Pesticides, emissions, ecosystem restoration:the uncertain fate of the Green Deal after the tractor protests

The farmers' demonstrations have already convinced Ursula von der Leyen to give up some pillars of the European "green strategy".And now others risk being set aside

The European elections in June will also be – or perhaps above all – a referendum on the environmental and climate policies of the European Union.The confirmation came from «tractor riot», which not only inflamed – in some cases literally – the squares across Europe but also gave an important boost to the electoral campaign.In the sights of farmers there are economic but also environmental issues, which often originate from Green Deal, the package of measures through which the EU aims to revolutionize its economy to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.Environmental and climate policies undoubtedly represent one of the main political legacies of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.While waiting to know whether the Green Deal will be strengthened, revised or even dismantled, the future of some key measures of the European strategy remains hanging by a thread.Even more so after the farmers' protests, which seem to have convinced the European leaders - but also the French government – to slow down on the most ambitious and contested measures.

CAP, pesticides and climate objectives:the first measures failed

On the eve of the European Council on 1 February, von der Leyen made a first attempt to meet the requests of the agricultural sector by postponing the entry into force of some environmental obligations provided for by the CAP, the common agricultural policy.There reform approved in 2021, it requires farmers who own more than 10 hectares to leave at least 4% of their arable land fallow.The obligation should have been triggered at the beginning of the year, but the tractor march on Brussels convinced the EU executive to postpone everything until 1 January 2025.A week after the European Council, von der Leyen made two more concessions as generous as they were unexpected.The first is the withdraw of the bill on pesticides, one of the key provisions of the Green Deal but also one of the most contested by farmers.The second concerns the emission reduction targets set for 2040.By that date, the European Commission proposed to achieve a 90% cut in climate-changing emissions compared to 1990 levels, but compared to the first drafts of the document, references to the objectives for the agricultural sector have disappeared.According to Alessandra Moretti, MEP of the Democratic Party, "these are certainly alarm bells", which reveal a "submissive attitude" on the part of Ursula von der Leyen.«Her main objective now is to be reconfirmed at the helm of the European Commission and to achieve this – explains Moretti – she needs to wink at certain movements that are further to the right compared to her political formation.But I find it unacceptable that he decides to renounce policies that have been carried out for five years."

The 166 bricks of the Green Deal

In short, the farmers' protests have already dealt some serious blows to the European Green Deal.The question now is another:will there be further steps backwards between now and the June elections?“There are risks, yes,” admits the PD MEP.On the various Green Deal dossiers, the divisions in Brussels and Strasbourg roughly follow the traditional border between right and left.On the one hand there are the Greens, the centre-left S&D and the centrists of Renew who vote in favor of the more ambitious measures.On the other there are the right-wing Ecr, of which Fratelli d'Italia is part, and Identity and Democracy (I&D), of which the League is part.However, the balance is tipped by the largest - and therefore most powerful - group in the European Parliament, the People's Party, which often calls for a softer and more gradual approach to the ecological transition.The Green Deal was unveiled for the first time in 2019 and today represents a legislative pachyderm made up of 166 different dossiers.Of these:58 have been definitively approved, 79 are still in the early stages of the process and 8 have been withdrawn or set aside.Completing the list are 21 measures that the European Parliament website lists as "close to adoption".

The last obstacle of Nature restoration law

Among these there is also the highly contested one Nature Restoration Act, on which the European Parliament could express its definitive opinion before the elections.Last November, the European institutions reached a broad agreement on the measure, which aims to restore at least 20% of the EU's terrestrial and marine areas by 2030 and restore all ecosystems by 2050.«Even if heavily modified, it is a poorly made proposal and should be rejected», explains a Open Herbert Dorfmann, MEP and EPP spokesperson for agriculture.The dossier could end up in the chamber in March, but the tractor protest could convince EU leaders to postpone everything until after the elections."If we can postpone or vote against it, I'm happy," Dorfmann specifies.Alessandra Moretti, on the other hand, is asking for definitive approval of the measure, according to which "it is not true that the legislation affects the agricultural sector, on the contrary it supports and protects it".

The other dossiers in the balance

But the Nature Restoration Law is not the only provision of the Green Deal that risks falling through.There are at least two other legislative initiatives that involve the agricultural sector in some way.The first concerns the Industrial Emissions Directive.«At the last trialogue – recalls Dorfmann – it was decided to exclude cattle, but stricter limits were set for emissions linked to pigs and poultry».The other dossier that could be affected by farmers' protests concerns the soil monitoring directive.In this case, however, the proposal still has to pass the Environment Commission of the European Parliament and, explains the EPP MEP, "it is unlikely that we will be able to have a vote in plenary before the elections".Other provisions of the Green Deal, which do not directly concern farmers, should proceed smoothly towards final approval.This is the case of the so-called «green homes directive», on which an agreement was reached at the end of 2023.Or the Ecodesign regulation, which has Alessandra Moretti as its first signatory and aims to establish minimum sustainability standards for the majority of products on the market."I don't think the text will slow down in any way," assures the PD MEP.Of course, the June elections remain in the background, which could consecrate the Green Deal but also send it to the attic.

Cover photo:EPA/Stephanie Lecocq | A farmers' protest in Brussels, Belgium (3 March 2023)