve the climate objectives for 2030.The latest version of the PNIEC dates back to 2019 (it was then published at the beginning of 2020):in the meantime, however, through the Fit for 55 reform package the European Union has established a reduction in emissions by 2030 of 55% compared to 1990 levels.An update of the plan was therefore needed, but how remember Luisiana Gaita on The Daily Fact:

Incidentally, the Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security (Mase) never sent it 'in time' to Brussels, given that it still does not appear on the EU Commission website.In fact, by the fateful date of June 30, only a 24-page executive summary was sent.In the meantime, there are several versions of the full document circulating in recent days:415 pages which, at this point, should be sent by the end of July.Only then will there be official status and the process will begin that will lead to the definitive approval of the new text by June 2024.Ergo:It is unlikely that the Mase plan, which will be the subject of the Strategic Environmental Assessment (VAS) in the coming months, is already "under consideration by Europe".

We too Blue suitcase we will refer, here, to the 415-page draft that was widespread primarily from the Staffetta Quotidiana e agency surrender then accessible on the site QualEnergia.Beyond the little mystery about the final draft - on June 30th the ministry has announced of having "sent the proposed Plan to Brussels", while on 4 July Minister Fratin himself at the Legambiente Ecoforum spoke of "presentation summary" with the final document which "is in a drafting phase" - MASE has not denied the document which has been circulating for a few days and which we will analyze.It is difficult to do this, especially because it extensively contains the announcements made several times in recent months.

The all-Italian odyssey of the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan

In the PNIEC update, the ministry carried out a survey of the main energy and emission indicators for 2021 and indicated a forecast for 2030, defining a trend scenario net of the policies currently in force.It is enough to analyze the main data on energy sources to realize that the government's proposal is not at all ambitious:there are those who have it judged with the “handbrake on”, Who a "gift to the gas companies", but it would be enough to quote the words of Minister Fratin who has it defined “realistic and not unrealistic”.Moreover:taking advantage of the energy shocks of recent years, the current PNIEC proposes a step backwards compared to the already criticized 2019 version, accusing it of "excessive optimism", and throws its heart over the obstacle only in the areas of interest to Eni, such as biofuels and the capture and storage of CO2 (we'll come back to it).

Let's start from coal, the “oldest” (in use) and most polluting fossil fuel.The 2019 PNIEC indicated its phase-out (gradual elimination) by 2025.To this trial, which had already been questioned from the Draghi government to the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February 2022, the Meloni government version dedicates an entire paragraph.The currently operating coal power plants (Civitavecchia, Brindisi, Monfalcone, Sulcis, Fiumesanto) still provide an important contribution to the generation of electricity - a total of 5.5 gigawatts of which 1 gigawatt is in Sardinia.

This is why the ministry admits that "net of the aspects related to maximization, the actions already implemented and planned would still be adequate to allow the phase-out of the coal plants still in operation on the Continent";for the plants in Sardinia, however, the decommissioning limit is moved to 2028.And that's not all:the availability for the definitive decommissioning of coal plants will however be confirmed in the coming months, in the sense that the ministry indicates a series of conditions that will have to occur (from the expected strengthening of the electricity grid to the absence of decommissioning of gas generation plants until the absence of reductions in energy imports, such as from France and the generation of electricity from nuclear power plants).

Against European indications, our energy mix is ​​still based on gas and oil

If coal promises to resist, things are even better for petroleum products which, according to the PNIEC, "although characterized by a decreasing demand by 2030, will still represent a significant share of the total national energy requirement, in particular in the transport and petrochemical sectors".If it is true that petroleum derivatives (petrol, kerosene, diesel) "still represent the source of energy that satisfies over 80% of the energy demand of the transport sector, with peaks close to 100% in heavy road transport, in maritime and aviation sectors", the ministry document limits itself to noting that "the demand for these products in the aforementioned sectors is destined to reduce in the perspective of 2030", although without indicating precise quotas.Indeed, "since the national refining capacity is greater than the internal demand for petroleum products, Italy, in addition to being self-sufficient in terms of finished products, is also a country that exports significant quantities of finished products".

It can be deduced, therefore, that the oil era, at least for the Italian government, also shows no signs of running out.Even the thirty-year refining crisis, which the government itself recognizes in the PNIEC, becomes an opportunity to reiterate its support for fossil fuel companies:

The refining crisis has led, in Italy, to the reconversion of five important refineries:Mantua, Rome and Cremona have been converted into logistics hubs, while Marghera and Gela have been converted into biorefineries.The conversion of the two refineries ensures a current production of biofuels of over 750,000 tonnes which, in the future, will reach 1.1 million tonnes, especially of advanced biofuels.In this sector, Italy boasts an important technological leadership at an international level and the future transformations of Italian refineries will be based on this basis.

That of biofuels, like we have already talked about, is a crucial match for the Italian government.It is even more so in the PNIEC, where it is even expected (one of the rare cases) to exceed the objectives set by the European Union:according to the nascent RED III directive, the share of second generation biofuels should be equal to 5.5% by 2030 for member states while Italy expects to reach the share of 10% (almost double).

This is a clear assist to ENI, owner of the two biorefineries in Porto Marghera and Gela and in the process of converting the one in Livorno as well.Not even the only one, to be honest.In fact, it is on the gas front that the PNIEC reveals the conservatism of the entire system.Relying entirely on the two big names in the sector, namely ENI and Snam.Again on Blue suitcase we had already addressed the topic, analyzing the intent to make the peninsula the so-called "gas hub".An intent which in the PNIEC is described as follows:

The strengthening of existing infrastructure and the development of new natural gas import initiatives will allow Italy to diversify its supply sources and potentially make new resources available for the benefit of other European countries.To this end we are proceeding:

‐ to increase transport capacity from entry points in southern Italy through the creation of the "Adriatic Line";

‐ to create the conditions for the strengthening of the southern corridor via TAP, favoring an increase in capacity from the supply route from Azerbaijan, also through the construction of the Matagiola Massafra methane pipeline;

‐ to optimize the use of LNG import capacity in existing terminals and to develop new regasification capacity, which will continue to have a strategic role in promoting Italy's participation in the Mediterranean and global LNG market in competition with northern terminals Europe.The initiatives described above will lead the Italian system to become a reference for many EU member states and other neighboring third countries.

To summarize:for 2030, Italy aims to keep the national gas pipeline network unchanged, upgrade the TAP, build the Adriatic Line between Abruzzo and Umbria, upgrade the three existing regasifiers, make the most of the new Piombino regasifier and build another one in Ravenna.In short, for gas, a further increase in investments is expected in the coming years.Quite the opposite of current trends and what bodies such as the International Energy Agency and the IPCC have long been asking for.

Even the hoped-for increase in renewable energy in the electricity sector, deemed “insufficient” by the climate think tank ECCO and far from engagements adopted during the recent G7 in Japan, is associated with the development of gas, instead of opting for the logic of substitution or, at least, for the reversal of the balance of power.For the PNIEC, in fact, gas "will continue to play an indispensable role for the national energy system during the transition period and could become the cornerstone of the hybrid electricity-gas energy system, also in light of the development of the available volumes of renewable gas ( biomethane, bioLPG, bioLNG, renewable dimethyl ether, hydrogen and synthetic methane) and the push for the diffusion of alternative fuels and fuels in the energy sectors, including the transport sector".That is, it is the revival of the theory of gas as a transition fuel, so dear to fossil fuel companies.

Up to this point we have seen how the PNIEC designs the strengthening of the existing.As regards the development of new supply chains, new technological areas and new lines of action, a list has been drawn up:

• electricity storage (innovative accumulators);
• renewable sources (solar, geothermal, other onshore and offshore renewables)
• hydrogen;
• renewable fuels other than hydrogen;
• nuclear;
• CO2 capture, use and storage (CCUS);
• network technologies and digitalisation;
• critical raw materials and advanced materials for the energy transition and related national supply chains

What is surprising in this case is the considerable interest in CCUS, a technology that has been discussed for several decades, with results that are nothing short of modest, and which is promoted by fossil fuel companies.It is the PNIEC itself that puts it in black and white:

In Italy, the first authorization was recently issued to Eni to carry out an experimental program - called "CCS Ravenna Phase 1" - for the capture, transport and geological storage of carbon dioxide coming from the Eni power plant in Casalborsetti (RA), in the storage complex identified within an offshore hydrocarbon gas cultivation area.The realization of the "Ravenna project" could represent a first step for the replication of similar initiatives in exhausted deposits.In this perspective, Italy has shared with France and Greece the desire to promote cross-border cooperation on the topic of capture, transport and storage of CO2, through the development of common projects and the elaboration of common plans for joint management cross-border of CCS.Requests for collaboration were received from companies in the sector, operating in Italian, French and Greek territory, with candidate projects for inclusion in the Union's list of projects of common interest (PCI), pursuant to the TEN-E Regulation 2022/869, in the thematic area of ​​cross-border carbon dioxide (CO2) transport and storage networks.The Italian potential in this sector is notable, being able to count on a vast network of exhausted or close to exhausted gas fields, especially in the offshore Adriatic, which could be converted to CO2 storage with the use of most of the existing infrastructures (production platforms, sealines and wells), allowing geological storage costs to be significantly lowered.

After the gas hub, the Co2 hub?Between conditional and potential verbs to be verified, what is certain is that the Italy of 2030 is very similar to the current one.

REPowerEu and Mattei plan

If, after delays and requests, it was possible to at least consult a draft on the PNIEC - albeit not released by the government and not even discussed in Parliament - on REPower Eu and the Mattei plan we must rely on declarations, previews and background information.In theory, something more is known about REPowerEu.The European Commission does describes as the “response to the difficulties and disruptions in the world energy market caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine”.Launched in May 2022, the plan aims to save energy, produce clean energy and diversify supply through an economic investment by the European Union of almost 300 billion euros, of which around 72 billion euros are grants and around 225 billion of euros are loans.

In this sense, Italy is a special observer because it will also have to modify the PNRR in light of the REPowerEu.Second IlSole24ore the Meloni government will be able to count on an additional 2.7 billion for REPowerEU but in exchange for new measures and new investments.As is known, the Meloni government is in trouble on the implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan and for some time meditate to move some Recovery Plan funds to energy projects, as requested by REPowerEu.Except that very little is known about these projects at the moment:only that they must be submitted to the European Commission by 31 August.At the end of June the Courier he wrote That:

In more detail, the Plan that the government has discussed with some large publicly held companies, which could contain large-scale projects by large players such as Snam, Terna, Eni and Enel, could ultimately in some way "host" if so it can be said, the funds that would not be spent within the natural expiry of the Pnrr.In this way, Repower-Eu, which can already add other funds (of the Cohesion Plans) calculated from 3 to 6 billion euros to the 2.7 billion foreseen, and therefore reach a total of 9 billion, could easily exceed 10 .Although the government's target seems much higher.

Once again, therefore, the lion's share will be exercised by large companies and their great projects lowered from above.Without real territorial involvement, without adequate transparency, without even imagining a (finally) decentralized and widespread energy system, in what instead appears to be the mere re-proposal of the model that has prevailed up until now since the industrial revolution of the mid-19th century.

It is basically the same framework on which the Mattei plan seems to take shape, about which, if possible, even less is known.Imagine that the most precise definition remains the same pronounced by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni during her inauguration speech in the Chamber (October 2022), that is, "a virtuous model of collaboration and growth between the European Union and African nations, also to counter the worrying spread of Islamist radicalism, especially in the sub-Saharan area .We would thus like to recover, after years in which we preferred to retreat, our strategic role in the Mediterranean".

In the following months some followed visits of Melons in Africa - Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Ethiopia - e the announcement that the plan will be illustrated next October.From a government capable of deny the crimes of Italian colonialism in Africa, which does not even discuss the impacts and meaning of ENI's presence in countries likeAlgeria or Libya, what can we expect?Isn't rediscovering the name and ideas of Enrico Mattei, in a world that has changed enormously in the meantime, once again a pure conservation tactic?Already in January Stefano Feltri on Tomorrow it was going straight to the point, talking about disguised colonialism:

The idea of “non-predatory cooperation” on energy with North Africa is ahistorical and a bit racist.In concrete terms, the Mattei plan translates into going to countries like Algeria, covering their territory with solar panels and then bringing the energy to Europe, leaving them a few crumbs for their trouble.Why should they accept?

If it is increasingly clear that it will be Africa the most important continent for decarbonising the world, certainly cannot be so by continuing to insist on the same production model that has so far caused exploitation and pollution, changing the energy source from which to draw as much as possible.

Preview image via What energy